Incorporating stakeholder decision support needs into an integrated regional Earth system model

A new modeling effort exploring the opportunities, constraints, and interactions between mitigation and adaptation at regional scale is utilizing stakeholder engagement in an innovative approach to guide model development and demonstration, including uncertainty characterization, to effectively inform regional decision making. This project, the integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM), employs structured stakeholder interactions and literature reviews to identify the most relevant adaptation and mitigation alternatives and decision criteria for each regional application of the framework. The information is used to identify important model capabilities and to provide a focus for numerical experiments. This paper presents the stakeholder research results from the first iRESM pilot region. The pilot region includes the Great Lakes Basin in the Midwest portion of the United States as well as other contiguous states. This geographic area (14 states in total) permits cohesive modeling of hydrologic systems while also providing strong gradients in climate, demography, land cover/land use, and energy supply and demand. The results from the stakeholder research indicate that, for this region, iRESM should prioritize addressing adaptation alternatives in the water resources, urban infrastructure, and agriculture sectors, including water conservation, expanded water quality monitoring, altered reservoir releases, lowered water intakes, urban infrastructure upgrades, increased electric power reserves in urban areas, and land use management/crop selection changes. For mitigation in this region, the stakeholder research implies that iRESM should focus on policies affecting the penetration of renewable energy technologies, and the costs and effectiveness of energy efficiency, bioenergy production, wind energy, and carbon capture and sequestration.     

The use of technology to address patterns of risk among teenage drivers

INTRODUCTION: The crash risk of teens is high, with fatal crash rates of teen drivers higher than any other age group. New approaches to reduce teen traffic fatalities are clearly needed. METHOD: A possible approach to reduce the incidence of teen driver crashes and fatalities is through the use of vehicle-based intelligent driver support systems. To be most effective, the system should address the behaviors associated with an overwhelming number of teen fatal crashes: speed, low seatbelt use, and alcohol impairment. In-vehicle technology also offers an opportunity to address the issue of inexperience through enforcement of certain Graduated Driver's License provisions. RESULTS: To fully understand the capability of such technologies, there should be a concerted effort to further their development, and human factors testing should take place to understand their effects on the driver. IMPACT: If successfully implemented, a Teen Driver Support System (TDSS), such as the one described here, could significantly decrease the number of teens killed in traffic crashes.     

Establishment of facultative sexuals

The existence of sex is one of the major unsolved problems in biology. We use computer simulations to model conditions in which sex may first become established. We develop an individual-based population model and show that a hypothetical facultative sex gene can fix, provided that the initial cost is low. It is demonstrated that the equilibrium fitness in the population increases with increasing population size and decreasing mutation rate. The probability of the establishment of the sex gene is found not to be directly related to the fitness difference between the asexual and sexual populations. This change in fitness on changing the parameters of the model is investigated.     

Pedestrian fatalities, Atlanta Metropolitan Statistical Area and United States, 2000-2004

Motor vehicle crashes killed almost 5,000 pedestrians in 2005 in the United States. Pedestrian risk may be higher in areas characterized by urban sprawl. From 2000 to 2004, pedestrian fatality rates declined in the United States, but the Atlanta metropolitan statistical area did not experience the same decline. Pedestrian fatality rates for males, Hispanics, and the 15–34 and 35–54 year age groups were higher in Atlanta than in the United States overall. Pedestrian safety interventions should be targeted to high-risk populations and localized pedestrian settings.     

ISO 14001 certification and financial performance: selection-effect versus treatment-effect

The paper explores the bi-directional relationship between ISO 14001 certification and financial performance with the aim of shedding light on whether better performance is due to the beneficial effects of ISO 14001 or due to selection-effects where better performance precedes accreditation. The study uses a five year longitudinal analysis to compare the financial performance of firms in Spain before and after certification. The results of a multivariate panel data analysis find that firms with better than average performance have a greater propensity to pursue accreditation but there is no evidence that improvements in performance follow certification. This suggests that the inference that environmental variables cause improved financial performance may be unwise in research studies that can only measure association.     

Health implications of radon distribution in living rooms and bedrooms in U.K. dwellings--a case study in Northamptonshire

Environmental radon exposure of residents of domestic premises in the United Kingdom (UK) and elsewhere in Europe is estimated on the basis of the measured radon concentrations in, and the relative occupancies of, the principal living room and bedroom. While studies on radon concentration variability in the individual units in apartment blocks in various countries have been described, little data has been reported on variability in two-storey single-family dwellings, and the majority of extant studies consolidate living room and bedroom data early in the analysis. To investigate this further, detailed analysis was made of radon concentration data from a set of thirty-four homes situated in areas of Northamptonshire known to exhibit high radon levels. All homes were of typical UK construction of brick/block/stone walls under a pitched tile/slate roof. Approximately 50% of the sample were detached houses, the remainder being semi-detached (duplex) or terraced (row-house). Around 25% of the sample possessed cellars, while 12% were single-storey dwellings (bungalows), reflecting the typical incidence of this type of dwelling in England. In the two-storey homes, all monitored bedrooms were on the upper floor. Distribution of the ratios of bedroom/living room radon concentrations (BR/LR ratio) in individual properties was left-skewed (mean 0.67, median 0.73, range 0.05-1.05) with a tail extending to just above 1.0. The mean is consistent with the outcome of earlier extensive studies in England, while the variability depends principally on the characteristics of the property, and not on seasonal factors. In a small set of homes, the BR/LR ratio was anomalously low, (mean 0.3). BR/LR ratios in single-storey homes clustered around a value of 1.0, indicating that house design, rather than lifestyle, is the dominant factor in determining bedroom radon concentrations. Homes with higher mean annual radon concentrations showed lower BR/LR ratios, supporting our proposal that, in some homes, radon emanation from building materials may comprise a significant component of the overall radon level.     

Stable and radioiodine concentrations in cow milk: dependence on iodine intake

For testing the potential use of stable iodine as a countermeasure to reduce radioiodine transfer to milk, concentrations of stable iodine and radioiodine in the milk of dairy cows fed different amounts of stable iodine were measured. The results indicated that, compared to a normal average stable iodine intake of about 20 mg d(-1) for cows, low iodine dietary intake (<1.5 mg d(-1)) resulted in a reduced transfer of radioiodine to milk by 25%, varying stable iodine intakes in the range of 10-500 mg d(-1) did have no significant effect; at stable iodine intake rates above 1000 mg I d(-1), a reduction by a factor of approximately two was achieved. The high dietary iodine intakes--being about 100 times the normal iodine supply--required to reduce the radioiodine transfer significantly, will result in stable iodine concentrations in milk in excess of advised or legal limits for human consumption. Nevertheless, the provision of stable iodine via the milk pathway might be considered for emergency situations when stable iodine is used as a preventative measure for dose reduction to humans.     

The value of Seasonal Correction Factors in assessing the health risk from domestic radon: a case study in Northamptonshire, UK

Following an intensive survey of domestic radon levels in the United Kingdom (UK), the former National Radiological Protection Board (NRPB), now the Radiation Protection Division of the Health Protection Agency (HPA-RPD), established a measurement protocol and promulgated Seasonal Correction Factors applicable to the country as a whole. Radon levels in the domestic built environment are assumed to vary systematically and repeatably during the year, being generally higher in winter. The Seasonal Correction Factors therefore comprise a series of numerical multipliers, which convert a 1-month or 3-month radon concentration measurement, commencing in any month of the year, to an effective annual mean radon concentration. In a recent project undertaken to assess the utility of short-term exposures in quantifying domestic radon levels, a comparative assessment of a number of integrating detector types was undertaken, with radon levels in 34 houses on common geology monitored over a 12-month period using dose-integrating track-etch detectors exposed in pairs (one upstairs, one downstairs) at 1-month and 3-month resolution. Seasonal variability of radon concentrations departed significantly from that expected on the basis of the HPA-RPD Seasonal Correction Factor set, with year-end discontinuities at both 1-month and 3-month measurement resolutions. Following this study, monitoring with electrets was continued in four properties, with weekly radon concentration data now available for a total duration in excess of three and a half years. Analysis of this data has permitted the derivation of reliable local Seasonal Correction Factors. Overall, these are significantly lower than those recommended by HPA-RPD, but are comparable with other results from the UK and from abroad, particularly those that recognise geological diversity and are consequently prepared on a regional rather than a national basis. This finding calls into question the validity of using nationally aggregated Seasonal Correction Factors, especially for shorter exposures, and the universal applicability of these corrections is discussed in detail.     

Presence, biotransformation and effects of sulfophenylcarboxylic acids in the benthic fish Solea senegalensis

The presence of linear alkylbenzene sulfonates (LAS) and their degradation intermediates, sulfophenylcarboxylic acids (SPCs), with concentrations up to 100 ppb has been found in surface waters taken from the estuary of the river Guadalete (Cádiz, SW of Spain). Higher concentrations were found at the sampling site located adjacent to the discharge outlet of a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). The concentrations decreased downstream to a few ppb as a result of dilution, sorption, and degradation processes, which were taking place along the estuary. Once the presence of both xenobiotics was confirmed in the environment, an in vivo assay was conducted to study their biotransformation and effects in the benthic fish Solea senegalensis. A flow-through system was employed, consisting of an exposure phase (120 h) with environmental levels of the surfactant (200, 500 and 800 microg/L of 2?C(10)LAS), followed by a depuration stage (72 h). The generation of SPCs has been quantified during these phases in both water and fish, with LAS biotransformation shown in all cases. The antioxidant enzymes catalase (CAT), glutathione peroxidase (GPX), glutathione reductase (GR), the phase II enzyme glutathione S-transferase (GST), and the phase III acid and alkaline phosphatases (AcP, ALP) were also estimated and utilized as biomarkers.