growing pains: a conceptual framework for considering integrated assessments

Policy concerns related to the environment have grown in the past decadesfrom relatively local and well-defined problems to increasingly complex andglobal issues. With this has grown the need to develop the capacity tointegrate, reconcile, organize, and communicate knowledge across scientificdisciplines, as well as to make this knowledge available and useful for policy-makers. One response to this has been the growing field ofIntegrated Assessment (IA). Our goal in this paper is to reflect on the purpose and valueof IA in principle. We propose a conceptual framework within whichindividual IA studies, and the practice of IA as a whole, can be placed andevaluated. The framework addresses both the integrative nature of IAs andtheir policy usefulness, including a self-awareness of their role and capabilities. We illustrate several stages in the evolution of integrated assessments: fromlinear to more complex chains of analysis, from non-adaptive to perfectly-adaptive to realistically-adaptive agents, from simplistic to sophisticated to pluralistic consideration of alternative underlying development paths, from strictly quantitative to quantitative and qualitative analyses, from science-driven to policy-driven, and from analyses that dictate to users to those that involvethose users in the actual assessment process. By so doing, we argue for botha richer form and process of IA. Ultimately, we feel that it may also benecessary to reconsider the framing of the questions that IAs have been askedto address, perhaps leading to the consideration of the use of other forms of mandated science.     

Drawing the Battle Lines: Tracing the “Science War” in the Construction of the Chloroform and Human Health Risks Debate

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) and the Chlorine Chemistry Council, the Chemical Manufacturers Association, and others have been embroiled in a legal challenge concerning the US EPA's “reversal” regarding the scientific assessment of chloroform's carcinogenicity. This issue arose during the US EPA's November 1998 promulgation of a Maximum Contaminant Level Goal for chloroform in the Stage 1 Final Rules for Disinfectants and Disinfection Byproducts in drinking water. In this paper we adopt a claimsmaking approach: to trace the development and outcome of the chloroform court challenge in the USA, to examine the construction of scientific knowledge claims concerning chloroform risk assessments, and to investigate how different interpretations of scientific uncertainties regarding the evidence are contested when such uncertainties are brought into a regulatory and judicial arena. This “science war” (Chlorine Chemistry Council and others v. US EPA and others) took place in the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. The scientific “authority” in the construction of scientific claims in this dispute is based on the International Life Sciences Institute expert panel report on chloroform. Examining these science wars is important because they signal critical shifts in science policy agendas. The regulatory outcome of the chloroform science war in the United States can have profound implications for the construction and acceptance of scientific claims regarding drinking water in other jurisdictions (e.g., Canada). In this challenge, we argue that the actors involved in the dispute constructed “boundaries” around accepted and credible scientific claims.     

Demonstration as a Means to Translate Conservation Science into Practice

Abstract:  To be relevant to societal interests and needs, conservation science must explicitly lend itself to solving real-world problems. Failure to evaluate under field conditions how a new technology or method performs or the cost of its implementation can prevent its acceptance by end users. Demonstration, defined here as the translation of scientific understanding into metrics of performance and cost of implementation under real-world conditions, is a logical step in the challenging progression from fundamental research to application. Demonstration reduces scientific uncertainty and validates the hypothesis that a management approach is both effective and financially sustainable. Much like adaptive management, demonstration enables researchers and resource managers to avoid trial-and-error approaches and instead conduct unbiased assessment of management interventions. The participation of end users and regulators in the development and execution of demonstration projects ensures that performance measures are credible and increases the probability that successful innovations will be adopted. Four actions might better connect science to the needs of resource managers via demonstration. First, we recommend that demonstration be conducted as a formal process that documents successes and failures. Second, demonstration should be budgeted as an integral component of government agencies' science programs and executed as a partnership between researchers and managers. Third, public and private funders should increase the opportunities and incentives for academics to engage in demonstration. Fourth, social influences on adoption of new technologies and methods should be further explored. When end users can evaluate explicitly whether a new approach is likely to achieve management objectives, save money, and reduce risk under uncertainty, the professional community successfully has bridged a chasm between research and application .     

Potential Effects of the United States-Mexico Border Fence on Wildlife

Abstract:  Security infrastructure along international boundaries threatens to degrade connectivity for wildlife. To explore potential effects of a fence under construction along the U.S.–Mexico border on wildlife, we assessed movement behavior of two species with different life histories whose regional persistence may depend on transboundary movements. We used radiotelemetry to assess how vegetation and landscape structure affect flight and natal dispersal behaviors of Ferruginous Pygmy-Owls ( Glaucidium brasilianum ), and satellite telemetry, gene-flow estimates, and least-cost path models to assess movement behavior and interpopulation connectivity of desert bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis mexicana ). Flight height of Pygmy-Owls averaged only 1.4 m (SE 0.1) above ground, and only 23% of flights exceeded 4 m. Juvenile Pygmy-Owls dispersed at slower speeds, changed direction more, and had lower colonization success in landscapes with larger vegetation openings or higher levels of disturbance ( p ≤ 0.047), which suggests large vegetation gaps coupled with tall fences may limit transboundary movements. Female bighorn sheep crossed valleys up to 4.9 km wide, and microsatellite analyses indicated relatively high levels of gene flow and migration (95% CI for F_ST= 0.010–0.115, Nm = 1.9–24.8, M = 10.4–15.4) between populations divided by an 11-km valley. Models of gene flow based on regional topography and movement barriers suggested that nine populations of bighorn sheep in northwestern Sonora are linked by dispersal with those in neighboring Arizona. Disruption of transboundary movement corridors by impermeable fencing would isolate some populations on the Arizona side. Connectivity for other species with similar movement abilities and spatial distributions may be affected by border development, yet mitigation strategies could address needs of wildlife and humans.     

The relationship of organizational politics and support to work behaviors,attitudes, and stress

The purpose of this paper is to report two studies that investigated the consequences of organizational politics and organizational support on two separate samples of employees. Study 1 surveys 69 full-time employees, while Study 2's sample includes 185 part-time workers. Four major findings were observed. First, the present studies replicated prior findings concerning the relationships of politics and support to such variables as withdrawal behaviors, turnover intentions, job satisfaction and organizational commitment. In general, politics is related to negative work outcomes while support is related to positive ones. Consistent results were obtained within both the full- and part-time samples. Second, we elaborated upon previous work concerning the relationship of politics and support to job involvement. Third, we found in both samples that politics and support did predict above and beyond each other, suggesting that they should be viewed as separate constructs rather than opposite ends of a single continuum. Lastly, Study 2 extended the research on politics and support by analyzing their relationships to four work stress variables: job tension, somatic tension, general fatigue, and burnout. Each of these four variables was predicted by both politics and support. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Local Participation in Natural Resource Monitoring: a Characterization of Approaches

Abstract: The monitoring of trends in the status of species or habitats is routine in developed countries, where it is funded by the state or large nongovernmental organizations and often involves large numbers of skilled amateur volunteers. Far less monitoring of natural resources takes place in developing countries, where state agencies have small budgets, there are fewer skilled professionals or amateurs, and socioeconomic conditions prevent development of a culture of volunteerism. The resulting lack of knowledge about trends in species and habitats presents a serious challenge for detecting, understanding, and reversing declines in natural resource values. International environmental agreements require signatories undertake systematic monitoring of their natural resources, but no system exists to guide the development and expansion of monitoring schemes. To help develop such a protocol, we suggest a typology of monitoring categories, defined by their degree of local participation, ranging from no local involvement with monitoring undertaken by professional researchers to an entirely local effort with monitoring undertaken by local people. We assessed the strengths and weaknesses of each monitoring category and the potential of each to be sustainable in developed or developing countries. Locally based monitoring is particularly relevant in developing countries, where it can lead to rapid decisions to solve the key threats affecting natural resources, can empower local communities to better manage their resources, and can refine sustainable‐use strategies to improve local livelihoods. Nevertheless, we recognize that the accuracy and precision of the monitoring undertaken by local communities in different situations needs further study and field protocols need to be further developed to get the best from the unrealized potential of this approach. A challenge to conservation biologists is to identify and establish the monitoring system most relevant to a particular situation and to develop methods to integrate outputs from across the spectrum of monitoring schemes to produce wider indices of natural resources that capture the strengths of each.     

Climate Change, Elevational Range Shifts, and Bird Extinctions

Abstract:  Limitations imposed on species ranges by the climatic, ecological, and physiological effects of elevation are important determinants of extinction risk. We modeled the effects of elevational limits on the extinction risk of landbirds, 87% of all bird species. Elevational limitation of range size explained 97% of the variation in the probability of being in a World Conservation Union category of extinction risk. Our model that combined elevational ranges, four Millennium Assessment habitat-loss scenarios, and an intermediate estimate of surface warming of 2.8° C, projected a best guess of 400–550 landbird extinctions, and that approximately 2150 additional species would be at risk of extinction by 2100. For Western Hemisphere landbirds, intermediate extinction estimates based on climate-induced changes in actual distributions ranged from 1.3% (1.1° C warming) to 30.0% (6.4° C warming) of these species. Worldwide, every degree of warming projected a nonlinear increase in bird extinctions of about 100–500 species. Only 21% of the species predicted to become extinct in our scenarios are currently considered threatened with extinction. Different habitat-loss and surface-warming scenarios predicted substantially different futures for landbird species. To improve the precision of climate-induced extinction estimates, there is an urgent need for high-resolution measurements of shifts in the elevational ranges of species. Given the accelerating influence of climate change on species distributions and conservation, using elevational limits in a tested, standardized, and robust manner can improve conservation assessments of terrestrial species and will help identify species that are most vulnerable to global climate change. Our climate-induced extinction estimates are broadly similar to those of bird species at risk from other factors, but these estimates largely involve different sets of species.     

Triazine and Metolachlor Herbicide Residues in Farm Areas of the Lower Fraser Valley,British Columbia,Canada

Crop soils, ditch sediments and water flowing from several Lower Fraser River (LFR) farm areas of British Columbia, Canada, to salmon tributary streams of that river were sampled in 2004–2005 to quantify for residues of triazine [atrazine, desethylatrazine (a transformation product of atrazine), propazine, and simazine] and metolachlor (a chloroacetamide) herbicides. Average concentrations [μg kg^?1 dry weight (d.w.)] of triazine (10,110) and metolachlor (8,910) herbicides detected in crop soils at the start (May 2004, 2005) of the growing season were about 17 and 6 times, respectively, higher than those found for both herbicide groups during (June–Sept, 2004, 2005) the growing season. In contrast, mean concentrations (μg L^?1) of triazines (0.092) and metolachlor (0.014) in permanent ditches adjacent to farms were about 7 and 28 times, respectively, lower at the start than during the growing season. Both herbicide groups in ditch sediments were detected only during the growing season at concentrations averaging about 315 μg kg^?1 d.w. The risk potential of these herbicides for non-target aquatic organisms inhabiting permanent farm ditches contiguous to tributary streams of the LFR during the growing season is evaluated and discussed.