Power evaluation of focused cluster tests

Many statistical tests have been developed to assess the significance of clusters of disease located around known sources of environmental contaminants, also known as focused disease clusters. The majority of focused-cluster tests were designed to detect a particular spatial pattern of clustering, one in which the disease cluster centers around the pollution source and declines in a radial fashion with distance. However, other spatial patterns of environmentally related disease clusters are likely given that the spatial dispersion patterns of environmental contaminants, and thus human exposure, depend on a number of factors (i.e., meteorology and topography). For this study, data were simulated with five different spatial patterns of disease clusters, reflecting potential pollutant dispersion scenarios: (1) a radial effect decreasing with increasing distance, (2) a radial effect with a defined peak and decreasing with distance, (3) a simple angular effect, (4) an angular effect decreasing with increasing distance and (5) an angular effect with a defined peak and decreasing with distance. The power to detect each type of spatially distributed disease cluster was evaluated using Stone’s Maximum Likelihood Ratio Test, Tango’s Focused Test, Bithell’s Linear Risk Score Test, and variations of the Lawson–Waller Score Test. Study findings underscore the importance of considering environmental contaminant dispersion patterns, particularly directional effects, with respect to focused-cluster test selection in cluster investigations. The effect of extra variation in risk also is considered, although its effect is not substantial in terms of the power of tests.     

Tracking Chinese newspaper coverage of elephant ivory through topic modeling

Mass media worldwide has contributed to increasing awareness of the illegal wildlife trade and its significant impact on wildlife conservation. We used mass media coverage as a proxy for macro-level public opinion to analyze the media framing of elephant ivory in 6394 Chinese newspaper articles published from 2000 to 2021 and thus determine the effects of wildlife policies on public opinion. We focused on 2 events: the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) approval of China as a trading partner in the purchase and import of ivory stockpiles from Africa in July 2008 and the Chinese government's announcement of a domestic ivory ban in December 2016. Using latent Dirichlet allocation topic modeling, we identified 8 topics about elephant ivory and grouped them into 3 frames: ivory arts and culture, ivory crimes, and elephant conservation. Over the last 2 decades, topics related to ivory crimes remained the most prevalent in news articles. Topics about ivory arts and culture showed a significant shift in media salience before and after the 2 events (from 0.44 to 0.19 and from 0.08 to 0.15, respectively, p < 0.05), whereas the other 2 frames did not change significantly. Contrary to popular belief, our results indicated that Chinese macro-level public opinion on ivory had become more negative following the CITES approval of ivory importation and less negative after the ivory ban announcement, at least for certain periods. The relationship between mass media, public opinion, and wildlife trade policies is complex and requires further examination of the sociopolitical dynamics that influence media narratives. Our results showed the value of topic modeling in monitoring and assessing media representations of wildlife issues in the era of big data. Conservationists should remain vigilant of mass media coverage and collaborate with media practitioners to produce comprehensive narratives on wildlife issues if resources permit.     

Practical guide to coproduction in conservation science

We considered a series of conservation-related research projects on the island of Pemba, Tanzania, to reflect on the broad significance of Beier et al.’s recommendations for linking conservation science with practical conservation outcomes. The implementation of just some of their suggestions can advance a successful coproduction of actionable science by small research teams. Key elements include, first, scientists and managers working together in the field to ensure feedback in real time; second, questions jointly identified by managers and researchers to facilitate engaged collaboration; third, conducting research at multiple sites, thereby broadening managers’ abilities to reach multiple stakeholders; and fourth, establishing a multidisciplinary team because most of the concerns of local managers require input from multiple disciplines.     

Intra-annual dynamics of water stress in the central Indian Highlands from 2002 to 2012

India’s continued development depends on the availability of adequate water. This paper applies a data-driven approach to estimate the intra-annual dynamics of water stress across the central Indian Highlands over the period 2002–2012. We investigate the spatial distribution of water demanding sectors including industry, domestic, irrigation, livestock and thermal power generation. We also examine the vulnerability of urban centers within the study area to water stress. We find that 74 % of the area of the central Indian Highlands experienced water stress (defined as demand exceeding supply) for 4 or more months out of the year. The rabi (winter) season irrigation drives the intra-annual water stress across the landscape. The Godavari basin experiences the most surface water stress while the Ganga and Narmada basins experience water stress due to groundwater deficits as a result of rabi irrigation. All urban centers experience water stress at some time during a year. Urban centers in the Godavari basin are considerably water stressed, for example, Achalpur, Nagpur and Chandrapur experience water stress 8 months out of the year. Irrigation dominates water use accounting for 95 % of the total water demand, with substantial increases in irrigated land over the last decade. Managing land use to promote hydrologic functions will become increasingly important as water stress increases.     

Large eddy simulation of flow and scalar transport in a vegetated channel

Predicting flow and mass transport in vegetated regions has a broad range of applications in ecology and engineering practice. This paper presents large eddy simulation (LES) of turbulent flow and scalar transport within a fully developed open-channel with submerged vegetation. To properly represent the scalar transport, an additional diffusivity was introduced within the canopy to account for the contribution of stem wakes, which were not resolved by the LES, to turbulent diffusion. The LES produced good agreement with the velocity and concentration fields measured in a flume experiment. The simulation revealed a secondary flow distributed symmetrically about the channel centerline, which differed significantly from the circulation in a bare channel. The secondary circulation accelerated the vertical spread of the plume both within and above the canopy layer. Quadrant analysis was used to identify the form and shape of canopy-scale turbulent structures within and above the vegetation canopy. Within the canopy, sweep events contributed more to momentum transfer than ejection events, whereas the opposite occurred above the canopy. The coherent structures were similar to those observed in terrestrial canopies, but smaller in scale due to the constraint of the water surface.     

Future methane emissions from the heavy-duty natural gas transportation sector for stasis,high, medium,and low scenarios in 2035

Today’s heavy-duty natural gas–fueled fleet is estimated to represent less than 2% of the total fleet. However, over the next couple of decades, predictions are that the percentage could grow to represent as much as 50%. Although fueling switching to natural gas could provide a climate benefit relative to diesel fuel, the potential for emissions of methane (a potent greenhouse gas) from natural gas–fueled vehicles has been identified as a concern. Since today’s heavy-duty natural gas–fueled fleet penetration is low, today’s total fleet-wide emissions will be also be low regardless of per vehicle emissions. However, predicted growth could result in a significant quantity of methane emissions. To evaluate this potential and identify effective options for minimizing emissions, future growth scenarios of heavy-duty natural gas–fueled vehicles, and compressed natural gas and liquefied natural gas fueling stations that serve them, have been developed for 2035, when the populations could be significant. The scenarios rely on the most recent measurement campaign of the latest manufactured technology, equipment, and vehicles reported in a companion paper as well as projections of technology and practice advances. These “pump-to-wheels”(PTW) projections do not include methane emissions outside of the bounds of the vehicles and fuel stations themselves and should not be confused with a complete wells-to-wheels analysis. Stasis, high, medium, and low scenario PTW emissions projections for 2035 were 1.32%, 0.67%, 0.33%, and 0.15% of the fuel used. The scenarios highlight that a large emissions reductions could be realized with closed crankcase operation, improved best practices, and implementation of vent mitigation technologies. Recognition of the potential pathways for emissions reductions could further enhance the heavy-duty transportation sectors ability to reduce carbon emissions.

Implications: Newly collected pump-to-wheels methane emissions data for current natural gas technologies were combined with future market growth scenarios, estimated technology advancements, and best practices to examine the climate benefit of future fuel switching. The analysis indicates the necessary targets of efficiency, methane emissions, market penetration, and best practices necessary to enable a pathway for natural gas to reduce the carbon intensity of the heavy-duty transportation sector.     

Determination of relative assay response factors for toxic chlorinated and brominated dioxins/furans using an enzyme immunoassay (EIA) and a chemically-activated luciferase gene expression cell bioassay (CALUX)

Determination of toxic activity requires knowledge of both the concentration and toxicity to evaluate the risk for adverse human health and environmental effects. A chemically-activated luciferase gene expression cell bioassay system (CALUX) and an antibody-based method enzyme immunoassay (EIA) were used to detect the dioxin-like response of several polybrominated, polychlorinated, and polybrominated/chlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins/furans (PBDDs/Fs, PCDDs/Fs, and PBCDDs/Fs, respectively). It has been suggested that the biological activity of the brominated and mixed bromo/chloro compounds is similar to their chlorinated analogues (measured by binding to the Ah receptor). PBDD/F, PCDD/F, and PBCDD/F laboratory standards exhibited biological activity ranging over three orders of magnitude. The highest relative potency (REP) values from CALUX analysis, when compared to 2,3,7,8-TCDD, were 2,3,7,8-TBDD at 0.99 (± 0.07), 1,2,3,7,8-PeCDD at 0.69, and 2-Br-3,7,8-TriCDD at 0.72 (± 0.02). Cross-reactivities were calculated using EIA for several PBDDs/Fs and PBCDDs. The highest percent cross-reactivity was found for 2,3,7,8-TBDD at 138 (± 34%), and 2,3,7-TriBDD at 84 (± 36%).     

Improving the Evaluation of Conservation Programs

Abstract: The evaluation of conservation programs is rare but increasingly important in improving their effectiveness. Regular evaluations of conservation programs and the implementation of recommendations resulting from such assessments are infrequent because of resistance by participants and lack of funding. Evaluations may be internal or external, depending on the purpose of the review and how broadly it is focused. We strongly recommend external peer review of long-term complex conservation programs every 5 years, supported by more frequent (annual) internal reviews. Criteria for success must encompass both biological and social measures and include learning and the application of new knowledge to management. Evaluations must also go beyond monitoring to assess the value of the program. We emphasize the need to include the organization and function of a conservation program (the process) in any evaluation in addition to substantive criteria for success, which usually involve biological measures (numbers). A dysfunctional program organization and process can as effectively cripple a conservation effort as can a major biological catastrophe. We provide examples of different types of conservation program evaluations, including moderated workshops and case-study analysis, and provide advice on the logistics and organization of the review, emphasizing the importance of the evaluation process itself to a successful outcome. One important aspect of an evaluation is having an individual with leadership ability and considerable expertise to organize the format and oversee the review process itself. Second, it is essential at the outset to ensure agreement among the program participants and the review committee on the goals and objectives of the conservation program, what is to be evaluated, and the criteria for defining success. Finally, the best evaluations are inclusive and involve all participants and stakeholders.     

Analyzing maps of dispersal around a single focus

The spatial pattern of organisms may be used to characterize their dispersal, quantify spread or estimate the point of introduction of an alien species. Their distribution may be represented by maps of individuals, or by counts or by presence/absence at known positions within a sampled area. The problems and relative merits of these different forms of data for spatial inference are discussed. Three datasets concerning dispersal from a single focus are analyzed: counts of aphids, Rhopalosiphum padi and Sitobion avenae, on barley plants, Hordeum vulgare, grown in experi- mental trays; mapped locations of couch grass, Elymus repens, tillers within plots of a field experiment; locations of sightings of the lupin aphid, Macrosiphum albifrons, as it invaded Great Britain between 1981 and 1984. A method for generating maps from counts is proposed to overcome problems caused by recording imprecision. Several statistics are used to quantify dispersal and spatial pattern in the experimental data and together provide a clear picture of the spatial pattern observed; they enabled several effects of the experimental treatments to be identified. The value of the statistics are compared. Estimates of the source of the lupin aphid invasion are obtained using the backtracking methods of Perry (1995b) and do not contradict previous suggestions.     

Oil contamination of raptors migrating along the Red Sea

There are few accounts of oil contamination of raptors, and it has not been considered a threat for them. However, we and our colleagues found oil-based asphalt on 55 individuals of 9 species out of 1052 raptors (5.2%) captured and examined in the spring of 1985 and 1986 during our raptor migration study at Elat, Israel. Some were extensively contaminated and probably succumbed to the effects of ingested asphalt. The birds most likely picked up the contamination while drinking water from pools with surface oil. Examples of the contamination will be described. Over 1.2 million raptors were counted passing Elat during the spring of 1985. If 5% of these were contaminated, that would be over 60,000 birds, and this does not consider the raptors that migrate along the Red Sea and do not pass near Elat, nor those that pass Elat unseen by the counters. Thus asphalt contamination could be a major problem for raptors migrating along the Red Sea.