Analyzing complex water governance regimes: the Management and Transition Framework

This paper presents the Management and Transition Framework (MTF), an interdisciplinary conceptual and methodological framework supporting the analysis of water systems, management processes and multi-level governance regimes. It serves to improve the scientific understanding of system properties and to give practical guidance for the implementation of transition processes towards more adaptive systems. Doing so requires a systemic perspective to embrace complexity and the wealth of interactions characterizing resource governance regimes. The MTF supports and provides guidance for an interdisciplinary approach in the social sciences and across the social–natural science interface.The framework integrates a range of concepts to develop a more coherent understanding of the complexity of water management regimes. Specific emphasis is given to adaptive capacity and learning processes. However, the MTF is not linked to one specific theory but provides a language that can be tailored to specific research questions and different theoretical approaches. The structured yet flexible approach is a condition for developing shared databases that allow comparative analyses over a wider range of case studies. The MTF does not promote panaceas but a diagnostic approach supporting context sensitive analysis without being case specific and thus not directly transferable.     

On-Scene Injury Severity Prediction (OSISP) Algorithm for Truck Occupants

Objective: The aim of this study is to develop an on-scene injury severity prediction (OSISP) algorithm for truck occupants using only accident characteristics that are feasible to assess at the scene of the accident. The purpose of developing this algorithm is to use it as a basis for a field triage tool used in traffic accidents involving trucks. In addition, the model can be valuable for recognizing important factors for improving triage protocols used in Sweden and possibly in other countries with similar traffic environments and prehospital procedures.

Methods: The scope is adult truck occupants involved in traffic accidents on Swedish public roads registered in the Swedish Traffic Accident Data Acquisition (STRADA) database for calendar years 2003 to 2013. STRADA contains information reported by the police and medical data on injured road users treated at emergency hospitals. Using data from STRADA, 2 OSISP multivariate logistic regression models for deriving the probability of severe injury (defined here as having an Injury Severity Score [ISS] > 15) were implemented for light and heavy trucks; that is, trucks with weight up to 3,500 kg and ??16,500 kg, respectively. A 10-fold cross-validation procedure was used to estimate the performance of the OSISP algorithm in terms of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

Results: The rate of belt use was low, especially for heavy truck occupants. The OSISP models developed for light and heavy trucks achieved cross-validation AUC of 0.81 and 0.74, respectively. The AUC values obtained when the models were evaluated on all data without cross-validation were 0.87 for both light and heavy trucks. The difference in the AUC values with and without use of cross-validation indicates overfitting of the model, which may be a consequence of relatively small data sets. Belt use stands out as the most valuable predictor in both types of trucks; accident type and age are important predictors for light trucks.

Conclusions: The OSISP models achieve good discriminating capability for light truck occupants and a reasonable performance for heavy truck occupants. The prediction accuracy may be increased by acquiring more data. Belt use was the strongest predictor of severe injury for both light and heavy truck occupants. There is a need for behavior-based safety programs and/or other means to encourage truck occupants to always wear a seat belt.     

A fungal perspective on conservation biology

Hitherto fungi have rarely been considered in conservation biology, but this is changing as the field moves from addressing single species issues to an integrative ecosystem‐based approach. The current emphasis on biodiversity as a provider of ecosystem services throws the spotlight on the vast diversity of fungi, their crucial roles in terrestrial ecosystems, and the benefits of considering fungi in concert with animals and plants. We reviewed the role of fungi in ecosystems and composed an overview of the current state of conservation of fungi. There are 5 areas in which fungi can be readily integrated into conservation: as providers of habitats and processes important for other organisms; as indicators of desired or undesired trends in ecosystem functioning; as indicators of habitats of conservation value; as providers of powerful links between human societies and the natural world because of their value as food, medicine, and biotechnological tools; and as sources of novel tools and approaches for conservation of megadiverse organism groups. We hope conservation professionals will value the potential of fungi, engage mycologists in their work, and appreciate the crucial role of fungi in nature. Una Perspectiva Micótica de la Biología de la Conservación     

Agenda 21

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Coping with change: responses of the Uzbek water management regime to socio-economic transition and global change

Water management in Uzbekistan (Central Asia) is facing tremendous challenges. They are rooted in past and present environmental degradation, the socio-economic transition after the breakup of the Soviet Union, and the impacts of climate change. The Uzbek government has initiated reforms in the agricultural and water sectors to steer the socio-economic transition and address the threats of increasing water scarcity and decreasing agricultural productivity. However, despite the urgency of the problems and massive international assistance changes to the water management regime have only been minimal so far. In this paper we identify major structural barriers for adaptation of the water management regime through an analysis of two recent policy processes. Both processes address pressing water management issues such as “coping with extreme events” and “providing water for ecosystems”. They were analyzed using the Management and Transition Framework as well as a group model building exercises with stakeholders on the national, regional and local levels. The analyses reveal a lack of vertical integration across administrative levels of the formal system and a still prevailing strong centralization of water management. Moreover the water management regime is strongly influenced by informal institutions that shape the outcomes of policy processes. The interactions guided by informal institutions provide an informal link between different administrative levels of the regime. However, those informal networks and the social capital embedded in them rather prevent needed changes. The resulting combination of top down institutional change initiated by socio-economic transition and bottom-up consolidation of the existing status quo via informal processes and networks prevents social learning. It also slows down an adaptation process that potentially could lead to a transition towards a more adaptive regime.