Reliability of Absolute and Relative Predictions of Population Persistence Based on Time Series

Abstract:  Conventional population viability analysis (PVA) is often impractical because data are scarce for many threatened species. For this reason, simple count-based models are being advocated. The simplest of these models requires nothing more than a time series of abundance estimates, from which variance and autocorrelation in growth rate are estimated and predictions of population persistence are generated. What remains unclear, however, is how many years of data are needed to generate reliable estimates of these parameters and hence reliable predictions of persistence. By analyzing published and simulated time series, we show that several decades of data are needed. Predictions based on short time series were very unreliable mainly because limited data yielded biased, unreliable estimates of variance in growth rate, especially when growth rate was strongly autocorrelated. More optimistically, our results suggest that count-based PVA is sometimes useful for relative risk assessment (i.e., for ranking populations by extinction risk), even when time series are only a decade long. However, some conditions consistently lead to backward rankings. We explored the limited conditions under which simple count-based PVA may be useful for relative risk assessment.     

A review of adaptive cluster sampling: 1990–2003

Adaptive cluster sampling (ACS) is an adaptive sampling scheme which operates under the rule that when the observed value of an initially selected sampling unit satisfies some condition of interest, C, other additional units in some pre-defined accompanying neighborhood are also added to the sample. In turn, if any of these additional units satisfy C, then their corresponding unit neighborhoods are added to the sample as well, and so on. This process stops when no additional units satisfying C are encountered. This paper will provide a review of the major developments and issues in ACS since its introduction by Thompson (1990) [Journal of the American Statistical Association, 85, 1050–1059].     

Conservation Biology and Real-World Conservation

Abstract:  In the 20 years since Conservation Biology was launched with the aim of disseminating scientific knowledge to help conserve biodiversity and the natural world, our discipline has hugely influenced the practice of conservation. But we have had less impact outside the profession itself, and we have not transformed that practice into an enterprise large enough to achieve our conservation goals. As we look to the next 20 years, we need to become more relevant and important to the societies in which we live. To do so, the discipline of conservation biology must generate answers even when full scientific knowledge is lacking, structure scientific research around polices and debates that influence what we value as conservationists, go beyond the certitude of the biological sciences into the more contextual debates of the social sciences, engage scientifically with human-dominated landscapes, and address the question of how conservation can contribute to the improvement of human livelihoods and the quality of human life.     

Estimation of Core Terrestrial Habitat for Stream-Breeding Salamanders and Delineation of Riparian Buffers for Protection of Biodiversity

Abstract:  Many species of wildlife depend on riparian habitats for various life-history functions (e.g., breeding, foraging, overwintering). Although this unique habitat is critical for many species, delineations of riparian zones and buffers for various taxa are lacking. Typically when buffer zones are determined to mitigate edge effects, they are based on criteria that protect aquatic resources alone and do not consider impacts to wildlife and other terrestrial resources. Using two different survey methods (area-constrained daytime searches and nighttime visual encounter searches), we estimated core terrestrial habitat and buffer widths for stream-breeding salamanders in southern Appalachian streams from May to August 2004. A core terrestrial habitat of 27.0 m encompassed 95% of the salamander assemblage (four species of stream plethodontids), and an additional 50 m (to buffer edge effects) yielded a total buffer of 77.0 m. When each species of the assemblage was analyzed separately, the maximum core terrestrial habitat needed for the Blue Ridge two-lined salamander ( Eurycea wilderae ), a dominant member and the farthest-ranging species from the stream, was 42.6 m. Thus, we recommend an overall buffer width of 92.6 m in southern Appalachian streams. To protect stream amphibians and other wildlife dependent on riparian areas, land managers and policy makers must consider conserving more than aquatic resources alone. Developing core terrestrial habitat estimates and buffer zone widths for wildlife populations is a critical first step in the conservation of many semiaquatic organisms and protecting biodiversity.     

Importance of Reserve Size and Landscape Context to Urban Bird Conservation

Abstract:  We tested whether reserve size, landscape surrounding the reserve, and their interaction affect forest songbirds in the metropolitan area of Seattle, Washington (U.S.A.), by studying 29 reserves of varying size (small, medium, large) and surrounding urbanization intensity (urban, suburban, exurban). Larger reserves contained richer and less even bird communities than smaller reserves. These size effects disappeared when we removed the positive correlation of shrub diversity with reserve size, suggesting that greater habitat diversity in large reserves supported additional species, some of which were rare. Standardizing the number of individuals detected among all reserve size classes reversed the effect of size on richness in exurban landscapes and reduced the magnitude of the effect in suburban or urban landscapes. The latter change suggested that richness increased with reserve size in most landscapes because larger areas also supported larger samples from the regional bird species pool. Most bird species associated with native forest habitat (native forest species) and with human activity (synanthropic species) were present in reserves larger than 42 ha and surrounded by >40% urban land cover, respectively. Thus, we recommend these thresholds as means for conserving the composition of native bird communities in this mostly forested region. Native forest species were least abundant and synanthropic species most abundant in urban landscapes, where exotic ground and shrub vegetation was most common. Therefore, control of exotic vegetation may benefit native songbird populations. Bird nests in shrubs were most dense in medium (suburban) and large reserves (urban) and tended to be most successful in medium (suburban) and large reserves (exurban), potentially supplying another mechanism by which reserve size increased retention of native forest species.