Integrated modelling of climate control and air pollution: Methodology and results from one-way coupling of an energy–environment–economy (E3MG) and atmospheric chemistry model (p-TOMCAT) in decarbonising scenarios for Mexico to 2050

This paper reports the methodology and results of an one-way coupling of the E3 Model at the Global level (E3MG) model to the global atmospheric chemistry model, p-TOMCAT, to assess the effects on the concentrations of atmospheric gases over Mexico of a low-GHG scenario compared to an alternative reference case with higher use of fossil fuels. The paper covers the data and methods, changes in atmospheric gas concentrations, the macroeconomic effects of the policies, and the outcome for pollution. The results suggest that in the conditions of underemployment in Mexico, substantial investment in low-carbon technologies, such as electric vehicles, heat pumps and geo-thermal power, could improve employment prospects, maintain growth, as well as reduce some of the risks associated with prospective falls in oil revenues. The concentrations of low-level ozone, both for Mexico-only and global decarbonisation scenarios relative to the original reference case, show appreciable reductions, sufficient to bring concentrations close to the WHO guideline levels. An indication is given of the potential scale of the benefits on human health in Mexico City.     

Rapid aerobic granulation in an SBR treating piggery wastewater by seeding sludge from a municipal WWTP

Aerobic sludge granulation was rapidly obtained in the erlenmeyer bottle and sequencing batch reactor (SBR) using piggery wastewater. Aerobic granulation occurred on day 3 and granules with mean diameter of 0.2 mm and SVI₃₀ of 20.3 mL/g formed in SBR on day 18. High concentrations of Ca and Fe in the raw piggery wastewater and operating mode accelerated aerobic granulation, even though the seed sludge was from a municipal wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). Alpha diversity analysis revealed Operational Taxonomic Units, Shannon, ACE and Chao 1 indexes in aerobic granules were 2013, 5.51, 4665.5 and 3734.5, which were obviously lower compared to seed sludge. The percentages of major microbial communities, such as Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes and Firmicutes were obviously higher in aerobic granules than seed sludge. Chloroflexi, Planctomycetes, Actinobacteria, TM7 and Acidobacteria showed much higher abundances in the inoculum. The main reasons might be the characteristics of raw piggery wastewater and granule structure.     

Alpha-fetoprotein and acetylcholinesterase are not predictive of fetal junctional epidermolysis bullosa,Herlitz variant

Junctional epidermolysis bullosa, Herlitz variant (junctional EB-Herlitz) is a lethal autosomal recessive skin disorder currently amenable to prenatal diagnosis only by direct analysis of fetal skin. However, elevated levels of alpha-fetoprotein, as well as the presence of acetylcholinesterase in amniotic fluid, have been associated with other severe fetal genodermatoses. Fetal skin samplings were performed in ten pregnancies at risk for fetal junctional EB-Herlitz, with three fetuses affected on the basis of electron microscopic detection of blisters within the lamina lucida and abnormal hemidesmosomes. In neither affected nor unaffected pregnancies were maternal serum or amniotic fluid alpha-fetoprotein levels elevated. Moreover, alphafetoprotein levels in both maternal serum and amniotic fluid were not statistically different comparing affected and unaffected fetuses. Acetylcholinesterase was not present in the amniotic fluid samples of the three affected pregnancies. Unlike other severe fetal genodermatoses, neither alpha-fetoprotein nor acetylcholinesterase was predictive of junctional EB-Herlitz.     

Societal risk assessment of major hazard installations using QuickRisk

QuickRisk is a quantitative risk assessment tool developed at the Health and Safety Laboratory for use in assessing societal risk around onshore major hazard installations to inform land-use planning decisions. It uses release scenario information, parameterised consequence models, weather data, and population data from the National Population Database (NPD).This paper describes enhancements to the NPD methodology to include workplace populations. It describes the novel numerical, graphical and geographical representations of societal risk produced by QuickRisk. F–N data are analysed in terms of scenario FN curves and Delta PLL vs. N curves, where PLL is potential loss of life. The Delta PLL curves could be useful for comparison of FN curves against FN criterion lines or other FN data on a PLL basis. Geographical representations generated from PLL density maps show: the distribution of PLL dominating release scenarios or the percentage of risk contributed by the PLL-dominant release scenario, the maximum number of fatalities associated with the worst-case event, and the associated release scenario. Geographical representations are also generated of the maximum population that would meet a PLL density criterion, and the relative population change that would match a given PLL density criterion.These novel representations of societal risk could be useful for more effective communication between stakeholders on the risk levels in the vicinity of major hazard installations.     

Fostering sustainability through sourcing from small businesses: public sector perspectives

This article examines the opportunities for fostering sustainable development through public sector sourcing from small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Buying from small businesses can make such contributions in a variety of forms, ranging from a contribution to local economic development through providing innovative green products and services, particularly in the food sector, to helping the public sector organisation to better align its operations with its community. Sourcing from small businesses also has implications for the governance of sourcing processes and can benefit from a partnership approach. Barriers to public sector sourcing from small businesses are discussed and suggestions made on how these can be overcome.     

Growth conditions affect carotenoid-based plumage coloration of great tit nestlings

 Carotenoid-based integument colour in animals has been hypothesised to signal individual phenotypic quality because it reliably reflects either foraging efficiency or health status. We investigated whether carotenoid-derived yellow plumage coloration of fledgling great tits (Parus major) reflects their nestling history. Great tit fledglings reared in a poor year (1998) or in the urban habitat were less yellow than these reared in a good year (1999) or in the forest. The origin of nestlings also affected their coloration since nestlings from a city population did not improve their coloration when transferred to the forest. Brood size manipulation affected fledgling colour, but only in the rural population, where nestlings from reduced broods developed more yellow coloration than nestlings from increased and control broods. Effect of brood size manipulation on fledgling plumage colour was independent of the body mass, indicating that growth environment affects fledgling body mass and plumage colour by different pathways. Received: 20 March 2000 / Accepted in revised form: 4 September 2000     

Antenatal corticosteroids and outcomes in gastroschisis: A multicenter retrospective cohort study

Objective

In gastroschisis, there is evidence to suggest that gut dysfunction develops secondary to bowel inflammation; we aimed to evaluate the effect of maternal antenatal corticosteroids administered for obstetric reasons on time to full enteral feeds in a multicenter cohort study of gastroschisis infants.

Methods

A three center, retrospective cohort study (1992-2013) with linked fetal/neonatal gastroschisis data was conducted. The primary outcome measure was time to full enteral feeds (a surrogate measure for bowel function) and secondary outcome measure was length of hospital stay. Analysis included Mann-Whitney and Cox regression.

Results

Of 500 patients included in the study, 69 (GA at birth 34 [25-38] weeks) received antenatal corticosteroids and 431 (GA at birth 37 [31-41] weeks) did not. Antenatal corticosteroids had no effect on the rate of reaching full feeds (Hazard ratio HR 1.0 [95% CI: 0.8-1.4]). However, complex gastroschisis (HR 0.3 [95% CI: 0.2-0.4]) was associated with an increased time to reach full feeds and later GA at birth (HR 1.1 per week increase in GA [95% CI: 1.1-1.2]) was associated with a decreased time to reach full feeds.

Conclusion

Maternal antenatal corticosteroids use, under current antenatal steroid protocols, in gastroschisis is not associated with an improvement in neonatal outcomes such as time to full enteral feeds or length of hospital stay.     

Nitrogen deposition threatens species richness of grasslands across Europe

Evidence from an international survey in the Atlantic biogeographic region of Europe indicates that chronic nitrogen deposition is reducing plant species richness in acid grasslands. Across the deposition gradient in this region (2-44 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) species richness showed a curvilinear response, with greatest reductions in species richness when deposition increased from low levels. This has important implications for conservation policies, suggesting that to protect the most sensitive grasslands resources should be focussed where deposition is currently low. Soil pH is also an important driver of species richness indicating that the acidifying effect of nitrogen deposition may be contributing to species richness reductions. The results of this survey suggest that the impacts of nitrogen deposition can be observed over a large geographical range.     

State of the Arctic Conference 2010: International Perspectives on Progress of Research Responsive to Decision-Makers’ Information Needs

The SoA conference emphasized that urgent questions posed by society and decision-makers in response to rapid Arctic change require that Arctic research address the broader concepts of sustainability as well as adaptation to and mitigation of interrelated environmental and socioeconomic change. Murray et al. (submitted) explore progress made in this context. The SoA meeting demonstrated significant progress by the Arctic community of scientists and stakeholders in meeting this challenge, as well as the need to better engage the private sector and find more effective ways to partner with relevant research activities outside of the polar regions.     

Protecting asset value and driving performance with a dynamic,risk-based contingency fund

We present a risk-based contingency fund management methodology to mitigate the impact of external risks on asset value and performance. Many asset intensive industries, such as water and energy utilities, are significantly affected by external risks such as extreme weather events. We put the case for a centrally held risk-based contingency fund that would mitigate against ‘medium’ impact ‘medium’ probability events that fall outside of large losses covered by insurance and smaller ‘normal’ operating losses. Our risk-based contingency approach is appropriate for short-term business planning (1–5 years) and would complement longer term planning, for example climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. Our approach offers a risk-based methodology to manage contingency that is explicit and defensible. Critically, our methodology allows contingency to be managed dynamically as risk probabilities and impacts change, creating a mechanism for contingency funds to be periodically released if risk exposure reduces. The long-term benefit of dynamic, risk-based contingency is to reduce the impact of external risks and support long-term sustainability.