Making spatial development scenario for south of Bushehr province,Iran, based on strategic foresight

In recent years, the science of foresight has been entered into planning activities by urban and regional planners and this science has impacted on planning activities. This study discusses spatial development in the south of Bushehr province using the foresight approach. The general aim of this research is to compile scenarios for the development of the mentioned study area which comprises the southern part of Bushehr province including four counties of Dayyer, Jam, Kangan and Asaluyeh. The main reason for selecting this region is their direct impressibility by major changes in the country’s oil and gas industry. This research has extremely made use of the Delphi and cross-impact analysis methods to develop foresight scenarios. Using the Delphi method, 30 initial factors were identified in the economic, political-security, linkages, science and technology, manufacturing, natural, social, infrastructural and residential issues and then the cross-impact matrix was used to investigate the impact of factors on each other. In the next step, the ranking of direct and indirect factors was determined by Micmac software and on this basis, the final refining in the selection of drivers was done. In the final stage, axes of future scenarios were presented and then the future scenarios were drawn. Results of this research indicate that two main drivers namely Iran’s international relations and energy resources are the main axes of scenarios. These two drivers have more uncertainty and higher importance than other factors and the results in four scenarios showing the possibility of each situation’s occurrence.     

Effects of meteorology on ground-level ozone (GLO) concentrations and identifying the hot spots having significantly higher GLO concentration in a semi-urban area

The present study aims to analyse the influences of five meteorological parameters (temperature, wind speed, barometric pressure, rainfall, and solar radiations) on ground-level ozone (GLO) concentrations over the region of Ranchi Municipal Corporation (Jharkhand, India). The diurnal variation of GLO concentration and the meteorological parameters were analysed in each month to understand the associations. The results indicated that the correlation coefficients of GLO concentration with SR, AT, and DPT are found to be positive in each month and also statistically significant. But, the association between WS and GLO concentration was not uniform between the study days. Furthermore, the study also demonstrates an approach for identifying the hot spots that are having the higher level of GLO concentration. The hot spot maps were produced for each month to understand the shifting of the locations of hot spot locations. The results reveal that the hot spot locations are changes frequently in each case. Since the hot spot analysis was conducted with limited data, the presented hot spots are indicative and dependent on the meteorological conditions of the specific period and cannot be considered as a robust epidemiological study.     

Traffic and outdoor air pollution levels near highways in Baghdad,Iraq

In Iraq, the number of passenger cars, trucks and buses, local generators, and heavy construction equipment rose to a considerable extent since 2003, causing high environmental problems. Many types of pollutants were monitored and recorded for 24 h during March 2016. The study attempts to explore and establish a relationship between the volume of activity and the movement of motor vehicles of various compounds and contaminants resulting from their exhaust pipes, such as sulfur dioxide, particulate matters, oxides of nitrogen, VOCs, and unburned hydrocarbons. The study focused in and around Mohammad Al-Qasim highway adjacent to the University of Technology, Baghdad. The results showed the need for urgent treatments addressed by the environmental authorities in the city. The study results demonstrated that these contaminants are increased during periods of the beginning and end of working hours for government departments. Some types of sulfur compounds (H₂S and SO₂) concentrations were at serious health-threatening levels, which is a result of the high sulfur content in the Iraqi fuel. The concentrations of NOx and VOC were high, also, which could make the studied area vulnerable to the risk of smog formation. The Iraqi government should make greater efforts to protect the environment and human in this country from the transportation pollution risks.     

Energy–growth nexus revisited: an empirical application on transition countries

This study investigates the energy–growth nexus for transition countries analysing Granger causality between GDP growth per capita and energy use per capita. For this purpose, 17 countries located at Central and Eastern Europe and Caucasian region are chosen and a panel dataset consisting of these countries for the available period of 1990–2011 is studied. In the study, Granger causality is investigated using bootstrapped panel causality approach proposed by Konya (Econ Modell 23(6):978–992, 2006). The approach gives consistent results in case of cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity of slope coefficients between countries. Causality is examined for two scenarios: one with a trend and one without a trend. The results reveal that, in general, there is no causality running between energy consumption and economic growth, yet there is causality running from energy consumption to economic growth for some countries and sign of the relationship is always negative. Therefore, increases in energy consumption harm economic growth.     

Assessing groundwater quality and its sustainability in Joypurhat district of Bangladesh using GIS and multivariate statistical approaches

Sustainable groundwater quality is a key global concern and has become a major issue of disquiets in most parts of the world including Bangladesh. Hence, the assessment of groundwater quality is an important study to ensure its sustainability for various uses. In this study, a combination of multivariate statistics, geographical information system (GIS) and geochemical approaches was employed to evaluate the groundwater quality and its sustainability in Joypurhat district of Bangladesh. The results showed that the groundwater samples are mainly Ca–Mg–HCO₃ type. Principal component analysis (PCA) results revealed that geogenic sources (rock weathering and cation exchange) followed by anthropogenic activities (domestic sewage and agro-chemicals) were the major factors governing the groundwater quality of the study area. Furthermore, the results of PCA are validated using the cluster analysis and correlation matrix analysis. Based on the groundwater quality index (GWQI), it is found that all the groundwater samples belong to excellent to good water quality domains for human consumption, although iron, fluoride and iodide contaminated to the groundwater, which do not pose any significant health hazard according to World Health Organization’s and Bangladesh’s guideline values. The results of irrigation water quality index including sodium adsorption ratio (SAR), permeability index and sodium percentage (Na %) suggested that most of the groundwater samples are good quality water for agricultural uses. The spatial distribution of the measured values of GWQI, SAR, Fe (iron), EC (electrical conductivity) and TH (total hardness) were spatially mapped using the GIS tool in the study area.     

Sustainability indicators of water sharing compacts

There is an increasing crisis of fresh water availability throughout the world. Sharing the available water resources in a sustainable manner among numerous stakeholders in the backdrop of this crisis is more challenging. Very often water conflicts are triggered out in this challenging scenario. These conflicts are sometimes reconciled with compacts on sharing. Water sharing compacts on both surface and aquifer resources are very common. Whether these compacts are founded on postulates of sustainability is the important question we want to investigate. Conflicts resurface when the sustainability of a compact is at stake. In this paper, we are reviewing three compacts on surface water sharing to understand their sustainability perspectives and how it has helped addressing conflicts. An introduction to various legal instruments promulgated aiming water conflict abatement is given first. Different types of water sharing agreements being signed in the current water management practice are also looked into. Theoretical background of sustainability analysis, both quantitative and qualitative, applicable in the case of water sharing models is then discussed. This is followed by specific case study analysis of three interstate water sharing agreements executed in basins of different agro-climatic regions across the world. It includes the Colorado basin (USA), Murray Darling basin (Australia) and the Parambikulam Aliyar Project (PAP) basins (India). Interstate water sharing agreement of these basins is critically examined and compared to comment on its sustainability perspective. The Murray Darling basin and its compact appear to be better in its overall considerations of sustainability. Compared to Colorado and Murray Darling, PAP requires major revisions in its sustainability context. E flows and stochastic modeling are the thrust areas of PAP that require major revision.     

A stochastic Lagrangian micromixing model for the dispersion of reactive scalars in turbulent flows: role of concentration fluctuations and improvements to the conserved scalar theory under non-homogeneous conditions

Several reaction schemes, based on the conserved scalar theory, are implemented within a stochastic Lagrangian micromixing model to simulate the dispersion of reactive scalars in turbulent flows. In particular, the formulation of the reaction-dominated limit (RDL) reaction scheme is here extended to improve the model performance under non-homogeneous conditions (NHRDL scheme). The validation of the stochastic model is obtained by comparison with the available measurements of reactive pollutant concentrations in a grid-generated turbulent flow. This test case describes the dispersion of two atmospheric reactant species (NO and O₃) and their reaction product (NO₂) in an unbounded turbulent flow. Model inter-comparisons are also assessed, by considering the results of state-of-the-art models for pollutant dispersion. The present validation shows that RDL reaction scheme provides a systematic overestimation (relative error of ca. 85% around the centreline) in computing the local reactant consumption/production rate, whereas the NHRDL scheme drastically reduces this gap (relative error lower than 5% around the centreline). In terms of NO₂ production (or reactant consumption), neglecting concentration fluctuations determines overestimations of the product mean of around 100% and a NO₂ local production of one order of magnitude higher than the reference simulation. In terms of standard deviations, the concentration fluctuations of both the passive and reactive scalars are generally of the same order of magnitude or up to 1 or 2 orders of magnitudes higher than the corresponding ensemble mean values, except for the background reactant close to the plume edges. The study highlights the importance of modelling pollutant reactions depending on the instantaneous instead of the mean concentrations of the reactants, thus quantifying the role of the turbulent fluctuations of concentration, in terms of scalar statistics (mean, standard deviation, intensity of fluctuations, skewness and kurtosis of concentration, segregation coefficient, simulated reaction rate). This stochastic particle method represents an efficient numerical technique to solve the convection–diffusion equation for reactive scalars and involves several application fields: micro-scale air quality (urban and street-canyon scales), accidental releases, impact of odours, water quality and fluid flow industrial processes (e.g. combustion).     

Evaluation of existing equations for temporal scour depth around circular bridge piers

Scour is defined as the processes of removal of sediment particles from water stream bed by the erosive action of activated water, and also carries sediment away from the hydraulic structures. Scour is the main cause of pier failure. Numerous equations are available for estimating temporal and equilibrium scour depth. The present study describes the phenomenon of temporal scour depth variation at bridge piers and deals with the methods for its estimation. The accuracy of six temporal scour depth equations are also checked in this study. After graphical and statistical analysis, it was found that the relationship proposed by Oliveto and Hager (J Hydraul Eng (ASCE) 128(9):811–520, 2002) predicts temporal scour depth better than other equations. Three equations of equilibrium time of scour are also used for computing equilibrium time. Equilibrium time equation proposed by Choi and Choi (Water Environ J 30(1–2):14–21, 2016) gives better agreements with observed values.     

Simulation of dam/levee-break hydrodynamics with a three-dimensional implicit unstructured-mesh finite element model

Dam failures usually cause huge economic and life losses , especially in urban areas where there is a high concentration of inhabitants and economic actors. In order to understand the physical mechanisms of the formation and development of dam-break flooding, lots of efforts have been put into different types of modelling techniques. However, most of existing models are 1D (one-dimensional) or 2D models based on the shallow water equations. In this paper, we present a 3D numerical modelling investigation of dam-break flow hydrodynamics in an open L-shape channel. A newly developed 3D unstructured mesh finite element model is used here. An absorption-like term is introduced to the Navier–Stokes equations in order to control the conditioning of the matrix equation in the numerical solution process and thus improve the stability. A wetting and drying algorithm is used here to allow the free surface height to be treated with a high level of implicitness and stability. The 3D model has been validated by comparing the results with the published experimental data. Good agreement has been achieved at six selected locations. This study shows that the 3D unstructured mesh model is capable of capturing the 3D hydraulic aspects and complicated local flows around structures in simulation of dam-break flows.     

Mechanism of the intermittent motion of two-phase debris flows

A typical two-phase debris flow exhibits a high and steep flow head consisting of rolling boulders and cobbles with intermittent or fluctuating velocity. The relative motion between the solid phase and the liquid phase is obvious. The motion of a two-phase debris flow depends not only on the rheological properties of the flow, but also on the energy transmission between the solid and liquid phases. Several models have been developed to study two-phase debris flows. An essential shortcoming of most of these models is the omission of the interaction between the two phases and identification of the different roles of the different materials in two-phase debris flows. The tracer particles were used for the velocity of solid phase and the velocity of liquid phase was calculated by the water velocity on the surface of the debris flow in the experiments. This paper analyzed the intermittent feature of two-phase debris flows based on videos of debris flows in the field and flume experiments. The experiments showed that the height of the head of the two-phase debris flow increased gradually in the initiation stage and reached equilibrium at a certain distance from the start of the debris flow. The height growth and the velocity of the flow head showed fluctuating characteristics. Model equations were established and the analyses proved that the average velocity of the two-phase debris flow head was proportional to the flood discharge and inversely proportional to the volume of the debris flow head.