Restoring acidified streams in upland Wales: a modelling comparison of the chemical and biological effects of liming and reduced sulphate deposition

Increasing emphasis is being placed on the restoration of surface waters which have been affected by acidification. Amongst the possible strategies are management of the causes, by reducing acidic deposition, and management of the symptoms, by treating affected areas with basic material such as limestone. In few cases have there been comparisons of the likely effect of these two strategies on surface water chemistry and ecology, although there is widespread belief that the two are similar in outcome. At present, only a modelling approach permits such a comparison. This paper describes chemical and biological responses of three Welsh streams whose catchments were limed experimentally in 1987-1988 as part of the Llyn Brianne project. Actual changes are compared with simulated changes which occur following reduced acid deposition according to the hydrochemical model, MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwaters in Catchments). The results indicate that liming and 90% reduction in sulphate deposition reduce concentrations of toxic aluminium to similar levels. However, calcium concentrations and pH were increased by liming to values which were high by comparison with conditions simulated at low acid deposition, either in the past or future. Trout density increased in two of the streams following liming to levels similar to those simulated under low acid deposition. By contrast, the aquatic invertebrate fauna changed after liming so that streams acquired species typical of higher calcium concentrations than those simulated under low acid deposition. Species characteristic of 'soft water' communities were apparently lost, although more data are required to separate treatment effects from random change in the longer term. The 'soft water' community also declined in the model as a result of acidification, indicating that both liming and acid deposition resulted in a different faunal community from that prior to acidification. The results support those who conclude that liming is suitable for the restoration or protection of a fishery, but indicate that there may be other ramifications, for example to conservation, which must be considered when liming is implemented. However, the simulation of biological conditions under low acid deposition involves extrapolation from the initial data base. Further data are now required to assess empirically the likely biological character of British streams which have low base cation concentrations unaffected by acid deposition.     

Forced dispersal of juvenile guanacos (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Lama guanicoe</Emphasis>): causes,variation, and fates of individuals dispersing at different times

We examined adult-juvenile conflict in the guanaco (Lama guanicoe). During spring, territorial males become increasingly aggressive toward all juveniles born the previous year and begin expelling them from family groups. In an apparent effort to reduce aggression, juveniles display submissive crouches when being observed, approached, or attacked by the territorial male. Therefore, we assessed the influence of juvenile submissive behavior on the timing of dispersal and also examined if dispersal time was related to survival and reproductive performance as adults. We also evaluated hypotheses regarding the evolution of juvenile mammalian dispersal in the context of if and how each may favor the forced dispersal of juvenile guanacos by territorial males. Juveniles generally dispersed in late spring and early summer, and a nearly equal proportion of females (n=46; 48%) and males (n=49; 52%) dispersed. More-submissive animals generally dispersed later than less-submissive animals. Juvenile sex and dispersal time were not related to survival. In contrast, juvenile sex and dispersal time were related to reproductive performance. The probability of reproducing was highest when juveniles dispersed early and decreased with increasing time in family groups prior to dispersal. The largest proportion of juveniles was forced to disperse during a 2-week interval following the peak of the breeding season. Competition for food resources is likely very intense at this juncture and territorial males may force older juveniles to disperse in order to divert food resources to younger neonates. Additionally, juveniles may be forced to disperse after territorial males mate their mothers to prevent lost mating opportunities, because females leave territories when their offspring disperse and possibly prior to mating with males. We conclude that the forced dispersal of juvenile guanacos by territorial males is ultimately driven by competition for food resources on territories. The timing of dispersal, however, may be tempered by the chronology of matings between territorial males and particular adult females, and/or genetic relatedness between territorial males and juveniles.     

A preliminary study on the use of (10)Be in forensic radioecology of nuclear explosion sites

Cosmogenic (10)Be, known for use in dating studies, unexpectedly is also produced in nuclear explosions with an atom yield almost comparable to (e.g.) (137)Cs. There are major production routes via (13)C(n, alpha)(10)Be, from carbon dioxide in the air and the organic explosives, possibly from other bomb components and to a minor extent from the direct fission reaction. Although the detailed bomb components are speculative, carbon was certainly present in the explosives and an order of magnitude calculation is possible. The (n, alpha) cross-section was determined by irradiating graphite in a nuclear reactor, and the resulting (10)Be estimated by Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) giving a cross-section of 34.5+/-0.7mb (6-9.3MeV), within error of previous work. (10)Be should have applications in forensic radioecology. Historical environmental samples from Hiroshima, and Semipalatinsk (Kazakhstan) showed two to threefold (10)Be excesses compared with the background cosmogenic levels. A sample from Lake Chagan (a Soviet nuclear cratering experiment) contained more (10)Be than previously reported soils. (10)Be may be useful for measuring the fast neutron dose near the Hiroshima bomb hypocenter at neutron energies double those previously available.     

Environment-specific elasticity and sensitivity analysis of the stochastic growth rate

For matrix population models, analyses of how sensitive the population growth rate is to changes in vital rates (i.e. perturbations) are important for studies of life history evolution as well as for management and conservation of threatened species. There are two types of sensitivity analyses corresponding to absolute (sensitivity) or relative (elasticity) changes in the vital rates and both types can be applied to both deterministic and stochastic matrix population models. To date, most empirical studies of elasticity and sensitivity of the stochastic growth rate have examined the response to perturbations in the vital rates in a complete set of possible environments. However, it is often of interest to examine the response to perturbations occurring in only a subset of the possible environments. This has been done for periodic time-varying models elsewhere, but here we describe a recently published method for calculating the environment-specific sensitivity and elasticity of the stochastic growth rate and apply this method to data. These environment-specific perturbation analyses provide a logical way of dividing the sensitivity and elasticity among the environments. They give important insight into the selection regime in different environments and can provide valuable information for making management decisions and management evaluations in stochastic environments.     

Measuring impacts on species with models and metrics of varying ecological and computational complexity

Approaches to assess the impacts of landscape disturbance scenarios on species range from metrics based on patterns of occurrence or habitat to comprehensive models that explicitly include ecological processes. The choice of metrics and models affects how impacts are interpreted and conservation decisions. We explored the impacts of 3 realistic disturbance scenarios on 4 species with different ecological and taxonomic traits. We used progressively more complex models and metrics to evaluate relative impact and rank of scenarios on the species. Models ranged from species distribution models that relied on implicit assumptions about environmental factors and species presence to highly parameterized spatially explicit population models that explicitly included ecological processes and stochasticity. Metrics performed consistently in ranking different scenarios in order of severity primarily when variation in impact was driven by habitat amount. However, they differed in rank for cases where dispersal dynamics were critical in influencing metapopulation persistence. Impacts of scenarios on species with low dispersal ability were better characterized using models that explicitly captured these processes. Metapopulation capacity provided rank orders that most consistently correlated with those from highly parameterized and data-rich models and incorporated information about dispersal with little additional computational and data cost. Our results highlight the importance of explicitly considering species’ ecology, spatial configuration of habitat, and disturbance when choosing indicators of species persistence. We suggest using hybrid approaches that are a mixture of simple and complex models to improve multispecies assessments.     

Planning implications from the interactions between renewable energy programs and carbon regulation

Complex relationships exist between programs to reduce carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the electricity sector and programs to promote renewable electricity generation. Simulation modeling of three scenarios in the UK electricity sector are used to identify potential interactions between these programs. A strict CO₂ cap can result in a renewable electricity requirement being easily met. Conversely, the renewables quota could be required under low natural gas prices to keep electricity suppliers from switching from coal to gas. Similarly, CO₂ trading can reduce renewables deployment levels because purchased CO₂ allowances replace renewables. Therefore, both programs are required to ensure CO₂ and renewables goals. The planning implications for administrative procedures and renewables subsidies are also discussed.     

Disciplined Planning,Structured Participation,and Collaborative Modeling — Applying Shared Vision Planning to Water Resources

Participatory planning applied to water resources has sparked significant interest and debate during the last decade. Recognition that models play a significant role in the formulation and implementation of design and management strategies has encouraged the profession to consider how such models can be best implemented. Shared Vision Planning (SVP) is a disciplined planning approach that combines traditional water resources planning methodologies with innovations such as structured public participation and the use of collaborative modeling, resulting in a more complete understanding and an integrative decision support tool. This study reviews these three basic components of SVP and explains how they are incorporated into a unified planning approach. The successful application of SVP is explored in three studies involving planning challenges: the National Drought Study, the Lake Ontario‐St. Lawrence River Study, and the Apalachicola‐Chattahoochee‐Flint/Alabama‐Coosa‐Tallapoosa River Basin Study. The article concludes by summarizing the advantages and limitations of this planning approach.     

Habitat loss, trophic collapse, and the decline of ecosystem services

The provisioning of sustaining goods and services that we obtain from natural ecosystems is a strong economic justification for the conservation of biological diversity. Understanding the relationship between these goods and services and changes in the size, arrangement, and quality of natural habitats is a fundamental challenge of natural resource management. In this paper, we describe a new approach to assessing the implications of habitat loss for loss of ecosystem services by examining how the provision of different ecosystem services is dominated by species from different trophic levels. We then develop a mathematical model that illustrates how declines in habitat quality and quantity lead to sequential losses of trophic diversity. The model suggests that declines in the provisioning of services will initially be slow but will then accelerate as species from higher trophic levels are lost at faster rates. Comparison of these patterns with empirical examples of ecosystem collapse (and assembly) suggest similar patterns occur in natural systems impacted by anthropogenic change. In general, ecosystem goods and services provided by species in the upper trophic levels will be lost before those provided by species lower in the food chain. The decrease in terrestrial food chain length predicted by the model parallels that observed in the oceans following overexploitation. The large area requirements of higher trophic levels make them as susceptible to extinction as they are in marine systems where they are systematically exploited. Whereas the traditional species-area curve suggests that 50% of species are driven extinct by an order-of-magnitude decline in habitat abundance, this magnitude of loss may represent the loss of an entire trophic level and all the ecosystem services performed by the species on this trophic level.