Modelling and assessment of South African elephant Loxodonta africana population persistence

The use of a quantitative population growth model to investigate the persistence of South African elephant populations is explored. The model provides quantitative assessments of population persistence and confidence intervals for estimated parameters based purely on population size estimates. The analysis supports the view that most of the larger populations in the region are secure. This view is further supported by a lack of density dependent effects in most of the recovering populations and the high population rates of increase observed. This predominantly positive prognosis is in contrast with that emerging from most of the rest of the African continent where the populations are under greater threat because of habitat restriction and direct human conflict. This preliminary assessment of elephant population persistence suggests that “viable” populations may lie between 400 and 6000 individuals. Although not inconsistent with information-greedy genetic and demographic models, the relationship between population growth versus genetic and demographic models should be further investigated. The implementation of a metapopulation management strategy towards these smaller populations is advocated. In addition, as all of the populations included in this analysis have been afforded some degree of protection since the 1920s, continued protection would be a prerequisite for their continued survival.     

METHODOLOGIES FOR CALIBRATION AND PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF A WATERSHED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.     

THE VULNERABILITY OF WETLANDS TO CLIMATE CHANGE: A HYDROLOGIC LANDSCAPE PERSPECTIVE1

ABSTRACT: The vulnerability of wetlands to changes in climate depends on their position within hydrologic landscapes. Hydrologic landscapes are defined by the flow characteristics of ground water and surface water and by the interaction of atmospheric water, surface water, and ground water for any given locality or region. Six general hydrologic landscapes are defined; mountainous, plateau and high plain, broad basins of interior drainage, riverine, flat coastal, and hummocky glacial and dune. Assessment of these landscapes indicate that the vulnerability of all wetlands to climate change fall between two extremes: those dependent primarily on precipitation for their water supply are highly vulnerable, and those dependent primarily on discharge from regional ground water flow systems are the least vulnerable, because of the great buffering capacity of large ground water flow systems to climate change.     

Reverse logistics in the Brazilian construction industry

In Brazil most Construction and Demolition Waste (C&D waste) is not recycled. This situation is expected to change significantly, since new federal regulations oblige municipalities to create and implement sustainable C&D waste management plans which assign an important role to recycling activities. The recycling organizational network and its flows and components are fundamental to C&D waste recycling feasibility. Organizational networks, flows and components involve reverse logistics. The aim of this work is to introduce the concepts of reverse logistics and reverse distribution channel networks and to study the Brazilian C&D waste case.     

喀斯特地区长期草地利用制度对群落稳定性的影响

草地利用方式和混播组合对群落特性的长期影响不同。利用方式对白三叶(Trifolium repens)盖度没有显著影响,而混播组合与利用方式的交互作用影响显著。白三叶在宿营处理和刈割为主利用下的与鸭茅(Dactylis glomerata)混播中的比例最低,而在刈割利用和宿营处理的多年生黑麦草(Lolium perenne)组合中的盖度最高。混播组合对禾本科组分盖度影响不显著,但利用方式和交互作用有显著的作用,长期放牧绵羊的混播草地多年生黑麦草很少。混播组合对杂草密度、盖度和多样性指数的影响不明显,而利用方式和交互作用显著地影响杂草盖度和多样性指数。放牧草地中的杂草密度高于刈割草地的,其中放牧利用的白三叶/多年生黑麦草草地最高。放牧牛的草地杂草密度较少,而放牧绵羊的草地杂草较多。白三叶、禾本科牧草以及杂草的密度都显著地受混播组合、利用方式及其交互作用的影响,说明密度是一个敏感的指标。     

Respiration and lipid content of the Arctic copepod<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Calanus hyperboreus</Emphasis> overwintering 1 m above the seafloor at 2,300 m water depth in the Fram Strait

In August 2000 high concentrations of the dominant herbivorous copepod Calanus hyperboreus were detected in the Arctic Fram Strait, west of Spitsbergen, 1 m above the seafloor at 2,290 m water depth. Individuals from that layer were sampled by a hyper-benthic net attached to the frame of an epi-benthic sledge. For comparison, the vertical distribution of C. hyperboreus in the water column was studied simultaneously by a multiple opening/closing net haul from 2,250 m depth to the surface. Maximum abundance was found close to the surface with 6.6 and 10.0 ind. m^?3 at 0–50 m and 50–100 m depth, respectively. However, the major fraction of the population (>40%) occurred between 1,000 and 1,500 m depth. In the deepest layer (2,000–2,250 m) abundance measured 2.2 ind. m^?3 and was twice as high as between 100 and 1,000 m depth. In comparison to individuals from surface waters, copepods from the hyper-benthic layer were torpid and did not react to mechanical stimuli. Stage CV copepodids and females from the deep sample contained 4–10% less lipid and showed significantly reduced respiration rates of 0.24 and 0.26 ml O₂ h^?1 g^?1 dry mass (DM) as compared to surface samples (0.49 and 0.43 ml O₂ h^?1 g^?1 DM). All these observations indicate that the hyper-benthic part of the population had already started a dormant overwintering phase at great depth. Based on the lipid deposits and energy demands, the potential maximum duration of the non-feeding dormant phase was estimated at 76–110 days for females and at 98–137 days for CV copepodids, depending on what indispensable minimum lipid content was assumed. In any case, the estimated times could not meet the necessary requirements for a starvation period of >6 months until the next phytoplankton bloom in the following spring. The ecological implications of these results are discussed with respect to the life cycle and eco-physiological adaptations of C. hyperboreus to its high-Arctic habitat.     

水和废水中含油水样的成套采集技术研究──一种新型适用的含油水样采样器

在查阅大量文献的基础上,分析总结了现有采样器的优缺点,并依据采集有代表性含油水样的理论要求,设计制作了一种独具特色而又科学适用的新型合油水样采样器。本采样器可用于采集含油水样和其它水样。     

Rechts- und naturwissenschaftliche Kooperation im Umweltrecht am Beispiel des Chemikalien- und Naturschutzrechts

Der Beitrag ist aus einem Vortrag hervorgegangen, den der Verfasser am 23. 9. 2009 bei der Jahrestagung der Gesellschaft Deutscher Chemiker, Fachgruppe Umweltchemie und ?kotoxikologie, in Trier gehalten hat. Wenngleich gewichtige Sachgründe für eine fachübergreifende rechts- und naturwissenschaftliche Kooperation sprechen, so stellt sie doch in der gegenw?rtigen universit?ren Forschungslandschaft eher eine Rarit?t dar. Zu den Ursachen hierfür geh?rt, dass eine derartige Kooperation mit erheblichen Schwierigkeiten verbunden ist, die aus der zunehmenden Spezialisierung der Wissenschaft und der damit einhergehenden Herausbildung divergierender F?cherkulturen resultieren. Hinzu kommt, dass die aktuelle Drittmittelf?rderung, die nicht zuletzt auf die Initiierung und Intensivierung von Interdisziplinarit?t zielt, auf Rechtswissenschaftler nur eine vergleichsweise geringe Anreizwirkung ausübt. Doch mehren sich die Anzeichen dafür, dass sich hier alsbald ein Wandel vollzieht. Das Chemikalienrecht bietet jedenfalls (ebenso wie beispielsweise das Naturschutzrecht) etliche Ansatzpunkte für sachlich ertragreiches kooperatives Zusammenwirken von Rechts- und Naturwissenschaftlern.