How can winter tourism adapt to climate change in Saxony’s mountains?

This study deals with regional climate change in five low mountain areas in Eastern Germany and assesses the awareness of tourism professionals towards climate change, its impact on winter tourism and adaptation options. Favourable conditions for winter tourism decreased over the last decades in the Saxon low mountain ranges. A change from predominantly snow-based to a wider variety of winter tourism options appears indispensible as climate models project continuing warming. Diversifying touristic options provides opportunities to develop new business fields and to attract new target groups. This paper reveals obstacles and opportunities to adapt and develop winter tourism in the central European low mountain ranges and to increase the competitiveness of regional tourism. A survey explored the current awareness of representatives of most of the Saxon downhill skiing areas and of selected winter tourism municipalities towards climate change and its implications on their business. Awareness is essential to successfully implement adaptation measures. About half of the interviewees were not aware of the regional changes in natural snow conditions projected for the next 15–20 years. Nevertheless, the majority recognized climate change as a serious issue. Yet, stakeholders repeatedly emphasized their uncertainty about related scientific facts. They attributed their perception to mass media reports that suggest a lack of scientific consensus on climate change issues. Adaptation options for slope-based and general winter tourism are developed and presented, involving ideas of the interviewees. To successfully move towards adaptation, supply and marketing of alternative offers need to be strengthened. A survey of tourist expectations is planned to ensure a successful implementation of new (winter) touristic offers in the Saxon mountains.     

Trends in food production and nitrous oxide emissions from the agriculture sector in India: environmental implications

We studied trends in food production and nitrous oxide emissions from India's agricultural sector between 1961 and 2000. Data from Food and Agricultural Statistics (FAO) have been gathered covering production, consumption, fertilizer use and livestock details. IPCC 1996 revised guidelines were followed in studying the variations in N₂O-N emissions. Results suggest that total N₂O-N emissions (direct, animal waste and indirect sources) increased ~6.1 times from ~0.048 to ~0.294 Tg N₂O-N, over 40 years. Source-wise breakdown of emissions from 1961–2000 indicated that during 1961 most of the N₂O-N inputs were from crop residues (61%) and biological nitrogen fixation (25%), while during 2000 the main sources were synthetic fertilizer (~48%) and crop residues (19%). Direct emissions increased from ~0.031 to ~0.183 Tg. It is estimated that ~3.1% of global N₂O-N emissions comes from India. Trends in food production, primarily cereals (rice, wheat and coarse grains) and pulses, and fertilizer consumption from 1961–2000 suggest that food production (cereals and pulses) increased only 3.7 times, while nitrogenous fertilizer consumption increased ~43 times over this period, leading to extensive release of nitrogen to the atmosphere. From this study, we infer that the challenge for Indian agriculture lies not only in increasing production but also in achieving production stability while minimizing the impact to the environment, through various management and mitigation options.     

Potential shifts in dominant forest cover in interior Alaska driven by variations in fire severity

Large fire years in which >1% of the landscape burns are becoming more frequent in the Alaskan (USA) interior, with four large fire years in the past 10 years, and 79 000 km2 (17% of the region) burned since 2000. We modeled fire severity conditions for the entire area burned in large fires during a large fire year (2004) to determine the factors that are most important in estimating severity and to identify areas affected by deep-burning fires. In addition to standard methods of assessing severity using spectral information, we incorporated information regarding topography, spatial pattern of burning, and instantaneous characteristics such as fire weather and fire radiative power. Ensemble techniques using regression trees as a base learner were able to determine fire severity successfully using spectral data in concert with other relevant geospatial data. This method was successful in estimating average conditions, but it underestimated the range of severity. This new approach was used to identify black spruce stands that experienced intermediate- to high-severity fires in 2004 and are therefore susceptible to a shift in regrowth toward deciduous dominance or mixed dominance. Based on the output of the severity model, we estimate that 39% (approximately 4000 km2) of all burned black spruce stands in 2004 had <10 cm of residual organic layer and may be susceptible a postfire shift in plant functional type dominance, as well as permafrost loss. If the fraction of area susceptible to deciduous regeneration is constant for large fire years, the effect of such years in the most recent decade has been to reduce black spruce stands by 4.2% and to increase areas dominated or co-dominated by deciduous forest stands by 20%. Such disturbance-driven modifications have the potential to affect the carbon cycle and climate system at regional to global scales.