Regional Decline of an Iconic Amphibian Associated with Elevation,Land‐Use Change,and Invasive Species

Abstract: Ecological theory predicts that species with restricted geographic ranges will have the highest probability of extinction, but species with extensive distributions and high population densities can also exhibit widespread population losses. In the western United States populations of northern leopard frogs (Lithobates pipiens)—historically one of the most widespread frogs in North America—have declined dramatically in abundance and geographic distribution. To assess the status of leopard frogs in Colorado and evaluate causes of decline, we coupled statewide surveys of 196 historically occupied sites with intensive sampling of 274 wetlands stratified by land use. We used an information‐theoretic approach to evaluate the contributions of factors at multiple spatial extents in explaining the contemporary distribution of leopard frogs. Our results indicate leopard frogs have declined in Colorado, but this decline was regionally variable. The lowest proportion of occupied wetlands occurred in eastern Colorado (2–28%), coincident with urban development and colonization by non‐native bullfrogs (Lithobates catesbeianus). Variables at several spatial extents explained observed leopard frog distributional patterns. In low‐elevation wetlands introduced fishes, bullfrogs, and urbanization or suburbanization associated negatively with leopard frog occurrence, whereas wetland area was positively associated with occurrence. Leopard frogs were more abundant and widespread west of the Continental Divide, where urban development and bullfrog abundance were low. Although the pathogenic chytrid Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) was not selected in our best‐supported models, the nearly complete extirpation of leopard frogs from montane wetlands could reflect the individual or interactive effects of Bd and climate patterns. Our results highlight the importance of considering multiple, competing hypotheses to explain species declines, particularly when implicated factors operate at different spatial extents.     

Securing the Demographic and Genetic Future of Tuatara through Assisted Colonization

Abstract: Climate change poses a particular threat to species with fragmented distributions and little or no capacity to migrate. Assisted colonization, moving species into regions where they have not previously occurred, aims to establish populations where they are expected to survive as climatic envelopes shift. However, adaptation to the source environment may affect whether species successfully establish in new regions. Assisted colonization has spurred debate among conservation biologists and ecologists over whether the potential benefits to the threatened species outweigh the potential disruption to recipient communities. In our opinion, the debate has been distracted by controversial examples, rather than cases where assisted colonization may be a viable strategy. We present a strategic plan for the assisted migration of tuatara (Sphenodon punctatus), an endemic New Zealand reptile. The plan includes use of extant populations as reference points for comparisons with assisted‐colonization populations with respect to demography, phenotypic plasticity, and phenology; optimization of genetic variation; research to fill knowledge gaps; consideration of host and recipient communities; and inclusion of stakeholders in the planning stage. When strategically planned and monitored, assisted colonization could meet conservation and research goals and ultimately result in the establishment of long‐term sustainable populations capable of persisting during rapid changes in climate.     

Measuring and Monitoring Illegal Use of Natural Resources

Abstract: Illegal use of natural resources is a threat to biodiversity globally, but research on illegal activities has methodological challenges. We examined 100 studies that empirically identify targeted resources, techniques used to procure resources illegally, locations of illegal activities, characteristics of typical violators, incentives driving illegal use of resources, magnitude of the problem of illegal use (e.g., quantities used), or frequency of illegal activity. We based our evaluation of the methods used in these studies on their ability to provide these empirical data, relative labor demands, training and technology requirements, and levels of uncontrollable bias. We evaluated eight different methods: law‐enforcement records, indirect observation, self‐reporting, direct observation, direct questioning, randomized response technique (a survey method designed to improve accuracy of responses to sensitive questions), forensics, and modeling. Different situations favored different methods, each with distinct advantages and limitations. Six context‐specific factors—location of resource use (in situ vs. ex situ), budget, technology and training capacity, ease of detection of illegal activity, scope of illegal activity (limited vs. widespread), and researchers’ willingness to accept bias in results—help narrow the choice of methods. Several methodological concerns applied to any study of illegal resource use: regular monitoring can detect trends; modeling can incorporate sampling error and data uncertainties; researchers must manage levels of bias that vary between methods; triangulation of results from multiple methods can improve accuracy. No method is a panacea, but a combination of techniques can help address the lack of data on illegal activity. Researchers empirically compared results from different methods in only four studies, and no one has compared more than two methods simultaneously. Conservation would benefit from more research focused on: methods comparisons that include cost effectiveness, time efficiency, and statistical rigor; unique applications of the eight techniques currently in use; and testing of new methods.     

Possible Effects of Acidic Deposition on a Rocky Mountain Population of the Tiger Salamander Ambystoma tigrtinum

Para investigar los posibles efectos biológicos de lluvia ácaida en el oeste de los Estados Unidos, se llevaron a cabo censos poblacionales de salamandras y experimentos deevaluación de respuesta a varias dosijicaciones en una cuenca subalpina en las Montañas Rocosas del Estado de Colorado. Una población adulta de salamundras tigre (Ambystoma tigrinum nebulosum) tuvo un descenso de 65% ensiete años, mientras el reclutamiento de larvas disminuyó en general salvo en el ultimo año de este perí'odo. Huatos de A. tigrinum tuvieron un pH de 5.6(LD-50), valor que se encuentra en el rango usual para este luagar medido durante el período de desahielo. Aunque el descenso de A. tigrinurn en esta cuenca puede deberse a una fluctuación natural la evidencia disponible es consistente con la hipótesis de que su causa se debe a las deposiciones por lluvia ácida Por. lo tanto, el descenso de A. tigrinurn en la cuenca puede ser la primera indicación de daño biológico de los llivia acida en el oeste de los Estados Unidos.     

The Role of Food Aid in Drought and Recovery: Oxfam's North Turkana (Kenya) Drought Relief Programme, 1992–94

Regional droughts carry the seeds of catastrophe: the immediate risk is famine; the long-term risk is destitution. Preventing both situations is an appropriate, if not essential, goal for relief agencies. In the past, responses to hunger in Turkana District (north-west Kenya) have taken the form of traditional feeding programmes. A better understanding of the boom/bust cycles in pastoralist systems has, however, produced new relief strategies. A central tenet of these strategies is the acceptance that relief aid should assume two roles: humanitarian—to overcome food deficits—and economic—to overcome 'income' deficits. Arguments in favour of a broader role for food aid are tested with a case study of a drought relief programme in north Turkana between 1992–1994. Field studies confirmed that when food aid is integrated as an asset into household resources, it can strengthen economic recovery. Ultimately, the extent to which relief operations are able to protect both people's lives and their livelihoods is the key to more sustainable development in drought-prone areas.     

Implementing Ecosystem Management in Public Agencies: Lessons from the U.S. Bureau of Land Management and the Forest Service

Abstract:  Ecosystem management was formally adopted over a decade ago by many U.S. natural resource agencies, including the Forest Service and the Bureau of Land Management. This approach calls for management based on stakeholder collaboration; interagency cooperation; integration of scientific, social, and economic information; preservation of ecological processes; and adaptive management. Results of previous studies indicate differences in the extent to which particular components of ecosystem management would be implemented within the U.S. Forest Service and the Bureau of Land Management and suggest a number of barriers thought to impede implementation. Drawing on survey and interview data from agency personnel and stakeholders, we compared levels of ecosystem-management implementation in the Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management and identified the most important barriers to implementation. Agency personnel perceived similarly high levels of implementation on many ecosystem-management components, whereas stakeholders perceived lower levels. Agencies were most challenged by implementation of preservation of ecological processes, adaptive management, and integration of social and economic information, whereas the most significant barriers to implementation were political, cultural, and legal.     

Ability of Matrix Models to Explain the Past and Predict the Future of Plant Populations

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage‐based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts’ 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data‐collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk‐averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. Habilidad de los Modelos Matriciales para Explicar el Pasado y Predecir el Futuro de las Poblaciones de Plantas