AN ANALYSIS OF WATER RESOURCES CONSTRAINTS ON POWER PLANT SITING IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES1

ABSTRACT: Expansion of the electrical generation system in the Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland power pool will impact, and be constrained by, inland water availability. Future interpretations of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972 regarding evaporative cooling towers for coastal power plants, offshore siting and energy centers, and the policies and public acceptability of low flow augmentation reservoirs are some of the issues examined in this paper using scenarios generated by the Brookhaven National Laboratory Regional Energy Facility Siting Model (REFS). REFS is a multicommodity, transshipment-location linear programming model used here to allocate power plants among counties in a power pool under a minimization of cost objectives. The solutions are sensitive to the water resources assumptions in the model. For the year 2000, the amount of low flow augmentation allowed in the region's river basins and whether off-shore siting becomes a reality are the two water resources related issues which most affect the scenarios. The results show that decisions regarding specific water problems can have region wide implications for water and nonwater related issues.     

Irreversible Investment in Wetlands Preservation: Optimal Ecosystem Restoration Under Uncertainty

The model, a stochastic dynamic program, is used to optimize the timing and type of protective structure under a range of management goals. A wetland can either be optimal for fish or optimal for mammals and waterfowl, but not both. Because credible estimates of the economic values of wetland services do not exist, we treat those values as parameters in a multiobjective analysis and show the decisions implied by alternative valuations. The model is applied to the case of Metzger Marsh, a Lake Erie coastal wetland near Toledo, Ohio, where the decision was made in 1993 to construct an open dike. We find that the optimal decision is robust with respect to varying assumptions about the formation of barrier beaches and the probability of climate change, but that the decision is not robust to assumptions concerning the health of an unprotected Metzger Marsh. The most important source of uncertainty is the biological health of an unprotected wetland.     

Diversity in Current Ecological Thinking: Implications for Environmental Management

Current ecological thinking emphasizes that systems are complex, dynamic, and unpredictable across space and time. What is the diversity in interpretation of these ideas among today’s ecologists, and what does this mean for environmental management? This study used a Policy Delphi survey of ecologists to explore their perspectives on a number of current topics in ecology. The results showed general concurrence with nonequilibrium views. There was agreement that disturbance is a widespread, normal feature of ecosystems with historically contingent responses. The importance of recognizing multiple levels of organization and the role of functional diversity in environmental change were also widely acknowledged. Views differed regarding the predictability of successional development, whether “patchiness” is a useful concept, and the benefits of shifting the focus from species to ecosystem processes. Because of their centrality to environmental management, these different views warrant special attention from both managers and ecologists. Such divergence is particularly problematic given widespread concerns regarding the poor linkages between science (here, ecology) and environmental policy and management, which have been attributed to scientific uncertainty and a lack of consensus among scientists, both jeopardizing the transfer of science into management. Several suggestions to help managers deal with these differences are provided, especially the need to interpret broader theory in the context of place-based assessments. The uncertainty created by these differences requires a proactive approach to environmental management, including clearly identifying environmental objectives, careful experimental design, and effective monitoring.     

Biofluorescence as a survey tool for cryptic marine species

As ecosystems come under increasing anthropogenic pressure, rare species face the highest risk of extinction. Paradoxically, data necessary to evaluate the conservation status of rare species are often lacking because of the challenges of detecting species with low abundance. One group of fishes subject to this undersampling bias are those with cryptic body patterns. Twenty‐one percent of cryptic fish species assessed for their extinction risk (International Union for Conservation of Nature [IUCN]) are data deficient. We developed a nondestructive method for surveying cryptically patterned marine fishes based on the presence of biofluorescence (underwater biofluorescence census, UBC). Blue LED torches were used to investigate how widespread biofluorescence was in cryptic reef fishes in the Coral Triangle region. The effectiveness of UBC to generate abundance data was tested on a data‐deficient pygmy seahorse species (Hippocampus bargibanti) and compared with data obtained from standard underwater visual census (UVC) surveys. We recorded 95 reef fish species displaying biofluorescence, 73 of which had not been previously described as biofluorescent. Of those fish with cryptic patterns, 87% were biofluorescent compared with 9% for noncryptic fishes. The probability of species displaying biofluorescence was 70.9 times greater for cryptic species than for noncryptic species. Almost twice the number of H. bargibanti was counted using the UBC compared with UVC. For 2 triplefin species (Ucla xenogrammus, Enneapterygius tutuilae), the abundance detected with UBC was triple that detected with UVC. The UBC method was effective at finding cryptic species that would otherwise be difficult to detect and thus will reduce interobserver variability inherent to UVC surveys. Biofluorescence is ubiquitous in cryptic fishes, making this method applicable across a wide range of species. Data collected using UBC could be used with multiple IUCN criteria to assess the extinction risk of cryptic species. Adopting this technique will enhance researchers’ ability to survey cryptic species and facilitate management and conservation of cryptic marine species.     

Dynamics of prion disease transmission in mule deer.

Chronic wasting disease (CWD), a contagious prion disease of the deer family, has the potential to severely harm deer populations and disrupt ecosystems where deer occur in abundance. Consequently, understanding the dynamics of this emerging infectious disease, and particularly the dynamics of its transmission, has emerged as an important challenge for contemporary ecologists and wildlife managers. Although CWD is contagious among deer, the relative importance of pathways for its transmission remains unclear. We developed seven competing models, and then used data from two CWD outbreaks in captive mule deer and model selection to compare them. We found that models portraying indirect transmission through the environment had 3.8 times more support in the data than models representing transmission by direct contact between infected and susceptible deer. Model-averaged estimates of the basic reproductive number (R0) were 1.3 or greater, indicating likely local persistence of CWD in natural populations under conditions resembling those we studied. Our findings demonstrate the apparent importance of indirect, environmental transmission in CWD and the challenges this presents for controlling the disease.     

Temporal and biogeographic comparisons of PCBs and persistent organochlorine pollutants in the blubber of fin whales from eastern Canada in 1971-1991

Concentrations of PCB congeners and organochlorine (OC) pesticides were studied in archived fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus) blubber samples collected in 1971-1972 from Newfoundland (Nfld) and Nova Scotia (NS) with the objective of obtaining a historical perspective on contaminant levels and proportions at a time when many persistent OCs were still in use. Concentrations of sigmaPCBs and sigmaDDTs in the blubber of 17 fin whales from historical whaling stations in 1971-1972 were generally in agreement with previously reported values for fin whales from Atlantic Canada. Although some differences in sex and body length (age) distribution of samples occurred, significant differences were detected in the concentrations and patterns of PCBs, DDTs and chlordanes in whales from Nfld and NS, supporting ecological evidence that whales from these regions represent relatively separate stocks. Temporal and geographical variations were examined by comparing data to those reported for fin whales from the St Lawrence Estuary (StL) in 1991 by Gauthier et al. (1997a). Significantly higher levels of sigmaDDT, sigmaCHL and HCB were found in the NS (1971-1972) stock compared with the StL (1991) animals, and in HCB between the Nfld stock (1971-1972) and the StL (1991) animals, as well as higher p,p'-DDE/sigmaDDT and lower p,p'-DDT/sigmaDDT ratios in the 1991 whales suggesting that temporal trends in these whales between the 1970s and 1990s were consistent with those in other marine mammals in Atlantic Canada. Evidence also suggests that geographical variations in patterns may occur for individuals from two relatively distinct stocks of fin whales in Atlantic Canada (NS, Nfld) and perhaps for one population (StL) related to, but recognisably different from the NS stock.