安全科学的本质

本文探索性提出了安全科学的本质，借以揭示安全与事故同预防、控制事故的内在联系。     

Couples experiences of receiving uncertain results following prenatal microarray or exome sequencing: A mixed-methods systematic review

Background

Tests in pregnancy such as chromosomal microarray analysis and exome sequencing are increasing diagnostic yield for fetal structural anomalies, but have greater potential to result in uncertain findings. This systematic review investigated the experiences of prospective parents about receiving uncertain results from these tests.

Methods

A systematic search of three electronic databases was conducted. Data extraction was performed for studies that met the eligibility and quality criteria. Results were synthesised following the principles of thematic analysis.

Results

Fourteen studies (10 qualitative, 4 quantitative) were included. Findings were grouped into three overarching themes. Sources of uncertainty included the testing procedure, the diagnosis and prognosis, and health professionals' own uncertainty. The clinical impact of the uncertainty included parents struggling to make clinical decisions with the information available, the emotional impact included decisional-regret, shock, worry and feeling overwhelmed. To manage the uncertainty, parents sought support from healthcare professionals, friends, family, the internet and other parents as well as remaining hopeful.

Conclusions

Prospective parents experience a myriad of uncertainties in the prenatal setting, which must be handled sensitively. Future research should explore optimal ways of managing uncertainty to minimise harm. Recommendations are made for discussing uncertainty during pre- and post-test counseling.     

用科学发展观指导河北省环保工作

河北省环境保护工作非常重要,任务又很艰巨,因此必须用科学发展观指导河北省环保工作。以人为本,着力解决关系人民群众切身利益的环境问题;在统筹发展中促进人与自然的和谐发展;坚持环保创建工作,以典型引路,树立协调发展的各类先进典型;解放思想,转变思路,突出重点,努力改善环保质量。     

Chorionic villus sampling utilization following reports of a possible association with fetal limb defects

Prenatal diagnosis choices were reviewed in 473 women who presented for genetic counselling prior to 11 weeks' gestation for the indication of advanced maternal age. Group A consisted of 336 patients who were unaware of a possible association between chorionic villus sampling (CVS) and limb defects. Group B consisted of 137 patients who were provided this information. Fifty-one per cent of patients in group A and 45 per cent of patients in group B chose CVS. This difference was not significant by χ² analysis (P = 0·7). Patterns of prenatal diagnosis procedure utilization from 1987 to 1992 revealed a significant reduction in CVS utilization accompanied by a corresponding increase in amniocentesis after the association between CVS and limb defects was publicized. Referrals for CVS counselling also significantly declined. However, acceptance rates did not change for those patients who received genetic counselling. First-trimester genetic counselling, including a discussion regarding a possible association between CVS and limb defects, helps patients make informed decisions concerning prenatal diagnosis options, and, in our population, resulted in no change in CVS acceptance rates.     

我国省域投保行为的空间统计分析

通过空间自相关度量检验与空间关联局域LISA分析,对我国2009年省域寿险、财险、健康险、意外险投保行为的空间分布进行空间统计研究,并对我国1999-2009年10年间的人身保险、财产保险的购买行为进行空间演变研究.研究认为,2009年我国投保行为在空间上分布呈不均衡特征；2009年寿险与财险的投保行为空间集聚程度比健康险与意外险的集聚程度高；1999-2009年,我国省域投保行为在我国版图空间分布上呈强弱分化现象,趋势明显.该研究价值在于通过空间统计分析,了解我国省域居民投保行为在空间上的分布特征,从而为保险企业制定宏观经营战略,为国家保险监管部门提供可视化的数据.     

Abundance of small cetaceans in waters of the central Spanish Mediterranean

Seasonal aerial surveys were conducted in the waters of the central Spanish Mediterranean from 2001 to 2003 using the line transect sampling methodology to estimate cetacean abundance. The density of the three most abundant species, striped dolphin (Stenella coeruleoalba), bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) and Risso’s dolphins (Grampus griseus), was estimated. In the case of the first two species, the density was estimated accounting for the proportion of submerged animals, while for Risso’s dolphin only the surface density could be estimated. The striped dolphin was the most abundant species in the study area with a mean density of 0.489 dolphins km⁻² (95% CI = 0.339–0.705) and a mean abundance of 15,778 dolphins (95% CI = 10,940–22,756). This density is comparable to that obtained in the International Ligurian Sea Cetacean Sanctuary. Striped dolphins were observed throughout the whole year and no seasonal changes in the density were detected. The mean density of bottlenose dolphins was an order of magnitude lower than that of striped dolphins (0.041 dolphins km⁻²; 95% CI = 0.023–0.075) with a mean abundance of 1,333 dolphins (95% CI = 739–2,407). The Risso’s dolphin had a surface estimated density of 0.015 dolphins km⁻² (95% CI = 0.005–0.046) and a mean abundance of 493 dolphins (95% CI = 162–1,498). These results provide valuable biological information useful to develop conservation plans and establish a baseline for future population trend studies.     

聚落景观格局的空间粒度转换响应及其机理分析——以江苏省镇江地区为例

以镇江地区第二次土地调查（2009年）1〖DK〗∶10 000土地利用现状数据为主要数据源,运用GIS和景观格局分析方法,研究了按照中心属性值法和面积最大法从现状数据粗化为30 m、100 m、500 m和1 000 m栅格和矢量数据的聚落景观格局变化特征及机理。结果显示：最大面积值法生成数据各景观类型的面积相对误差较大,特别是其它土地,在空间粒度为1 000 m时消失,中心属性值法在空间粒度转换中的面积相对误差较小,并且是随机的;在聚落景观变化方面,研究区斑块密度、聚集度指数和斑块结合度指数降低,分维数、最大斑块指数和平均邻近距离升高,说明聚落景观斑块破碎化降低、斑块面积扩大并趋于成片成团、空间分布更为离散等特征;聚落景观格局变化表明最大面积值法突出整体分布规律,中心属性值法突出聚落景观的空间分布特性;基于最大面积值法的聚落景观格局的空间粒度转换响应与其斑块面积结构和空间邻接有所关联     

江苏镇江地区聚落体系的空间集聚性多级分形特征

为定量研究市域尺度上的聚落体系的分形特征,以ArcGIS9.3软件为平台,选取江苏镇江地区团聚状聚落体系为研究对象,通过计算豪斯道夫维数分析了聚落体系规模分布的分形特征,通过计算关联维数和集聚维数,从聚落要素的空间相关性和聚落随机集聚的向心性两方面,分析了聚落体系空间结构的分形特征,对聚落体系的空间集聚性的多级分形特征作了重点探讨。结果表明：镇江地区团聚状聚落体系在规模分布和空间结构上都具有比较明显的分形特征,表现出自相似结构;镇江地区团聚状聚落体系的空间集聚性存在多级分形的特征,中心村的空间集聚能力强于城市和镇;地形和聚落体系的发育程度是影响聚落体系的空间集聚性主要原因。因此,在以后的工作中可以利用分形思想进行聚落体系规划,有效地利用地理空间资源     

水泥二氧化碳排放量预测及监测研究

以甘肃省近几年水泥工业生产过程中的熟料产量为数据来源,依据《省级温室气体清单编制指南》和《IPCC指南》中推荐的方法,计算二氧化碳近几年的排放量。采用灰色理论法,利用灰色理论模型,借助MATLAB软件建立了GM(1,1)模型。结果表明,模型相对误差均在9.0%以下,级比偏差均小于0.1,达到模型精度要求。利用模型预测甘肃省水泥工业生产过程二氧化碳的排放量呈逐年上升趋势,预计到2015年将超过1 500万t。介绍了国内外二氧化碳的监测现状,将其监测方法归纳为原位仪器测量和采样分析两大类,同时设计了二氧化碳监测方案,提出水泥企业二氧化碳排放的监测方法和减排措施。     

NaHSO3对紫球藻生长和物质积累的影响

为优化紫球藻营养盐配方,降低养殖成本,提高生物量和物质积累,研究了不同浓度的安全环保的植物循环光合磷酸化促进剂——NaHSO3 (≤4mol/L)溶液对盐生杜氏藻生长和光合色素含量及蛋白含量积累的影响.结果表明,NaHSO3可显著促进盐生杜氏藻生长,提高叶绿素a(Chl a)和b(Ch1 b)含量、叶绿素总量(Chl)、类胡萝卜素含量(Car)和蛋白含量;促进效应随浓度增加表现为先升后降,低浓度(＜ 1mol/L)效应较好,以0.50mol/L为最佳.