Permutation/randomization-based inference for environmental data

Quantitative inference from environmental contaminant data is almost exclusively from within the classic Neyman/Pearson (N/P) hypothesis-testing model, by which the mean serves as the fundamental quantitative measure, but which is constrained by random sampling and the assumption of normality in the data. Permutation/randomization-based inference originally forwarded by R. A. Fisher derives probability directly from the proportion of the occurrences of interest and is not dependent upon the distribution of data or random sampling. Foundationally, the underlying logic and the interpretation of the significance of the two models vary, but inference using either model can often be successfully applied. However, data examples from airborne environmental fungi (mold), asbestos in settled dust, and 1,2,3,4-tetrachlorobenzene (TeCB) in soil demonstrate potentially misleading inference using traditional N/P hypothesis testing based upon means/variance compared to permutation/randomization inference using differences in frequency of detection (Δf _d). Bootstrapping and permutation testing, which are extensions of permutation/randomization, confirm calculated p values via Δf _d and should be utilized to verify the appropriateness of a given data analysis by either model.     

Models for the field-based toxicity of copper and zinc salts to wheat in 11 Australian soils and comparison to laboratory-based models

Laboratory-based relationships that model the phytotoxicity of metals using soil properties have been developed. This paper presents the first field-based phytotoxicity relationships. Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) was grown at 11 Australian field sites at which soil was spiked with copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn) salts. Toxicity was measured as inhibition of plant growth at 8 weeks and grain yield at harvest. The added Cu and Zn EC10 values for both endpoints ranged from approximately 3 to 4760 mg/kg. There were no relationships between field-based 8-week biomass and grain yield toxicity values for either metal. Cu toxicity was best modelled using pH and organic carbon content while Zn toxicity was best modelled using pH and the cation exchange capacity. The best relationships estimated toxicity within a factor of two of measured values. Laboratory-based phytotoxicity relationships could not accurately predict field-based phytotoxicity responses.     

The importance of incorporating functional habitats into conservation planning for highly mobile species in dynamic systems

The distribution of mobile species in dynamic systems can vary greatly over time and space. Estimating their population size and geographic range can be problematic and affect the accuracy of conservation assessments. Scarce data on mobile species and the resources they need can also limit the type of analytical approaches available to derive such estimates. We quantified change in availability and use of key ecological resources required for breeding for a critically endangered nomadic habitat specialist, the Swift Parrot (Lathamus discolor). We compared estimates of occupied habitat derived from dynamic presence‐background (i.e., presence‐only data) climatic models with estimates derived from dynamic occupancy models that included a direct measure of food availability. We then compared estimates that incorporate fine‐resolution spatial data on the availability of key ecological resources (i.e., functional habitats) with more common approaches that focus on broader climatic suitability or vegetation cover (due to the absence of fine‐resolution data). The occupancy models produced significantly (P < 0.001) smaller (up to an order of magnitude) and more spatially discrete estimates of the total occupied area than climate‐based models. The spatial location and extent of the total area occupied with the occupancy models was highly variable between years (131 and 1498 km²). Estimates accounting for the area of functional habitats were significantly smaller (2–58% [SD 16]) than estimates based only on the total area occupied. An increase or decrease in the area of one functional habitat (foraging or nesting) did not necessarily correspond to an increase or decrease in the other. Thus, an increase in the extent of occupied area may not equate to improved habitat quality or function. We argue these patterns are typical for mobile resource specialists but often go unnoticed because of limited data over relevant spatial and temporal scales and lack of spatial data on the availability of key resources. Understanding changes in the relative availability of functional habitats is crucial to informing conservation planning and accurately assessing extinction risk for mobile resource specialists.     

Arctic marine mammal population status,sea ice habitat loss,and conservation recommendations for the 21st century

Arctic marine mammals (AMMs) are icons of climate change, largely because of their close association with sea ice. However, neither a circumpolar assessment of AMM status nor a standardized metric of sea ice habitat change is available. We summarized available data on abundance and trend for each AMM species and recognized subpopulation. We also examined species diversity, the extent of human use, and temporal trends in sea ice habitat for 12 regions of the Arctic by calculating the dates of spring sea ice retreat and fall sea ice advance from satellite data (1979–2013). Estimates of AMM abundance varied greatly in quality, and few studies were long enough for trend analysis. Of the AMM subpopulations, 78% (61 of 78) are legally harvested for subsistence purposes. Changes in sea ice phenology have been profound. In all regions except the Bering Sea, the duration of the summer (i.e., reduced ice) period increased by 5–10 weeks and by >20 weeks in the Barents Sea between 1979 and 2013. In light of generally poor data, the importance of human use, and forecasted environmental changes in the 21st century, we recommend the following for effective AMM conservation: maintain and improve comanagement by local, federal, and international partners; recognize spatial and temporal variability in AMM subpopulation response to climate change; implement monitoring programs with clear goals; mitigate cumulative impacts of increased human activity; and recognize the limits of current protected species legislation.     

Effects of the shoot density of seagrass on fish and decapods: are correlation evident over larger spatial scales?

Two conflicting models for the organisation of assemblages of fish and decapods associated with seagrass over large spatial scales, make contradictory predictions about the relationship between density of seagrass shoots and abundance, or diversity, of animals. We tested the predictions of both models by sampling small lish and decapods associated with two species of seagrass (Zostera capricorni Aschers and Posidonia australis Hook) at up to 16 sites within several estuaries in New South Wales, Australia, for 1.5 yr (December 1988 to March 1990). Variation in density of Z. capricorni shoots explained very little of the variation in abundance of animals. However, abundance of one species, the grass shirmp Macrobrachium intermedium, was more closely related to the density of shoots during non-recruitment seasons, suggesting that predation or emigration of individuals after settlement was greater in sparse beds. The effect of variation in density of P. australis shoots was confounded with consistent distribution patterns of most fish and decapod species. As a result, data from P. australis did not provide good tests of the hypotheses. We conclude that density of seagrass shoots explained very little of the large-scale variation in abundance of associated fish and decapods. The data do, however, support the inodel which predicts that the abundance of animals among separate seagrass beds will follow the supply of new individuals to them.     

Visions and strategies for growth management: Teller County/Woodland Park example

This article is the third in a series prepared to explain the Teller County growth management planning process. Once it was determined by local decision-makers that Teller County, Colorado, would pursue a policy of directed growth, concepts based on this policy were developed. These concepts presented visions and options for the future. Landscape plans then were developed for Teller County and the City of Woodland Park planning area so that these options could be visualized by local leaders and the public. The landscape plans were used as part of the ongoing citizen involvement process to inform the public about the options for growth management. To provide even more information, detailed designs were developed for specific areas in the county. From the landscape plan, public involvement effort, and detailed designs, specific implementation measures were identified, discussed, and adopted. These measures included guidelines for administration, so that county and city goals could be linked to the actual day-to-day management of development proposals. Paper 3 in a series of 3.     

Utilization of prenatal cytogenetic diagnosis in women of advanced maternal age in Australia, 1979–1982

This paper reports the results of a complete national survey to measure utilization rates of prenatal cytogenetic diagnosis (P.C.D.) in women of advanced maternal age in Australia. P.C.D. has been available throughout Australia for the last decade. Every laboratory in Australia providing a P.C.D. service for the years 1979–1982 took part in this study. Utilization rates (both National and State rates) by ages of mothers, are presented. Big interstate differences exist. The 1982 National P.C.D. utilization rate for pregnant women who were 40 years of age and over was 38.8 per cent, and this rate has shown an average annual increase of 9 per cent. In those four States which offered P.C.D. to pregnant women of 35 years or over the median utilization rate was 20 per cent. These Australian rates indicate an under-utilization of P.C.D. services with (in 1982) 50–80 per cent of ‘at risk’ women not being tested. Factors which influence this are discussed.     

Prenatal analysis of the insulin receptor gene in a family with leprechaunism

We report on the prenatal diagnosis of a fetus at risk of leprechaunism. We had previously determined the nature of the causative mutation in the insulin receptor gene in this family. The mutation removes a restriction site for the enzyme Mbo II. Genomic DNA was extracted from a chorionic villus sample and the 3′ half of exon 2 was amplified by the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) followed by restriction digest. Using this method, we correctly predicted an unaffected child.     

Oral teratoma (epignathus) with intracranial extension: A report of two cases

Epignathi are unusual congenital tumours presenting as oropharyngeal masses, often resulting in rapid asphyxia following birth. Occasionally, intracranial extension of the tumour is present, and two such cases are described. The presence of this complication, diagnosable by ultrasound examination, indicates that aggressive surgical treatment is inappropriate.