TREND ASSESSMENT OF WATER QUALITY TIME SERIES1

ABSTRACT A general methodology is described for identifying and statistically modeling trends which may be contained in a water quality time series. A range of useful exploratory data analysis tools are suggested for discovering important patterns and statistical characteristics of the data such as trends caused by external interventions. To estimate the entries in an evenly spaced time series when data are available at irregular time intervals, a new procedure based upon seasonal adjustment is described. Intervention analysis is employed at the confirmatory data analysis stage to rigorously model changes in the mean levels of a series which are identified using exploratory data analysis techniques. Furthermore, intervention analysis can be utilized for estimating missing observations when they are not too numerous. The effects of cutting down a forest upon various water quality variables and also the consequences of acid rain upon the alkalinity in a stream provide illustrative applications which demonstrate the effectiveness of the methodology.     

Use of an In Situ Erosion Flume for Measuring Stability of Sediment Deposits in Hamilton Harbour,Canada

An in situ erosion flume was used to measure the stability of sediment deposits in Hamilton Harbour, Ontario, Canada. The flume consists of a rectangular duct with an opening at the bottom. A submerged pump attached to the downstream end of the flume circulates the ambient water through the flume, thereby generating turbulent shear flows inside the flume. When the flume rests on a sediment deposit, the exposed part of the sediment deposit is subjected to the flow shear stress. By applying a continually increasing flow shear stress on the sediment deposit and by measuring the amount of sediment erosion, it is possible to assess the erosional stability of the sediment deposits. An under water video camera was mounted on the flume to get visual images of the sediment erosion process. The flume was used at two sites in the Harbour. The erosional resistances measured by the flume for the two sites were different. Measurement of dry density of the sediment deposits using an ultrasonic device was carried out to explain the differences in the stability of sediment deposits from the two sites.     

Comparison of Multiple Passage Integrated Cell Culture-PCR and Cytopathogenic Effects in Cell Culture for the Assessment of Poliovirus Survival in Water

The goal of this study was to determine if a cytopathogenic effects (CPE) cell culture assay and an integrated cell culture PCR (ICC-PCR) assay would yield similar or different results when used to assess virus survival in water. Poliovirus type 1 was added to dechlorinated tapwater and stored at room temperature (22.5–24°C) for a total of 50 days. Samples were assayed at defined time intervals by the most probable number (MPN) method on Buffalo green monkey kidney cells (BGM) by CPE and additionally by ICC-PCR. Monolayers that were CPE negative on first passage were passed onto fresh monolayers of cells for a second and third time if still negative. By CPE assay, second passage was observed to yield a greater titer (2,300 vs. 24,000 MPN/ml) and third passage also resulted in an increased titer. ICC-PCR proved to be a more rapid and sensitive method than conventional cell culture for determining virus inactivation rates in water. Poliovirus survived in tapwater for up to 32 days, as assessed by both third passage ICC-PCR and CPE. There was no statistical difference in the inactivation rates between the two methods. To determine the total number of infectious viruses, these findings indicate the need for performing three cell culture passages or, alternatively, ICC-PCR on first passage.     

Effects of different management strategies on long-term trends of Australian threatened and near-threatened mammals

Monitoring is critical to assess management effectiveness, but broadscale systematic assessments of monitoring to evaluate and improve recovery efforts are lacking. We compiled 1808 time series from 71 threatened and near-threatened terrestrial and volant mammal species and subspecies in Australia (48% of all threatened mammal taxa) to compare relative trends of populations subject to different management strategies. We adapted the Living Planet Index to develop the Threatened Species Index for Australian Mammals and track aggregate trends for all sampled threatened mammal populations and for small (<35 g), medium (35–5500 g), and large mammals (>5500 g) from 2000 to 2017. Unmanaged populations (42 taxa) declined by 63% on average; unmanaged small mammals exhibited the greatest declines (96%). Populations of 17 taxa in havens (islands and fenced areas that excluded or eliminated introduced red foxes [Vulpes vulpes] and domestic cats [Felis catus]) increased by 680%. Outside havens, populations undergoing sustained predator baiting initially declined by 75% but subsequently increased to 47% of their abundance in 2000. At sites where predators were not excluded or baited but other actions (e.g., fire management, introduced herbivore control) occurred, populations of small and medium mammals declined faster, but large mammals declined more slowly, than unmanaged populations. Only 13% of taxa had data for both unmanaged and managed populations; index comparisons for this subset showed that taxa with populations increasing inside havens declined outside havens but taxa with populations subject to predator baiting outside havens declined more slowly than populations with no management and then increased, whereas unmanaged populations continued to decline. More comprehensive and improved monitoring (particularly encompassing poorly represented management actions and taxonomic groups like bats and small mammals) is required to understand whether and where management has worked. Improved implementation of management for threats other than predation is critical to recover Australia's threatened mammals.     

Enhanced anaerobic bioremediation in a DNAPL residual source zone: Test Area North case study

An Interstate Technology and Regulatory Council (ITRC) forum was recently held that focused on case studies in which bioremediation of dense nonaqueous‐phase liquids (DNAPLs) was performed. This first case study, the Test Area North (TAN) site of the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, involves a trichloroethene (TCE) residual source area in a deep, fractured basalt aquifer that has been undergoing enhanced bioremediation since January 1999. Complete dechlorination from TCE to ethene was documented within nine months of operation, and sodium lactate injections were shown to enhance TCE mass transfer from the residual source. Since that time, optimization of injection strategies has maintained efficient dechlorination while demonstrating accelerated cleanup at a lower cost by changing to a whey powder amendment that solubilizes DNAPL. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Beyond “best practice” road safety thinking and systems management – A case for culture change research

Forecasts of an “explosion” in the level of road trauma as many of the world’s most populous nations rapidly motorise have contributed to the urgency of documenting best practice thinking and management systems to improve road safety performance. By examining the success stories of nations with either the lowest fatailty rates per head of population or with the largest recent improvements a number of “lessons” have emerged. Data-driven problem identification and the development of evidence-driven countermeasure packages formalised in a strategy for effective implementation, with ambitious, quantitative targets and transparent lines of institutional accountability are the critical success factors. Basing this planning upon the cornerstones of the safe system conceptual model constitutes best practice thinking. This paper argues that critical elements of the safe system model are in discord with behavioural mores in the cultures of many western motorised nations and that this hampers the adoption of the most effective safety programs within key institutions and within political systems. A case is made for a systematic examination of car use and safety cultures in order to add a further dimension to best practice learnings.     

Residues of p,p’-DDT and hexachlorobenzene in human milk from Indonesian women

Milk from Indonesian women (n = 4) was analysed for p,p’-DDT and the fungicide, hexachlorobenzene (HCB). p,p’-DDT was found in all of the samples and at levels that are amongst the highest reported anywhere in the world in 3 of the samples. HCB was found in all 4 samples, 1 sample had an exceptionally high level. The high residue of HCB suggested exposure by eating dressed grain, major environmental contamination or direct exposure when handling the fungicide. These are the first data on pesticide residues in milk from Indonesian women which demonstrate general exposure to p,p’-DDT and HCB.     

Association patterns among wild chimpanzees (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii</Emphasis>) reflect sex differences in cooperation

Theory predicts that frequent dyadic association should promote cooperation through kin selection or social tolerance. Here we test the hypothesis that sex differences in the strength and stability of association preferences among free-ranging chimpanzees conform to sex differences in cooperative behavior. Using long-term data from the Kanyawara chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii) community (Kibale National Park, Uganda), we calculated indices of intra-sexual dyadic association over a 10-year period. We found that (1) male–male dyads had significantly stronger association indices than female–female dyads, (2) the pattern of association preferences in both sexes changed little over the entire study period, and (3) when comparing periods with different alpha males, changes in association strength were more frequent among males. These results demonstrate that both the strength and stability of association patterns are important components of social relationships. Male chimpanzees, which are characterized by frequent cooperation, had association preferences that were both strong and stable, suggesting that forming long-term bonds is an important dominance strategy. However, the fact that male association patterns were sensitive to upheaval in the male dominance hierarchy suggests that males also take advantage of a changing social climate when choosing association partners. By contrast, the overall strength of female associations was relatively weak. Female association preferences were equally stable as males’; however, this reflected a dyad’s tendency to be found in the same party rather than to associate closely within that party. Therefore, in this community, female association patterns appear to be more a consequence of individual ranging behavior rather than a correlate of cooperation.     

Tug-of-war over reproduction in a cooperatively breeding cichlid

In group-living animals, dominants may suppress subordinate reproduction directly and indirectly, thereby skewing reproduction in their favour. In this study, we show experimentally that this ability (‘power’) is influenced by resource distribution and the body size difference between unrelated dominants and subordinates in the cichlid Neolamprologus pulcher. Reproduction was strongly skewed towards the dominant female, due to these females producing more and larger clutches and those clutches surviving egg eating better than those of subordinate females, but was not so when subordinates defended a patch. If breeding shelters were provided in two patches, subordinate females were more likely to exclusively defend a patch against the dominant female and breed, compared to when the same breeding resource was provided in one patch. Relatively large subordinate females were more likely to defend a patch and reproduce. Females also directly interfered with each other’s reproduction by eating the competitors’ eggs, at which dominants were more successful. Although dominant females benefited from subordinate females due to alloparental care and an increase in egg mass, they also showed costs due to reduced growth in the presence of subordinates. The results support the view that the dominant’s power to control subordinate reproduction determines reproductive partitioning, in agreement with the predictions from tug-of-war models of reproductive skew.