Estimates from a consumer demand system: implications for the incidence of environmental taxes

Most studies suggest that environmental taxes are regressive, making them less attractive policy options. We consider the distributional effects of a gasoline tax increase using four incidence measures and under three scenarios for gas tax revenue use. To incorporate behavioral responses we use Consumer Expenditure Survey data to estimate a consumer demand system that includes gasoline, other goods, and leisure. Our estimates confirm that when revenues are not recycled, a gasoline tax is regressive. Use of incidence measures that ignore demand responses, however, will substantially overstate this regressivity. In contrast, the differences between the equivalent variation and easier-to-implement consumer surplus measures are relatively small. In addition, our results suggest that using the additional gas tax revenue to fund labor tax cuts makes the policy substantially less regressive while using the revenue to fund lump-sum transfers actually makes it progressive.     

A capture-recapture model with heterogeneity and behavioural response

We develop the non-parametric maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the full M_bh capture-recapture model which utilizes both initial capture and recapture data and permits both heterogeneity (h) between animals and behavioural (b) response to capture. Our MLE procedure utilizes non-parametric maximum likelihood estimation of mixture distributions (Lindsay, 1983; Lindsay and Roeder, 1992) and the EM algorithm (Dempsteret al., 1977). Our MLE estimate provides the first non-parametric estimate of the bivariate capture-recapture distribution.Since non-parametric maximum likelihood estimation exists for submodels M_h (allowing heterogeneity only), Mb (allowing behavioural response only) and M₀ (allowing no changes), we develop maximum likelihood-based model selection, specifically the Akaike information criterion (AIC) (Akaike, 1973). The AIC procedure does well in detecting behavioural response but has difficulty in detecting heterogeneity.     

A Spatially Explicit Decision Support Model for Restoration of Forest Bird Habitat

Abstract:  The historical area of bottomland hardwood forest in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley has been reduced by >75%. Agricultural production was the primary motivator for deforestation; hence, clearing deliberately targeted higher and drier sites. Remaining forests are highly fragmented and hydrologically altered, with larger forest fragments subject to greater inundation, which has negatively affected many forest bird populations. We developed a spatially explicit decision support model, based on a Partners in Flight plan for forest bird conservation, that prioritizes forest restoration to reduce forest fragmentation and increase the area of forest core (interior forest >1 km from "hostile" edge). Our primary objective was to increase the number of forest patches that harbor >2000 ha of forest core, but we also sought to increase the number and area of forest cores >5000 ha. Concurrently, we targeted restoration within local (320 km²) landscapes to achieve ≥60% forest cover. Finally, we emphasized restoration of higher-elevation bottomland hardwood forests in areas where restoration would not increase forest fragmentation. Reforestation of 10% of restorable land in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (approximately 880,000 ha) targeted at priorities established by this decision support model resulted in approximately 824,000 ha of new forest core. This is more than 32 times the amount of core forest added through reforestation of randomly located fields (approximately 25,000 ha). The total area of forest core (1.6 million ha) that resulted from targeted restoration exceeded habitat objectives identified in the Partners in Flight Bird Conservation Plan and approached the area of forest core present in the 1950s.     

Predators usurp prey defenses? Toxicokinetics of tetrodotoxin in common garter snakes after consumption of rough-skinned newts

Snakes are common predators of organisms, such as amphibians, with toxic defenses that can be lethal to other predators. Because snakes do not have the option of dissecting prey into edible versus inedible components, they face a full dose of any chemical defenses encountered during attempted predation. This limitation has likely resulted in intense selection favoring the evolution of alternative mechanisms for dealing with prey toxins. These mechanisms can be physiological (e.g., resistance to prey toxins) or behavioral (e.g., toxin sampling and rejection). When physiological resistance arises, the possibility of bioaccumulation of a toxin results. We examined the coevolutionary interaction between the common garter snake (Thamnophis sirtalis) and the rough-skinned newt (Taricha granulosa), which contains a powerful neurotoxin called tetrodotoxin (TTX). In some populations syntopic with newts, individuals of T. sirtalis have evolved resistance to TTX. We examined the persistence of TTX in T. sirtalis after administration of an oral dose of TTX to investigate the possibility that snakes are sequestering TTX. The half-life of TTX in snake liver was estimated at 8.1?days. Accordingly, clearance of 99% of a single dose of TTX averages 61?days. Negative fitness consequences of intoxication during and after newt consumption may be balanced by co-opting the newts?? chemical defense for protection from the snakes?? own predators. Accounting of the coevolutionary dynamic between snakes and newts must incorporate post-consumption affects of lingering TTX.     

Support services for lift irrigation in Bangladesh

The impacts of changing support systems for lift irrigation in Bangladesh from the public to the private sector are examined. Data are presented from an extensive study undertaken by IIMI and the Bangladesh Agricultural University. The results of the study clearly demonstrate that farmers, small dealers and input sellers all feel that transfer to the private sector has improved the quality of support services. As a result of the privatization of support services, more fuel is available, it is closer to the farms and there is less adulteration. A similar case holds for agricultural chemicals. In addition to improving the situation for small farmers, privatization has created thousands of jobs for small traders and repair shops. Data are presented that document the improvements in services and the expansion of small traders. The one issue that still must be solved is the future of deep tubewells, as the article documents that they are not economically vaiable without Government subsidies.     

Nitrate reduction during ground-water recharge, Southern High Plains, Texas

In arid and semi-arid environments, artificial recharge or reuse of wastewater may be desirable for water conservation, but NO₃⁻ contamination of underlying aquifers can result. On the semi-arid Southern High Plains (USA), industrial wastewater, sewage, and feedlot runoff have been retained in dozens of playas, depressions that focus recharge to the regionally important High Plains (Ogallala) aquifer. Analyses of ground water, playa-basin core extracts, and soil gas in an 860-km² area of Texas suggest that reduction during recharge limits NO₃⁻ loading to ground water. Tritium and Cl⁻ concentrations in ground water corroborate prior findings of focused recharge through playas and ditches. Typical δ¹⁵N values in ground water (>12.5‰) and correlations between δ¹⁵N and ln C_NO⁻3–N suggest denitrification, but O₂ concentrations ≥3.24 mg l⁻¹ indicate that NO₃⁻ reduction in ground water is unlikely. The presence of denitrifying and NO₃⁻-respiring bacteria in cores, typical soil–gas δ¹⁵N values <0‰, and decreases in NO₃⁻–N/Cl⁻ and SO₄²⁻/Cl⁻ ratios with depth in cores suggest that reduction occurs in the upper vadose zone beneath playas. Reduction may occur beneath flooded playas or within anaerobic microsites beneath dry playas. However, NO₃⁻–N concentrations in ground water can still exceed drinking-water standards, as observed in the vicinity of one playa that received wastewater. Therefore, continued ground-water monitoring in the vicinity of other such basins is warranted.     

Nutrient criteria for lakes,ponds, and reservoirs: A Bayesian TREED model approach

We develop regional-scale eutrophication models for lakes, ponds, and reservoirs to investigate the link between nutrients and chlorophyll-a. The Bayesian TREED (BTREED) model approach allows association of multiple environmental stressors with biological responses, and quantification of uncertainty sources in the empirical water quality model. Nutrient data for lakes, ponds, and reservoirs across the United States were obtained from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Nutrient Criteria Database. The nutrient data consist of measurements for both stressor variables (such as total nitrogen and total phosphorus), and response variables (such as chlorophyll-a), used in the BTREED model. Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) posterior exploration guides a stochastic search through a rich suite of candidate trees toward models that better fit the data. The Bayes factor provides a goodness of fit criterion for comparison of resultant models. We randomly split the data into training and test sets; the training data were used in model estimation, and the test data were used to evaluate out-of-sample predictive performance of the model. An average relative efficiency of 1.02 between the training and test data for the four highest log-likelihood models suggests good out-of-sample predictive performance. Reduced model uncertainty relative to over-parameterized alternative models makes the BTREED models useful for nutrient criteria development, providing the link between nutrient stressors and meaningful eutrophication response.     

Considering the positive possibilities of leader political behavior

This Incubator presents an overview of a new construct, leader political support, which captures the positive possibilities of leaders' political behavior. A discussion of why leader political support may seem paradoxical is included, as well as a presentation of the need for its consideration and the research possibilities it provides. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.