Analysing the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrology models

Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects) and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock.     

Determination of organophosphorus pesticides and related compounds in water samples by membrane extraction and gas chromatography

A membrane extraction-gas chromatography method was developed fordetermination of organophosphorus pesticides and related compounds including methamidophos, DDVP, dimethoate, methyl parathion, parathion, thiophosphoric acid trimethyl ester, and thiophosphoramidic acid dimethyl ester in water samples. In thismethod, surface-modified acetic cellulose membranes were used to extract the target analytes in water samples, the extracted analytes were back-extracted into a small amount of methanol, andgas chromatography with pulsed flame photometric detector (GC-PFPD) was used to determine the concentrations of targetanalytes in the extracts. The recoveries obtained for thetarget analytes spiked into the water samples ranged from 66to 94%. The method detection limit for each target analyte was 0.05 g L^-1. The method developed in this study had shown the advantages of being cheap, simple, fast, and reliable. It had been used successfully to determine the concentrations of target analytes in river water samples.     

Environmental quality control and environmental games

Conclusion  In this paper we have considered a specific environmental game emphasizing both control-prevention efforts and the propensity to pollute by a firm which adopts a given pollution abatement technology. A random payoff game was constructed and solved under a risk neutral assumption and quadratic utilities for both the firm and the environmental controller. The game thus defined, provides a wide range of interpretations and potential approaches for selecting a control-inspection policies to prevent environmental risks. There are of course many facets to this problem, which could be considered and have not been considered in sufficient depth. For example, more complex control mechanisms and liabilities, the effects of insurance and risk sharing, the application of cooperative efforts and subvention of pollution abatement investments (through tax incentives and their like), etc. have not been considered [5,7]. These are topics for further research. The basic presumption of this paper is that it is very difficult to fully enforce pollution prevention by firms, as a result, some controls are needed to ensure that firms be controlled so that appropriate efforts are carried.     

Integrating disciplinary research into an interdisciplinary framework: A case study in sustainability research

The complexity of today’s research problems increasingly demands that scientists move beyond the confines of their own discipline. In this special issue, the basics of a transdisciplinary framework are established and problems analyzed in a specific discipline are successfully integrated in this transdisciplinary network. The intent has been to go beyond only statements about the importance of enabling early stage researchers to work across disciplinary boundaries, and to show that important discoveries are being made at the intersection of disciplines. Embedding various research projects in a more global framework can meet the demands of an interdisciplinary or transdisciplinary approach (especially for early stage researchers) and contribute significantly to sustainable research.     

A study on the orbit of air temperature movement

In this paper, we describe an air temperature movement by mapping its time series to the polar coordinates: the value of the time series is plotted on the radial coordinate and the time on the angular coordinate. In this way, both the yearly and daily air temperature movements from five different locations of China are used to demonstrate that, in an intuitionistic view, air temperature movement is neither random nor chaotic, but has its own orbit. We then propose an elliptic orbit model for the air temperature movement. Our proposed model provides quite good results when it is applied to the evaluation of yearly air temperature movements in eight locations in various parts of the world, and the evaluation of daily air temperature movements in five locations in Hunan Province of China on December 17, 2005. Results show that our approach provides a concise and helpful model for air temperature analysis.     

中国北方干旱地区沙尘矿物特征研究

为了开展对我国沙暴传输规律的研究,了解我国北方干旱地区沙尘矿物特征有重要意义。本文对我国新疆塔克拉玛干沙漠区,内蒙腾格里沙漠区,贺兰山及银川等处的沙尘样品用X射线粉末衍射法进行矿物分析鉴定,并用原子吸收法作了特征元素的分析对比,根据矿物的X射线粉末衍射结果,结合元素分析,对沙漠源区及其以东地区沙尘矿物特征作了比较,判析了两个源区的矿物组成,讨论了它们的传输过程。     

Assessing land use impacts on flood processes in complex terrain by using GIS and modeling approach

A distributed hydrologic modeling and GIS approach is applied for the assessment of land use impact in the Steinsel sub-basin, Alzette, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg. The assessment focuses on the runoff contributions from different land use classes and the potential impact of land use changes on runoff generation. The results show that the direct runoff from urban areas is dominant for a flood event compared with runoff from other land use areas in this catchment, and tends to increase for small floods and for the dry season floods, whereas the interflow from forested, pasture and agricultural field areas contributes to the recession flow. Significant variations in flood volume, peak discharge, time to the peak, etc., are found from the model simulation based on the three hypothetical land use change scenarios.     

Application of a checklist for quality assistance in environmental modelling to an energy model

Large, complex energy models present considerable challenges to develop and test. Uncertainty assessments of such models provide only partial guidance on the quality of the results. We have developed a model quality assistance checklist to aid in this purpose. The model checklist provides diagnostic output in the form of a set of pitfalls for the model application. The checklist is applied here to an energy model for the problem of assessing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Use of the checklist suggests that results on this issue are contingent on a number of assumptions that are highly value-laden. When these assumptions are held fixed, the model is deemed capable of producing moderately robust results of relevance to climate policy over the longer term. Checklist responses also indicate that a number of details critical to policy choices or outcomes on this issue are not captured in the model, and model results should therefore be supplemented with alternative analyses.     

沙湾荒漠区生态环境的植物监测

利用植物生态学常规方法进行了荒漠植被种群生物量和数量特证调查,以植物为监测对象,并就群落地上部分生物量,Shannon-Wiener多样性指数,群落均匀度,生态优势度等指标探讨了在荒漠生态环境监测和评价中的具体应用。     

寻找紧缺的银矿资源——地质工作者的急迫使命

由于近二十年来全世界工业的快速发展 ,银的用途益发广泛 ,白银需求量迅猛增加 ,它不仅是我国紧缺的矿产资源 ,而且已成为世界市场上的走俏商品 ,全世界已连续九年需大于供 ,九年累计缺银 1 0亿盎司 ,并且缺口越来越大。专家们预测 :到 1 998年底全世界库存的银锭消耗殆尽。我国前几年有 1 / 2 -1 / 3的白银靠进口 ,1 997年还进口白银 1 55吨。因而 ,银价剧烈上扬 ,从 1 996年的 4美元 /盎司 ,涨到 1 998年 2月份的 7.81美元 /盎司。与白银相反 ,近两年黄金供远过于求 ,1 997年全世界多出 3 93吨 ,故金价急剧下跌 ,从 1 996年的 3 87.87美元 /盎司 ,降到 1 998年 6月份的 2 87.9美元/盎司。由于银需求量增大 ,加之有色金属工业的不景气 ,银产量不仅不能增长 ,而且反而下降。因而人们提出寻找能根据需要而生产的、具有独立开采价值的银矿床 ,即独立银矿床。全世界有三大巨型成矿带 ,我国有四大银成矿区。这些成矿区带的核心是火山 -岩浆活动带。银成矿区带都受巨型或区域深大断裂带控制 ,独立银矿床多产于区域深大断裂带旁侧的次级断层交汇处或附近。独立银矿床的直接围岩可以是火成岩、沉积岩和变质岩 ,但是它们位于火山岩浆活动带中 ,而且以火山岩为主。