DESIGN ON THE LAND: the development of Landscape Architecture Norman T. Newton Belknap Harvard
COMMUNITY CENTERS AND STUDENT UNIONS Eugene D. Sternberg and Barbara E. Sternberg Van Hostrand Reinhold Company, New York.
DECISION AND CONTROL by Stafford Beer, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., New York, 1966 (3rd printing, 1970)
INDUSTRIAL DYNAMICS by Jay W. Forrester, M.I.T. Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1961. S.1O.5O.
PRINCIPLES OF SYSTEMS by Jay W. Forrester. Wright‐Allen Press, Inc., Cambridge, Mass., 1968.
PUBLIC INQUIRIES AS AN INSTRUMENT OF GOVERNMENT R.E. Wraith and G.B. Lamb George Allen & Unwin Ltd. for the Royal Institute of Public Administration, London 1971, £4.50.
SYSTEMS APPROACH AND THE CITY M.D. Mesarovic and A. Reisman (eds.) North‐Holland Publishing Co., Amsterdam and London, 1972.
SIMULATION IN THE CLASSROOM John L. Taylor and Rex Walford Penguin Books, London, 1972. 45p.
DEVELOPMENT BUILDING: THE TEAM APPROACH C.W. Griffin John Wiley & Sons, Inc. for the American Institute of Architects, New York, 1972.相似文献
We present a dynamic energy budget (DEB) model for marine mammals, coupled with a pharmacokinetic model of a lipophilic persistent toxicant. Inputs to the model are energy availability and lipid-normalized toxicant concentration in the environment. The model predicts individual growth, reproduction, bioaccumulation, and transfer of energy and toxicant from mothers to their young. We estimated all model parameters for the right whale; with these parameters, reduction in energy availability increases the age at first parturition, increases intervals between reproductive events, reduces the organisms' ability to buffer seasonal fluctuations, and increases its susceptibility to temporal shifts in the seasonal peak of energy availability. Reduction in energy intake increases bioaccumulation and the amount of toxicant transferred from mother to each offspring. With high energy availability, the toxicant load of offspring decreases with birth order. Contrary to expectations, this ordering may be reversed with lower energy availability. Although demonstrated with parameters for the right whale, these relationships between energy intake and energetics and pharmacokinetics of organisms are likely to be much more general. Results specific to right whales include energy assimilation estimates for the North Atlantic and southern right whale, influences of history of energy availability on reproduction, and a relationship between ages at first parturition and calving intervals. Our model provides a platform for further analyses of both individual and population responses of marine mammals to pollution, and to changes in energy availability, including those likely to arise through climate change. 相似文献
We present a new method for estimating a distribution of dispersal displacements (a dispersal kernel) from mark-recapture
data. One conventional method of calculating the dispersal kernel assumes that the distribution of displacements are Gaussian
(e.g. resulting from a diffusion process) and that individuals remain within sampled areas. The first assumption prohibits
an analysis of dispersal data that do not exhibit the Gaussian distribution (a common situation); the second assumption leads
to underestimation of dispersal distance because individuals that disperse outside of sampling areas are never recaptured.
Our method eliminates these two assumptions. In addition, the method can also accommodate mortality during a sampling period.
This new method uses integrodifference equations to express the probability of spatial mark-recapture data; associated dispersal,
survival, and recapture parameters are then estimated using a maximum likelihood method. We examined the accuracy of the estimators
by applying the method to simulated data sets. Our method suggests designs for future mark-recapture experiments.
Received: January 2004 / Revised: July 2005 相似文献
An ozone (O3) exposure study was conducted in Nashville, TN, using passive O3 samplers to measure six weekly outdoor, indoor, and personal O3 exposure estimates for a group of 10- to 12-yr-old elementary school children. Thirty-six children from two Nashville area communities (Inglewood and Hendersonville) participated in the O3 sampling program, and 99 children provided additional time-activity information by telephone interview. By design, this study coincided with the 1994 Nashville/Middle Tennessee Ozone Study conducted by the Southern Oxidants Study, which provided enhanced continuous ambient O3 monitoring across the Nashville area. Passive sampling estimated weekly average outdoor O3 concentrations from 0.011 to 0.O30 ppm in the urban Inglewood community and from 0.015 to 0.042 ppm in suburban Hendersonville. The maximum 1- and 8-hr ambient concentrations encountered at the Hendersonville continuous monitor exceeded the levels of the 1- and 8-hr metrics for the O3 National Ambient Air Quality Standard. Weekly average personal O3 exposures ranged from 0.0013 to 0.0064 ppm (7-31% of outdoor levels). Personal O3 exposures reflected the proportional amount of time spent in indoor and outdoor environments. Air-conditioned homes displayed very low indoor O3 concentrations, and homes using open windows and fans for ventilation displayed much higher concentrations. 相似文献
Emissions of ammonia were measured from livestock excreta and fertilisers applied to grass swards, from grazed paddocks, from decomposing grass herbage and from an animal house containing dairy cows. Emissions from urine, dung, slurry and fertilisers were determined using a system of wind tunnels with each tunnel covering an area of 1 m(2). Emissions from grazed swards were determined using a micrometeorological mass balance method. From the results of these measurements, together with other published information, an inventory for ammonia emissions has been calculated for grassland and livestock production systems over the UK as a whole. It is estimated that emissions from grassland and cattle and sheep production amount to about 230 kt NH(3)-N annually, while emissions from pig and poultry production amount to about 40 kt and 80 kt NH(3)-N, respectively. 相似文献
The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in lambda in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log lambdas, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log lambdas approximately - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population projections showed drastic declines in the polar bear population by the end of the 21st century. These projections were instrumental in the decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. 相似文献
