Analysing the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrology models

Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects) and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock.     

Analysis of pollutant levels in central Hong Kong applying neural network method with particle swarm optimization

Air pollution has emerged as an imminent issue in modernsociety. Prediction of pollutant levels is an importantresearch topic in atmospheric environment today. For fulfillingsuch prediction, the use of neural network (NN), and inparticular the multi-layer perceptrons, has presented to be acost-effective technique superior to traditional statisticalmethods. But their training, usually with back-propagation (BP)algorithm or other gradient algorithms, is often with certaindrawbacks, such as: 1) very slow convergence, and 2) easilygetting stuck in a local minimum. In this paper, a newlydeveloped method, particle swarm optimization (PSO) model, isadopted to train perceptrons, to predict pollutant levels, andas a result, a PSO-based neural network approach is presented. The approach is demonstrated to be feasible and effective bypredicting some real air-quality problems.     

Application of cryofocusing hydride generation and atomic fluorescence detection for dissolved mercury species determination in natural water samples

The concentration levels of mercury (Hg) species in natural water samples are usually low. Consequently, accurate analysis with low detection limits is still a major problem. In this work, a method was applied for the simultaneous direct determination of dissolved mercury species in water samples by on-line hydride generation (HG), cryogenic trapping (CT), gas chromatography (GC) and detection by atomic fluorescence spectrometry (AFS). The suitability of the method for real samples with different organic matter and chloride contents was evaluated by recovery experiments in synthetic and natural spiked water samples. The HG method was compared with other current available methods for mercury analysis with respect to the different fraction of mercury analysed, i.e. 'reactive', 'reducible' or total. HG derivatization and SnCl2 reduction (with and without previous oxidation with BrCl) were applied to synthetic and natural (spiked and non-spiked) water samples. The influence of chloride and dissolved organic matter concentrations was studied. The results suggest that the HG procedure is suitable for the simultaneous determination of Hg2+ and MeHg+ in surface water samples. Inorganic mercury analysed by HG (i.e. reducible) is close to the total inorganic mercury.     

Design of National Groundwater Quality Monitoring Network in Egypt

In the Nile Valley and Delta the protection of groundwater resources is high priority environmental concern. Many groundwater quality problems are already dispersed and may be widespread and frequent in occurrence. Examples include problems associated with the extensive application of chemical fertilizers in agricultural specially in the new reclaimed areas, leaks in sewers, septic tanks, the aggregate effects of many different points source pollution in urban areas and natural, geologically related water quality problems. A national groundwater quality monitoring has been designed and implemented based on the stepwise procedure. The national groundwater quality monitoring network is used to quantify the quality changes in long run, either caused by pollution activities or by salt water intrusion and to describe the overall current groundwater quality status on a national scale of the main aquifers. The monitoring tools and methodologies developed in this research can be used to assure protection of public health and determine the sustainability of groundwater in various purposes. This national monitoring network plays important roles for decision makers in developing the groundwater resources management plans in different aquifers systems in Egypt.     

超临界二氧化碳萃取－GC／MS测定土壤中的多环芳烃

本文开发了一种采用超临界二氧化碳萃取土壤中多环芳烃、不须经过纯化步骤，直接可用于ＧＣ／ＭＳ分析的简便、高效的方法。本实验中超临界革取的流体是二氧化碳，改善剂是５％的二氯甲烷／甲醇，萃取温度为１２０℃、压力为３４ＭＰａ。ＧＣ／ＭＳ分析时除了采用外标外，还加入了６种同位素ＰＡＨｓ内标以校正各段ＰＡＨｓ的响应因子。采用本方法成功地测定了我国未开垦森林土壤中的ＰＡＨｓ。     

有关有限边界岸边排放稳态二维混合模式的几个问题的探讨

针对目前我国环境影响评价领域普遍采用的有限边界岸边排放稳态二维混合模式的局限性和不精确性，本文对由河流二维稳态水质模型的基本方程推求出的有限边界岸边排放的二维稳态混合模式的解析解的各项进行分析比较。同时针对费休的混合长度公式进行了计算比较。     

Tree species in relation to soil moisture regime in northwestern Ontario,Canada

Selected data on site, vegetation cover, and soil, including soil moisture regime (SMR), were collected from 2 167 field plots in northwestern Ontario, Canada. SMR provides an estimate of an averaged, annualized soil moisture supply throughout a complete vegetation cycle. SMR is based upon a relative scale that subjectively ranks sites from , 0, and 1 through 9 along a soil moisture continuum which relates to a dry to wet gradient. SMR may be generally correlated to tree growth, stand composition, degree of competition, nutrient availability and overall site quality.This paper reports on relationships between SMR and major tree species. Results highlight relationships between SMR class and the broad ecological ranges of several tree species. In northwestern Ontario, the determination of SMR can help resource managers to better understand the ecology of boreal sites.     

The efficacy of protoporphyrin as a predictive biomarker for lead exposure in canvasback ducks: Effect of sample storage time

We used 363 blood samples collected from wild canvasback dueks (Aythya valisineria) at Catahoula Lake, Louisiana, U.S.A. to evaluate the effect of sample storage time on the efficacy of erythrocytic protoporphyrin as an indicator of lead exposure. The protoporphyrin concentration of each sample was determined by hematofluorometry within 5 min of blood collection and after refrigeration at 4 °C for 24 and 48 h. All samples were analyzed for lead by atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Based on a blood lead concentration of 0.2 ppm wet weight as positive evidence for lead exposure, the protoporphyrin technique resulted in overall error rates of 29%, 20%, and 19% and false negative error rates of 47%, 29% and 25% when hematofluorometric determinations were made on blood at 5 min, 24 h, and 48 h, respectively. False positive error rates were less than 10% for all three measurement times. The accuracy of the 24-h erythrocytic protoporphyrin classification of blood samples as positive or negative for lead exposure was significantly greater than the 5-min classification, but no improvement in accuracy was gained when samples were tested at 48 h. The false negative errors were probably due, at least in part, to the lag time between lead exposure and the increase of blood protoporphyrin concentrations. False negatives resulted in an underestimation of the true number of canvasbacks exposed to lead, indicating that hematofluorometry provides a conservative estimate of lead exposure.The U.S. Government's right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty-free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledgedDeceased     

Cadmium and zinc source assessment in the Sepetiba Bay and basin region

Industrial and weathering inputs of Cd and Zn to the Sepetiba Bay and basin were assessed, based on production parameters obtained from local environment and industry authorities, and literature data. The results are compared with similar evaluations from other coastal regions and field data obtained in measuring Zn and Cd transport by rivers, direct run-off and atmospheric deposition in the region. Cadmium and zinc inputs to the bay increased by three orders of magnitude relative to pre-industrial fluxes and presently reach up to 1.6 and 180 tonnes per year for Cd and Zn, respectively, which represents a large input-to-area ratio, and explains the high concentration of these metals previously reported in the estuarine biota and sediments of Sepetiba Bay. Industrial activities, mainly metallurgical and chemical, comprise 94% and 84% of the total Cd and Zn inputs to the Bay. This figure identifies the point sources as being responsible for the environmental contamination and for regional poisoning risks.     

Scenario Analysis for the San Pedro River, Analyzing Hydrological Consequences of a Future Environment

Studies of future management and policy options based on different assumptions provide a mechanism to examine possible outcomes and especially their likely benefits and consequences. The San Pedro River in Arizona and Sonora, Mexico is an area that has undergone rapid changes in land use and cover, and subsequently is facing keen environmental crises related to water resources. It is the location of a number of studies that have dealt with change analysis, watershed condition, and most recently, alternative futures analysis. The previous work has dealt primarily with resources of habitat, visual quality, and groundwater related to urban development patterns and preferences. In the present study, previously defined future scenarios, in the form of land-use/land-cover grids, were examined relative to their impact on surface-water conditions (e.g., surface runoff and sediment yield). These hydrological outputs were estimated for the baseline year of 2000 and predicted twenty years in the future as a demonstration of how new geographic information system-based hydrologic modeling tools can be used to evaluate the spatial impacts of urban growth patterns on surface-water hydrology.