Bayesian Small Area Models for Assessing Wildlife Conservation Risk in Patchy Populations

Abstract:  Species conservation risk assessments require accurate, probabilistic, and biologically meaningful maps of population distribution. In patchy populations, the reasons for discontinuities are not often well understood. We tested a novel approach to habitat modeling in which methods of small area estimation were used within a hierarchical Bayesian framework. Amphibian occurrence was modeled with logistic regression that included third-order drainages as hierarchical effects to account for patchy populations. Models including the random drainage effects adequately represented species occurrences in patchy populations of 4 amphibian species in the Oregon Coast Range (U.S.A.). Amphibian surveys from other locations within the same drainage were used to calibrate local drainage-scale effects. Cross-validation showed that prediction errors for calibrated models were 77% to 86% lower than comparable regionally constructed models, depending on species. When calibration data were unavailable, small area and regional models performed similarly, although poorly. Small area estimation models complement wildlife ecology and habitat studies, and can help managers develop a regional picture of the conservation status for relatively rare species.     

Female seed beetles, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Callosobruchus maculatus,</Emphasis> remate for male-supplied water rather than ejaculate nutrition

Female seed beetles, Callosobruchus maculatus, mate multiply even though association with males and copulations carry costs, such as injury to the genital tract. Multiple mating (polyandry) may, however, offset these costs through the acquisition of food and water, two material benefits hypothesized to be obtained from the large ejaculates produced by males. The material benefits hypothesis can be tested by increasing female access to nutrients and water, with the prediction that female mating frequency will decrease as copulation is no longer required to derive these materials. Females were given water, 5% sugar–water or baker’s yeast, and were compared with females deprived of these. We presented females with virgin males daily for 8 days and recorded female mating frequency, survivorship, and fecundity. Females provided with water and sugar–water decreased mating frequency. Thus, water, rather than nutrients in the ejaculate, appears to be important to females of this species. In addition, both life span and fecundity were extended for females in the sugar–water and water treatments. Since water is scarce in the arid environment in which this species is found, we conclude that polyandry provides material benefits to females that may offset some of the costs of associating with males.     

Framing of Geoengineering Affects Support for Climate Change Mitigation

The growing recognition that climate change mitigation alone will be inadequate has led scientists and policymakers to discuss climate geoengineering. An experiment with a US sample found, contrary to previous research, that reading about geoengineering did not reduce conservatives’ skepticism about the existence of anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, depending on how it is framed, geoengineering can reduce support for mitigation among both conservatives and non-conservatives. When geoengineering is framed as a major solution, people worry less about climate change, leading to reduced mitigation support. When framed as disastrous, people perceived geoengineering as riskier, also leading to a decrease in mitigation support. A more moderate framing of geoengineering as a partial solution is less susceptible to moral hazard effects. Overall, results suggest that geoengineering will not lessen political polarization over anthropogenic climate change, and could undercut support for mitigation efforts. Instead, framing geoengineering as a small piece to solving a big puzzle seems to be the best strategy to weaken this potential moral hazard.     

Dynamics of the Mite Communities (Acari: Parasitiformes) in Nests of the Parus major

The dynamics of nest-dwelling mites from the nests of the great tit in the protected area of Kamchia Mountain in Northeastern Bulgaria was investigated. The mite fauna inhabiting the nests of great tit differs significantly in terms of the degree of infestation, species richness, abundance and structure of communities in study years. There are statistically significant differences in the specimens’ number between 2014 and the other years 2012, 2013 and 2015. The mite species such as Dermanyssus gallinae, Androlaelaps casalis and Ornithonyssus sylviarum demonstrated significant changes in the abundance over the study years. A relation between the abundance of a species and the species diversity in the nests was not registered. Comparison of the annual dynamics of mites in the nests of great tit and the nests of semi-collared flycatcher for the same period of time and for the same environment, showed similarities—a significant fluctuation in the abundance of mites over the years and differences—in the species richness. Regarding the structure of the communities, both similarities and differences were recorded.

     

The Effect of Vaccinium vitis-idaea on Properties of Mountain-Meadow Soil under Alpine Lichen Heath

Russian Journal of Ecology - Abstract—The study of the effect of mycorrhiza symbiosis on the transformation of carbon and nitrogen compounds in soils is important in view of the necessity to...     

Origin of major ions in monthly rainfall events at the Bamenda Highlands, North West Cameroon

Rainwater characteristics can reveal emissions from various anthropogenic and natural sources into the atmosphere. The physico-chemical characteristics of 44 monthly rainfall events （collected between January and December 2012） from 4 weather stations （Bamenda, Ndop plain, Ndawara and Kumbo） in the Bamenda Highlands （BH） were investigated. The purpose was to determine the sources of chemical species, their seasonal inputs and suitability of the rainwater for drinking. The mean pH of 5 indicated the slightly acidic nature of the rainwater. Average total dissolved solids （TDS） were low （6.7 mg/L）, characteristic of unpolluted atmospheric moisture/air. Major ion concentrations （mg/L） were low and in the order K＋ 〉 Ca2＋ 〉 Mg2~ 〉 Na＋ for cations and NO3 〉〉 HCO3 〉 SO] 〉 CI- 〉 PO3- 〉 F- for anions. The average rainwater in the area was mixed Ca-Mg-SO4-CI water type. The CI-/Na＋ ratio （1.04） was comparable to that of seawater （1.16）, an indication that N a＋ and CI originated mainly from marine （Atlantic Ocean） aerosols. High enrichments of Ca2＋, Mg2＋ and SO2- to Na＋ ratios relative to seawater ratios （constituting 44% of the total ions） demonstrated their terrigenous origin, mainly from Saharan and Sahelian arid dusts. The K＋/Na＋ ratio （2.24）, which was similar to tropical vegetation ash （2.38）, and NO3 was essentially from biomass burning. Light （〈 100 mm） pre-monsoon and post-monsoon convective rains were enriched in major ions than the heavy （〉 100 mm） monsoon rains, indicating a high contribution of major ions during the low convective showers. Despite the acidic nature, the TDS and major ion concentrations classified the rainwater as potable based on the WHO guidelines.     

低温等离子体与絮凝剂处理印染废水的协同效应

采用低温等离子体和絮凝剂协同处理印染废水.结果表明,染料废水脱色率和COD去除率随输入电压增大和放电时间延长而增加;电极间距、废水初始浓度、通入空气流量等因素对印染废水处理效果也有很大影响;气相中放电效果优于液相中放电,阳极电极在液面以上8mm左右时放电效果最好,在其他条件不变情况下随废水初始浓度和通入空气流量增大废水脱色和COD脱除率先增大再减小,有一最佳峰值.印染废水先经过等离子体处理后再加入絮凝剂处理效果优于先加絮凝剂后放电、仅有等离子体放电的过程.在本实验中初始浓度200mg/L(CODCr初始值572)印染废水在外加电压40kV、放电时间20min、电极间距8mm、通入空气流量16L/h条件下,与絮凝剂PAC相互协同作用可达到96%脱色率、63%COD去除率.     

Using long-term data for a reintroduced population to empirically estimate future consequences of inbreeding

Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F ) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically N_e/N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331–1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887–1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty.     

Quantifying the squeezing or stretching of fisheries as they adapt to displacement by marine reserves

The designation of no‐take marine reserves involves social and economic concerns due to the resulting displacement of fishing effort, when fishing rights are removed from those who traditionally fished within an area. Displacement can influence the functioning of the fishery and success of the reserve, yet levels of displacement are seldom quantified after reserve implementation and very rarely before that. We devised a simple analytical framework based on set theory to facilitate reserve placement. Implementation of the framework requires maps of fishing grounds, fishing effort, or catch per unit effort for at least 2 years. The framework quantifies the level of conflict that a reserve designation might cause in the fishing sector due to displacement and the opportunities to offset the conflict through fisher spatial mobility (i.e., ability of fishers to fish elsewhere). We also considered how the outputs of the framework can be used to identify targeted management interventions for each fishery. We applied the method in Honduras, where the largest marine protected area in Central America is being placed, for which spatial data on fishing effort were available for 6 fisheries over 3 years. The proposed closure had a greater negative impact on the shrimp and lobster scuba fisheries, which concentrated respectively 28% and 18% of their effort inside the reserve. These fisheries could not accommodate the displacement within existing fishing grounds. Both would be forced to stretch into new fishing grounds, which are available but are of unknown quality. These stakeholders will likely require compensation to offset costly exploratory fishing or to travel to fishing grounds farther away from port.