Integrated modelling of climate control and air pollution: Methodology and results from one-way coupling of an energy–environment–economy (E3MG) and atmospheric chemistry model (p-TOMCAT) in decarbonising scenarios for Mexico to 2050

This paper reports the methodology and results of an one-way coupling of the E3 Model at the Global level (E3MG) model to the global atmospheric chemistry model, p-TOMCAT, to assess the effects on the concentrations of atmospheric gases over Mexico of a low-GHG scenario compared to an alternative reference case with higher use of fossil fuels. The paper covers the data and methods, changes in atmospheric gas concentrations, the macroeconomic effects of the policies, and the outcome for pollution. The results suggest that in the conditions of underemployment in Mexico, substantial investment in low-carbon technologies, such as electric vehicles, heat pumps and geo-thermal power, could improve employment prospects, maintain growth, as well as reduce some of the risks associated with prospective falls in oil revenues. The concentrations of low-level ozone, both for Mexico-only and global decarbonisation scenarios relative to the original reference case, show appreciable reductions, sufficient to bring concentrations close to the WHO guideline levels. An indication is given of the potential scale of the benefits on human health in Mexico City.     

Population growth rate and carrying capacity for springtails Folsomia candida exposed to ivermectin.

Forecasting the effects of stressors on the dynamics of natural populations requires assessment of the joint effects of a stressor and population density on the population response. The effects can be depicted as a contour map in which the population response, here assessed by population growth rate, varies with stress and density in the same way that the height of land above sea level varies with latitude and longitude. We present the first complete map of this type using as our model Folsomia candida exposed to five different concentrations of the widespread anthelmintic veterinary medicine ivermectin in replicated microcosm experiments lasting 49 days. The concentrations of ivermectin in yeast were 0.0, 6.8, 28.8, 66.4, and 210.0 mg/L wet weight. Increasing density and chemical concentration both significantly reduced the population growth rate of Folsomia candida, in part through effects on food consumption and fecundity. The interaction between density and ivermectin concentration was "less-than-additive," implying that at high density populations were able to compensate for the effects of the chemical. This result demonstrates that regulatory protocols carried out at low density (as in most past experiments) may seriously overestimate effects in the field, where densities are locally high and populations are resource limited (e.g., in feces of livestock treated with ivermectin).     

The influences of ambient particle composition and size on particle infiltration in Los Angeles, CA, residences

Particle infiltration is a key determinant of the indoor concentrations of ambient particles. Few studies have examined the influence of particle composition on infiltration, particularly in areas with high concentrations of volatile particles, such as ammonium nitrate (NH4NO3). A comprehensive indoor monitoring study was conducted in 17 Los Angeles-area homes. As part of this study, indoor/outdoor concentration ratios during overnight (nonindoor source) periods were used to estimate the fraction of ambient particles remaining airborne indoors, or the particle infiltration factor (FINF), for fine particles (PM2.5), its nonvolatile (i.e., black carbon [BC]) and volatile (i.e., nitrate [NO3-]) components, and particle sizes ranging between 0.02 and 10 microm. FINF was highest for BC (median = 0.84) and lowest for NO3- (median = 0.18). The low FINF for NO3- was likely because of volatilization of NO3- particles once indoors, in addition to depositional losses upon building entry. The FINF for PM2.5 (median = 0.48) fell between those for BC and NO3-, reflecting the contributions of both particle components to PM25. FINF varied with particle size, air-exchange rate, and outdoor NO3- concentrations. The FINF for particles between 0.7 and 2 microm in size was considerably lower during periods of high as compared with low outdoor NO3- concentrations, suggesting that outdoor NO3- particles were of this size. This study demonstrates that infiltration of PM2.5 varies by particle component and is lowest for volatile species, such as NH4NO3. Our results suggest that volatile particle components may influence the ability for outdoor PM concentrations to represent indoor and, thus, personal exposures to particles of ambient origin, because volatilization of these particles causes the composition of PM2.5 to differ indoors and outdoors. Consequently, particle composition likely influences observed epidemiologic relationships based on outdoor PM concentrations, especially in areas with high concentrations of NH4NO3 and other volatile particles.     

Scent-rubbing and status signalling by male mammals

Summary There is no consensus about the function of scent-rubbing, a widespread behaviour in which mammals rub their bodies vigorously in substances, many strong-smelling and some artificial, such as rotting meat, intestinal contents and engine oil. Here we suggest that scent-rubbing is involved in status advertisement and that, as in assessment using scent marks, the mechanism used by competitors to assess potential opponents may be scent-matching. In scent-matching a resource holder is assessed (identified) by comparing its odour with odours on or near the defended resource. In scent marking the odour originates from the resource holder (glandular secretion, urine and faeces); in scent-rubbing the odour originates in the environment.A prerequisite of unambiguous scent-matching is that the odour of scent-marks should be uniquely characteristic of one individual. This may be why marking substances are very complex chemically. Scent-rubbing often occurs with scent-marking and, rather than acting independently of scent-marking, the odours acquired may either (i) add to the complexity of the signal, thus reducing signal ambiguity, or (ii) increase the range of the signal by adding a strong smelling component.Subordinates could potentially cheat by rubbing in the same odours as the resource holder. Resource holders could prevent cheating (i) by checking other status cues and by testing competitors whose scent matches, then escalating contests when the competitor's fighting ability (more formally, Resource Holding Power) proves to be lower than that of a resource holder and (ii) by mixing the substances used for scent-rubbing with the unique substances used in scent-marking.     

A new method to assess mercury emissions: a study of three coal-fired electric-generating power station configurations

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Method 7473 for the analysis of mercury (Hg) by thermal decomposition, amalgamation, and atomic absorption spectroscopy has proved successful for use in Hg assessment at coal-fired power stations. In an analysis time of approximately 5 min per sample, this instrumental methodology can directly analyze total Hg--with no discrete sample preparation--in the solid matrices associated with a coal-fired power plant, including coal, fly ash, bottom ash, and flue gas desulfurization (FGD) material. This analysis technique was used to investigate Hg capture by coal combustion byproducts (CCBs) in three different coal-fired power plant configurations. Hg capture and associated emissions were estimated by partial mass balance. The station equipped with an FGD system demonstrated 68% capture on FGD material and an emissions estimate of 18% (11 kg/yr) of total Hg input. The power plant equipped with low oxides of nitrogen burners and an electrostatic precipitator (ESP) retained 43% on the fly ash and emitted 57% (51 kg/yr). The station equipped with conventional burners and an ESP retained less than 1% on the fly ash, emitting an estimated 99% (88 kg/yr) of Hg. Estimated Hg emissions demonstrate good agreement with EPA data for the power stations investigated.     

A preliminary examination of the translocation of microencapsulated cyfluthrin following applications to the perimeter of residential dwellings

Methods have been developed to monitor the translocation of microencapsulated cyfluthrin following perimeter applications to residential dwellings. A pilot study was implemented to determine both the potential for application spray to drift away from dwellings and the intrusion of residues into homes following perimeter treatments. Residential monitoring included measuring spray drift using cellulose filter paper and the collection of soil samples from within the spray zone. In addition, interior air was monitored using fiberglass filter paper as a sorbent medium and cotton ball swabs were used to collect surface wipes. Fortification of matrixes resulted in recoveries of > 90%. Spray drift was highest at the point of application and declined to low but measurable levels 9.1 m from the foundations of dwellings. Soil residues declined to low, but measurable levels by 45 days post-application. No cyfluthrin was measured from indoor air; however, some interior surfaces had detectable levels of cyfluthrin until three days post-application. Findings indicate that spray drift resulting from perimeter applications might contaminate non-target surfaces outside the spray zone. Soil borne residues may serve as persistent sources for human exposure and potentially intrude into dwellings through the activities of occupants and pets. Residues do not appreciably translocate through air and consequently inhalation is not a likely route for human exposure. Surface residues detected indoors suggest that the physical movement of residues from the exterior to the interior might be a viable route of movement of residues following this type of application.     

Assessing Changes in Phosphorus Concentrations in Relation to In-Stream Plant Ecology in Lowland Permeable Catchments: Bringing Ecosystem Functioning Into Water Quality Monitoring

Changes in concentrations of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), excess partial pressure of carbon dioxide (EpCO₂), and chlorophyll-a were examined for two rivers in the in the upper Thames catchment: the main river Thames at Wallingford and a chalk stream tributary, the River Kennet. Sampling began in the spring of 1997 and has covered extremes in river flow conditions. During the sampling period there was a dramatic reduction in phosphorus (P) inputs from the introduction of effluent P-treatment at sewage treatment works, as a result of the EU Urban Wastewater Treatment Directive. Despite major reductions in baseflow SRP concentrations in the River Kennet, from around 700 μg-P L^-1 to around 100 μg-P L^-1, observations of aquatic plant communities indicate overall degradation in ecological quality since effluent P-treatment was introduced. The degradation was associated with a spring and summer decline in growth of Ranunculus, a macrophyte of high conservation value in chalk streams, particularly from 2000 onwards, linked to shading by epiphytic algae. Although the EpCO₂ records indicate a reduction in primary productivity since effluent P-treatment, the River Kennet may have become more sensitive to epiphyte blooms. Episodes of epiphyte proliferation appear to be linked temporally to small increases in SRP concentrations (typicallyabove a 100 μg-P L^-1 threshold) under summer baseflow conditions. The in-stream system is highly complex and individual processes and causality are difficult to resolve, particularly given changes in river flows linked to background climatic variability and limited availability of biological data. This study demonstrates the need for integrated long-term biological and chemical monitoring of river systems subject to major perturbations to assess timescales required to produce new dynamic equilibria in ecosystem response.     

Growth conditions affect carotenoid-based plumage coloration of great tit nestlings

 Carotenoid-based integument colour in animals has been hypothesised to signal individual phenotypic quality because it reliably reflects either foraging efficiency or health status. We investigated whether carotenoid-derived yellow plumage coloration of fledgling great tits (Parus major) reflects their nestling history. Great tit fledglings reared in a poor year (1998) or in the urban habitat were less yellow than these reared in a good year (1999) or in the forest. The origin of nestlings also affected their coloration since nestlings from a city population did not improve their coloration when transferred to the forest. Brood size manipulation affected fledgling colour, but only in the rural population, where nestlings from reduced broods developed more yellow coloration than nestlings from increased and control broods. Effect of brood size manipulation on fledgling plumage colour was independent of the body mass, indicating that growth environment affects fledgling body mass and plumage colour by different pathways. Received: 20 March 2000 / Accepted in revised form: 4 September 2000