Model projected heat extremes and air pollution in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East in the twenty-first century

The eastern Mediterranean and Middle East, a region with diverse socioeconomic and cultural identities, is exposed to strong climatic gradients between its temperate north and arid south. Model projections of the twenty-first century indicate increasing hot weather extremes and decreasing rainfall. We present model results, which suggest that across the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey climate change is particularly rapid, and especially summer temperatures are expected to increase strongly. Temperature rise can be amplified by the depletion of soil moisture, which limits evaporative cooling, prompted by the waning of large-scale weather systems that generate rain. Very hot summers that occurred only rarely in the recent past are projected to become common by the middle and the end of the century. Throughout the region, the annual number of heat wave days may increase drastically. Furthermore, conditions in the region are conducive for photochemical air pollution. Our model projections suggest strongly increasing ozone formation, a confounding health risk factor particularly in urban areas. This adds to the high concentrations of aerosol particles from natural (desert dust) and anthropogenic sources. The heat extremes may have strong impacts, especially in the Middle East where environmental stresses are plentiful.     

Adaptation options for marine industries and coastal communities using community structure and dynamics

Identifying effective adaptation strategies for coastal communities dependent on marine resources and impacted by climate change can be difficult due to the dynamic nature of marine ecosystems. The task is more difficult if current and predicted shifts in social and economic trends are considered. Information about social and economic change is often limited to qualitative data. A combination of qualitative and quantitative models provide the flexibility to allow the assessment of current and future ecological and socio-economic risks and can provide information on alternative adaptations. Here, we demonstrate how stakeholder input, qualitative models and Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can provide semi-quantitative predictions, including uncertainty levels, for the assessment of climate and non-climate-driven change in a case study community. Issues are identified, including the need to increase the capacity of the community to cope with change. Adaptation strategies are identified that alter positive feedback cycles contributing to a continued decline in population, local employment and retail spending. For instance, the diversification of employment opportunities and the attraction of new residents of different ages would be beneficial in preventing further population decline. Some impacts of climate change can be combated through recreational bag or size limits and monitoring of popular range-shifted species that are currently unmanaged, to reduce the potential for excessive removal. Our results also demonstrate that combining BBNs and qualitative models can assist with the effective communication of information between stakeholders and researchers. Furthermore, the combination of techniques provides a dynamic, learning-based, semi-quantitative approach for the assessment of climate and socio-economic impacts and the identification of potential adaptation strategies.     

Levels of household particulate matter and environmental tobacco smoke exposure in the first year of life for a cohort at risk for asthma in urban Syracuse, NY

The Syracuse, NY, AUDIT (Assessment of Urban Dwellings for Indoor Toxics) study was designed to quantify asthma agent levels in the inner-city homes of a birth cohort whose mothers had a diagnosis of asthma. Risk of exposure to particulate matter (PM), particle number and tobacco smoke was assessed in 103 infants' homes. Repeat measurements were made in 44% of the homes. Infants also were examined on a quarterly basis during the first year of life to monitor their respiratory health and urine cotinine levels. Overall geometric mean (GM) values for PM(2.5) of 21.2 μg/m(3) and for PM(10) of 31.8 μg/m(3) were recorded in homes at visit 1. GM values for PM(2.5) and PM(10) in smoking homes were higher at 26.3 and 37.7 μg/m(3), while values in non-smoking homes were 12.7 and 21.2 μg/m(3) respectively. Fifty-four percent of mothers (55/103) smoked at some point in pregnancy (39% smoked throughout pregnancy). Environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure occurred in 68% of homes during the infants' first year. Significant to this study was the size- and time-resolved monitoring of PM at 140 home visits and the classification of PM count data. PM number counts ranged from continuously low levels (little indoor activity) to continuously high counts (constant indoor activity), and recorded apparent instances of prolonged repeated cigarette smoking. Wheezing in the first year of life was recorded for 38% of the infants (39/103). Adjusted logistic regression modeling demonstrated that elevated levels of indoor PM(2.5) (≥ 15 μg/m(3)) were a significant risk factor for infant wheezing after controlling for infant gender, mothers' age and education level, season of home visit and presence of carpeting (OR 4.21; 95% CI 1.36-13.03; p=0.013). An elevated level of the nicotine metabolite cotinine in infant urine also was associated with infant wheezing after adjusting for infant gender, mothers' age and education level (OR 5.10; 95% CI 0.96-27.24; p=0.057). ETS exposure was pervasive in the AUDIT cohort and a risk for developing infants in this urban population.     

Perfluoroalkyl carboxylates and sulfonates and precursors in relation to dietary source tracers in the eggs of four species of gulls (Larids) from breeding sites spanning Atlantic to Pacific Canada

In the present study, we identified and examined the spatial trends, sources and dietary relationships of bioaccumulative perfluorinated sulfonate (PFSA; C(6), C(8), and C(10) chain lengths) and carboxylate (PFCA; C(6) to C(15) chain lengths) contaminants, as well as precursor compounds including several perfluorinated sulfonamides, and fluorotelomer acids and alcohols, in individual eggs (collected in 2008) from four gull species [glaucous-winged (Larus glaucescens), California (Larus californicus), ring-billed (Larus delawarensis) and herring (Larus argentatus) gulls] from 15 marine and freshwater colony sites in provinces across Canada. The pattern of PFSAs was dominated by perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS; >89% of ΣPFSA concentration) regardless of egg collection location. The highest ΣPFSA concentrations were found in the eggs collected in the urbanized areas in the Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence River area [Big Chicken Island 308 ng/g ww, Toronto Harbour 486 ng/g ww, and Ile Deslauriers (HG) 299 ng/g ww]. Also, eggs from all freshwater colony sites had higher ΣPFSA concentrations, which were significant (p<0.05) in many cases, compared to the marine sites with the exception of the Sable Island colony in Atlantic Canada off the coast of Nova Scotia. C(6) to C(15) chain length PFCAs were detected in the eggs, although the pattern was variable among the 15 sites, where PFUnA and PFTrA dominated the pattern for most colonies. Like the ΣPFSA, the highest concentrations of ΣPFCA were found in the eggs from Big Chicken Island, Toronto Harbour, Ile Deslauriers (HG), and Sable Island, although not all freshwater sites had higher concentrations compared to marine sites. Dietary tracers [δ(15)N and δ(13)C stable isotopes (SIs)] revealed that PFSA and PFCA exposure is colony dependent. SI signatures suggested that gulls from most marine colony sites were exposed to PFCs via marine prey. The exception was the Mandarte Island colony in Pacific British Columbia, where PFSA and PFCA exposure appeared to be via terrestrial and/or freshwater prey consumption. The same was true for the freshwater sites where egg SIs suggested both aquatic and terrestrial prey consumption as the source for PFC exposure depending on the colony. Both aquatic (marine and freshwater) and terrestrial prey are likely sources of PFC exposure to gulls but exposure scenarios are colony-specific.     

A temporal trend study (1972-2008) of perfluorooctanesulfonate, perfluorohexanesulfonate, and perfluorooctanoate in pooled human milk samples from Stockholm, Sweden

The widespread presence of perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS), perfluorooctanoate (PFOA), and perfluorohexanesulfonate (PFHxS) in human general populations and their slow elimination profiles have led to renewed interest in understanding the potential human neonatal exposures of perfluoroalkyls (PFAs) from consumption of human milk. The objective of this study was to evaluate the concentrations of PFOS, PFHxS, and PFOA in pooled human milk samples obtained in Sweden between 1972 and 2008 (a period representing the most significant period of PFA production) and to see whether the time trend of these analytes parallels that indicated in human serum. Chemical analysis of PFOS, PFHxS, and PFOA was performed on pooled Swedish human milk samples from 1972 to 2008 after methodological refinements. The 20 samples which formed the 2007 pool were also analyzed individually to evaluate sample variations. Analyses were performed by HPLC-MS/MS. Due to the complexities of the human milk matrix and the requirement to accurately quantitate low pg/mL concentrations, meticulous attention must be paid to background contamination if accurate results are to be obtained. PFOS was the predominant analyte present in the pools and all three analytes showed statistically significant increasing trends from 1972 to 2000, with concentrations reaching a plateau in the 1990s. PFOA and PFOS showed statistically significant decreasing trends during 2001-2008. At the end of the study, in 2008, the measured concentrations of PFOS, PFHxS, and PFOA in pooled human milk were 75 pg/mL, 14 pg/mL, and 74 pg/mL, respectively. The temporal concentration trends of PFOS, PFHxS, and PFOA observed in human milk are parallel to those reported in the general population serum concentrations.     

Antlers of Cervus elaphus as biomonitors of ⁹⁰Sr in the environment

Adequate radioprotection of the environment requires the identification of biomonitors sensitive to the variation of its radionuclide content. Due to the chemical similarities between calcium and strontium, calcified tissues of mammals are considered to be good ⁹⁰Sr biomonitors. This work considered Cervus elaphus antlers which, being shed annually, can give information about the importance of radiostrontium contamination in an ecosystem in the time period required for the growth of the antler. The samples were collected at various points of W and SW Spain. The mean value of their ⁹⁰Sr content was (70 ± 43 (S.D.)) Bq/kg d.w., range (16-218) Bq/kg d.w., and the radionuclide was evenly distributed in the different parts of the antler. There was a good correlation between the antlers’ ⁹⁰Sr content and the ⁹⁰Sr deposited in the soil. The antlers’ content of ²²⁶Ra (from the natural uranium series) and the contents of some stable elements (Ca, Mg, Sr, and K) were also determined. The values for these stable elements were practically constant in the analyzed samples, and the concentrations measured decreased in the following order:Ca » Mg > K > Sr » ⁹⁰Sr > ²²⁶Ra     

Inhalation dose assessment of indoor radon progeny using biokinetic and dosimetric modeling and its application to Jordanian population

High indoor radon concentrations in Jordan result in internal exposures of the residents due to the inhalation of radon and its short-lived progeny. It is therefore important to quantify the annual effective dose and further the radiation risk to the radon exposure. This study describes the methodology and the biokinetic and dosimetric models used for calculation of the inhalation doses exposed to radon progeny. The regional depositions of aerosol particles in the human respiratory tract were firstly calculated. For the attached progeny, the activity median aerodynamic diameters of 50 nm, 230 nm and 2500 nm were chosen to represent the nucleation, accumulation and coarse modes of the aerosol particles, respectively. For the unattached progeny, the activity median thermodynamic diameter of 1 nm was chosen to represent the free progeny nuclide in the room air. The biokinetic models developed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) were used to calculate the nuclear transformations of radon progeny in the human body, and then the dosimetric model was applied to estimate the organ equivalent doses and the effective doses with the specific effective energies derived from the mathematical anthropomorphic phantoms. The dose conversion coefficient estimated in this study was 15 mSv WLM⁻¹ which was in the range of the values of 6-20 mSv WLM⁻¹ reported by other investigators. Implementing the average indoor radon concentration in Jordan, the annual effective doses were calculated to be 4.1 mSv y⁻¹ and 0.08 mSv y⁻¹ due to the inhalation of radon progeny and radon gas, respectively. The total annual effective dose estimated for Jordanian population was 4.2 mSv y⁻¹. This high annual effective dose calculated by the dosimetric approach using ICRP biokinetic and dosimetric models resulted in an increase of a factor of two in comparison to the value by epidemiological study. This phenomenon was presented by the ICRP in its new published statement on radon.     

Technologically enhanced 210Pb and 210Po in iron and steel industry

Iron and steel manufacture has been ranked as the largest industrial source of environmental contamination in the USA; the wastes generated in their production processes contain heavy elements that can be a source of contamination, and natural radionuclides that can produce an occupational and/or public radiological impact. In this work the potential occupational effective dose rate (μSv/y) due to inhalation in four integrated steel-making factories from Egypt has been evaluated, by assuming a well defined scenario and with basis in the ²¹⁰Pb and ²¹⁰Po activity concentrations determined in ore and wastes collected in the aforementioned factories. Activity concentrations, in Bq/kg, of ²¹⁰Pb and ²¹⁰Po, and leachable Pb and Fe were measured using gamma-ray spectrometry based on HPGe detector, alpha particle spectrometry based on PIPS detector, and inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Levels of ²¹⁰Pb and ²¹⁰Po in the range of <DL-4238 and 1-5660 Bq/kg, respectively, were found. According to the assumed scenarios, the occupational exposures by inhalation are much lower than the recommended annual effective dose limit, although the environmental impact due to waste storage and/or use should be considered based on case by case evaluation.     

Inventory and vertical migration of 90Sr fallout and 137Cs/90Sr ratio in Spanish mainland soils

In this paper the inventory of ⁹⁰Sr in 34 points distributed along the Spanish peninsular territory is presented. Obtained values range between 173 Bq/m² and 2047 Bq/m². From these data set and those ¹³⁷Cs data obtained in a previous work the ¹³⁷Cs/⁹⁰Sr activity ratio has been established, laying this value between 0.9 and 3.6. Also the migration depth of both radionuclides has been analysed obtaining for ¹³⁷Cs an average value 57% lower than that obtained for ⁹⁰Sr.Additionally, this paper presents the results obtained in 11 sampling points in which the activity vertical profile has been measured. These profiles have been analysed to state the behaviour of strontium in soils and after, by using a convective-diffusive model, the parameters of the model which governs the vertical migration of ⁹⁰Sr in the soil, v (apparent convection velocity) and D (apparent diffusion coefficient) have been evaluated. Mean values obtained are 0.20 cm/year and 3.67 cm²/year, respectively.