Enhanced science–stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments

In recent years, climate impact assessments of relevance to the agricultural and forestry sectors have received considerable attention. Current ecosystem models commonly capture the effect of a warmer climate on biomass production, but they rarely sufficiently capture potential losses caused by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science–stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact modelling with policy and strategies for sustainable management. In this paper we give a brief overview of different ecosystem modelling methods, discuss how to include ecological and management aspects, and highlight the importance of science–stakeholder communication. By this, we hope to stimulate a discussion among the science–stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models.     

Evaluating anthropogenic N inputs to diverse lake basins: A case study of three Chinese lakes

The environmental degradation of lakes in China has become increasingly serious over the last 30 years and eutrophication resulting from enhanced nutrient inputs is considered a top threat. In this study, a quasi-mass balance method, net anthropogenic N inputs (NANI), was introduced to assess the human influence on N input into three typical Chinese lake basins. The resultant NANI exceeded 10 000 kg N km⁻² year⁻¹ for all three basins, and mineral fertilizers were generally the largest sources. However, rapid urbanization and shrinking agricultural production capability may significantly increase N inputs from food and feed imports. Higher percentages of NANI were observed to be exported at urban river outlets, suggesting the acceleration of NANI transfer to rivers by urbanization. Over the last decade, the N inputs have declined in the basins dominated by the fertilizer use but have increased in the basins dominated by the food and feed import. In the foreseeable future, urban areas may arise as new hotspots for nitrogen in China while fertilizer use may decline in importance in areas of high population density.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0638-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Toxicity of sediment cores from Yangtze River estuary to zebrafish (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Danio rerio</Emphasis>) embryos

Toxicity evaluation is an important segment in sediment quality monitoring in order to protect aquatic organisms and human health. The purpose of this study is to assess the toxicity of sediments from three sediment cores in Yangtze River Estuary, China, using the zebrafish (Danio rerio) embryo tests. Fertilized zebrafish eggs were exposed to both whole sediments and sediment organic extracts prepared from collected sediments, in order to provide a comprehensive and realistic insight into the bioavailable toxicity potential of the sediments. As end points, development parameters (mortality, hatching rate, and abnormality) in the developing embryos were recorded during the 96-h exposure. The results showed that some samples increased mortality, inhibited the hatching of embryos, and induced morphological abnormalities. The embryonic toxicities presented serrated changes and irregular distribution with depth, which may be related to hydrodynamic effect and unstable environmental input. However, lethal and sub-lethal effects were more significant at the sub-surface sediments (10～40 cm), which indicated that the pollution is more serious in recent decades.     

A method to estimate the impact of clear-cutting on nutrient concentrations in boreal headwater streams

Large-scale forestry operations, like clear-cutting, may impair surface water quality if not done with environmental considerations in mind. Catchment and country level estimates of nutrient loads from forestry are generally based on specific export values, i.e., changes in annual exports due to the implemented forestry operations expressed in kg ha⁻¹. We introduce here a specific concentration approach as a method to estimate the impact of clear-cutting on nutrient concentrations and export in headwater streams. This new method is potentially a more dynamic and flexible tool to estimate nutrient loads caused by forestry, because variation in annual runoff can be taken into account in load assessments. We combined water quality data from eight boreal headwater catchment pairs located in Finland and Sweden, where the effect of clear-cutting on stream water quality has been studied experimentally. Statistically significant specific concentration values could be produced for total nitrogen, nitrate, ammonium, and phosphate. The significant increases in the concentrations of these nutrients occurred between 2 and 6 years after clear-cutting. Significant specific concentration values could not be produced for total phosphorus and total organic carbon with the whole dataset, although in some single studies significant increases in their concentrations after clear-cutting were observed. The presented method enables taking into account variation in runoff, temporal dynamics of effects, and the proportional size of the treated area in load calculations. The number of existing studies considering large site-specific variation in responses to clear-cutting is small, and therefore further empirical studies are needed to improve predictive capabilities of the specific concentration values.     

Screening risk areas for sediment and phosphorus losses to improve placement of mitigation measures

Identification of vulnerable arable areas to phosphorus (P) losses is needed to effectively implement mitigation measures. Indicators for source (soil test P, STP), potential mobilization by erosion (soil dispersion), and transport (unit-stream power length-slope, LS) risks were used to screen the vulnerability to suspended solids (SS) and P losses in two contrasting catchments regarding topography, soil textural distribution, and STP. Soils in the first catchment ranged from loamy sand to clay loam, while clay soils were dominant in the second catchment. Long-term SS and total P losses were higher in the second catchment in spite of significantly lower topsoil STP. A higher proportion of areas in the second catchment were identified with higher risk due to the significantly higher risk of overland flow generation (LS) and a significantly higher mobilization risk in the soil dispersion laboratory tests. A simple screening method was presented to improve the placement of mitigation measures.     

微生物絮凝剂M-C11处理高岭土悬浊液的响应曲面优化

采用响应曲面法对微生物絮凝剂M-C11处理高岭土悬浊液的过程参数进行优化,选取中心复合实验设计(CCD),以p H、M-C11投加量和Ca Cl2投加量等因素为自变量,以处理后的高岭土悬浊液絮凝率(Fr)为响应值,并借助扫描电镜对絮凝剂的作用机理进行初步探讨。结果表明,微生物絮凝剂M-C11可显著改善高岭土悬浊液的絮凝性能,且选取的3种单因素水平均可影响絮凝剂活性。经多元回归拟合分析,在M-C11投加量为2.56 m L,Ca Cl2投加量为0.37 g/L的最优条件下,微生物絮凝活性实验值可达92.37%,接近模型预测值(92.30%)。Ca Cl2投加量对絮凝效果的影响高于M-C11投加量(PCa Cl2相似文献   

中国工业水污染及其成因的de Bruyn模型分析

选取废水、挥发酚、氰化物、COD、石油类和氨氮为中国工业水污染指标,利用分解分析方法将2004—2010年间的污染变化分解为规模效应、结构效应、污染治理效应、清洁技术效应和广义技术效应。结果显示,这5类效应的平均作用强度分别为2.08%、3.04%、15.61%、17.37%和32.88%,其中规模效应和广义技术效应是影响工业水污染的主导效应。各类效应对不同污染物的作用方向并不完全一致,规模效应促进污染物排放量的增加;结构效应以加重污染为主,污染治理效应和清洁技术效应以减轻污染为主;广义技术效应的平均作用强度和负向作用概率均最大,是现阶段中国工业水污染控制最为有效的手段。     

阳宗海沉积物中磷的稳定性

絮凝剂(Fe Cl3)治理阳宗海砷污染的过程中,水体中的磷被大量沉积进入底泥,弄清其是否会在环境条件变化后发生反溶形成二次污染对湖泊富营养化防治具有重要意义。通过模拟实验模拟泥-水界面p H变化、物理扰动和微生物活动的变化,旨在分析这些环境因子变化对沉积物中磷溶出的影响。结果表明,阳宗海水体在目前这种磷浓度下,底泥的磷会随时间的增加而溶出再次造成水体磷污染,当暴露在清洁水条件下时磷的释放率会增加;这种由于絮凝剂吸附沉淀到湖底的磷,在上覆水p H增加0.5时底泥磷解吸附释放速率增加;每年秋季湖泊上下层水的交换活动会造成水体磷浓度的季节性升高,形成不可忽视的磷内源。而夏季水温分层导致湖泊底部厌氧,使厌氧微生物活性增强,这将进一步促进底泥中磷的释放。