CYCLICAL INSTABILITY: A GROWING THREAT TO METAL PRODUCERS AND CONSUMERS

This article first identifies the underlying features of the supply and demand for metals responsible for market instability. These include the unresponsiveness of supply in the short term to increases in price once output approaches the limits of existing capacity, the unresponsiveness of demand in the short term to changes in price and the shifts in demand over the business cycle due to changes in income. The consequences of cyclical volatility are examined next. In some industries, market instability is reflected by frequent and sharp fluctuations in price. In others, producers set prices and keep them relatively stable. Even these industries, it is argued, suffer from cyclical volatility. The latter simply manifests itself in other ways. Finally, two developments are considered that suggest the problem of cyclical volatility may be growing more acute over time. The first concerns the willingness of metal producers, fabricators, and others to vary their inventories so that metal stocks are drawn down when consumption is relatively high and built up when consumption is down. The second development involves the trend over time in the magnitude and synchronization of business cycles in the major industrialized countries. Cet article commence d'abord par déterminer les caractéristiques de l'offre et de la demande concemant les métaux qui sont responsables de l'instabilité du marché - le manque d'élasticité de l'offre à court terme aux augmentations de prix lorsque le montant de la production approche les limites de sa capacité, le manque d'élasticité de la demande à court terme aux changements de prix et l'ajustement de la demande aux variations des revenue pendant le cycle industriel. Les conséquences de la volatilité cyclique sont examinées ensuite. Dans quelques industries, l'instabilité du marché se reflète par de fréquentes et violentes fluctuations dans les prix. Dans d'autres, les producteurs fixent les prix et les maintiennent relativement stables. Mais, même ces industries souffrent des fluctuations cycliques. Ces dernières simplement se manifestent d'autres façons. Finalement, l'article étudie deux éléments qui suggèrent que le problème des fluctuations cycliques peut devenir plus aigu avec le temps. Le premier concerne la volonté des producteurs de métaux, des transformateurs et autres d'adapter leurs inventaires de façon à ce que les stocks de métaux baissent lorsque la consommation est relativement élevée et augmentent lorsque celle-ci décroît. Le deuxième élément comprend la tendance en fonction du temps concernant l'importance et la synchronisation des cycles industriels dans les principaux pays industrialisés. Este artículo identifica primero los aspectos subyacentes en la oferta y demanda de metales que son responsables de la inestabilidad del mercado, tales como la falta de reacción de la oferta en el corto plazo al incremento de precio cuando el nivel de producción se aproxima a la capacidad límite de producción, la inelasticidad de la demanda en el corto plazo y el desplazamiento de la demanda durante el ciclo económico debido a cambios en el nivel de ingreso. Luego se examinan las consecuencias de la “volatilidad” cíclica. En algunas industrias la inestabilidad del mercado se refleja en frecuentes y bruscas fluctuaciones de precio. En otras, los productores fijan los precios y los mantienen relativamente estables. Se dice que aún en estas industrias ocurre la “volatilidad” cíclica la que se manifieste en forma distinta. Finalmente se consideran dos tendencias que sugieren que el problema de la “volatilidad” cíclica está tomándose cada vez más aguda. La primera se refiere al deséo de los productores de metales, fabricantes y otros de variar sus inventarios de manera que éstos disminuyan cuando el consumo es relativamente alto y aumenten cuando el consumo es bajo. La segunda se refiere a la tendencia que está siguiendo la magnitud y sincronización de los ciclos económicos de los principales países industrializados.     

Cognitive and motivational frameworks in U.S. research on participation: a meta-analysis of primary effects

In this paper we classify 86 published studies of participation conducted in the U.S. according to whether they are based on cognitive or motivational conceptual frameworks, then conduct a meta-analysis of 124 correlation coefficients obtained from them to determine whether distinguishing between conceptual frameworks portends differences in the findings of U.S. research on the effects of participatory processes on performance and satisfaction. Results reveal noticeable differences in the findings of participation–satisfaction research, but also indicate that these differences diminish substantially upon elimination of research based on single-source self-reports. If interpreted as evidence of percept–percept inflation, these findings are wholly consistent with those of other recent analyses. If interpreted as evidence of the greater accuracy of self-report measures of intra-psychic phenomena, they suggest that research on the relationship between participation and satisfaction has been influenced by the conceptual frameworks used to design studies and formulate conclusions. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Energy Use and Conservation in Developing Country Industries

This article compares, contrasts and analyzes energy use data in five worldwide manufacturing subsectors. It documents the differences in energy input/production output ratios among industries and among countries, and outlines areas of opportunity for implementing energy conservation measures. Special attention is given to the energy use record in developing countries and to assessing their particular problems and limitations in reducing industrial energy demand.
Cet article établit des comparaisons, fait ressortir des contrastes et présente une analyse des données sur l'utilisation de l'énergie dans cinq sous-secteurs industriels mondiaux. Il explique les différences qui existent dans le taux de rendement relatif aux entrées-sorties dans les industries et les pays. Il désigne des secteurs où peuvent s'appliquer des mesures de conservation d'énergie. Une attention toute particulière est accordée aux tendances d'utilisation de l'énergie dans les pays en développement et à revaluation des problèmes et limitations qu'ils confrontent à réduire la demande d'énergie industrille.
Este artículo analiza comparativamente la información sobre uso de energía en cinco ramas industriales. Documenta los ratios insumo/producto en varios países e indica las oportunidades para establecer medidas para la conservacón de energa. Se da especial atención a los patrones de uso de energía en los países en desarrollo y evalúa los problemas particulares y limitaciones para la reducción del uso de energía en la indústria.     

Home Range Size and Choice of Management Strategy for Lynx in Scandinavia

Annual and seasonal home ranges were calculated for 47 Eurasian lynx in four Scandinavian study sites (two in Sweden and two in Norway). The observed home ranges were the largest reported for the species, with study site averages ranging from 600 to 1400 km² for resident males and from 300 to 800 km² for resident females. When home range sizes were compared to the size of protected areas (national parks and nature reserves) in Scandinavia, it was concluded that very few protected areas contained sufficient forest to provide space for more than a few individuals. As a direct consequence of this, most lynx need to be conserved in the multiuse seminatural forest habitats that cover large areas in Scandinavia. This conservation strategy leads to a number of conflicts with some land uses (sheep and semidomestic reindeer herding, and roe deer hunters), but not all (forestry and moose harvest). Accordingly research must be aimed at understanding the ecology of these conflicts, and finding solutions.     

Detecting Extinction Risk from Climate Change by IUCN Red List Criteria

Anthropogenic climate change is a key threat to global biodiversity. To inform strategic actions aimed at conserving biodiversity as climate changes, conservation planners need early warning of the risks faced by different species. The IUCN Red List criteria for threatened species are widely acknowledged as useful risk assessment tools for informing conservation under constraints imposed by limited data. However, doubts have been expressed about the ability of the criteria to detect risks imposed by potentially slow‐acting threats such as climate change, particularly because criteria addressing rates of population decline are assessed over time scales as short as 10 years. We used spatially explicit stochastic population models and dynamic species distribution models projected to future climates to determine how long before extinction a species would become eligible for listing as threatened based on the IUCN Red List criteria. We focused on a short‐lived frog species (Assa darlingtoni) chosen specifically to represent potential weaknesses in the criteria to allow detailed consideration of the analytical issues and to develop an approach for wider application. The criteria were more sensitive to climate change than previously anticipated; lead times between initial listing in a threatened category and predicted extinction varied from 40 to 80 years, depending on data availability. We attributed this sensitivity primarily to the ensemble properties of the criteria that assess contrasting symptoms of extinction risk. Nevertheless, we recommend the robustness of the criteria warrants further investigation across species with contrasting life histories and patterns of decline. The adequacy of these lead times for early warning depends on practicalities of environmental policy and management, bureaucratic or political inertia, and the anticipated species response times to management actions. Detección del Riesgo de Extinción a partir del Cambio Climático por medio del Criterio de la Lista Roja de la UICNKeith et al.     

Seventy‐One Important Questions for the Conservation of Marine Biodiversity

The ocean provides food, economic activity, and cultural value for a large proportion of humanity. Our knowledge of marine ecosystems lags behind that of terrestrial ecosystems, limiting effective protection of marine resources. We describe the outcome of 2 workshops in 2011 and 2012 to establish a list of important questions, which, if answered, would substantially improve our ability to conserve and manage the world's marine resources. Participants included individuals from academia, government, and nongovernment organizations with broad experience across disciplines, marine ecosystems, and countries that vary in levels of development. Contributors from the fields of science, conservation, industry, and government submitted questions to our workshops, which we distilled into a list of priority research questions. Through this process, we identified 71 key questions. We grouped these into 8 subject categories, each pertaining to a broad component of marine conservation: fisheries, climate change, other anthropogenic threats, ecosystems, marine citizenship, policy, societal and cultural considerations, and scientific enterprise. Our questions address many issues that are specific to marine conservation, and will serve as a road map to funders and researchers to develop programs that can greatly benefit marine conservation. Setenta y Un Preguntas Importantes para la Conservación de la Biodiversidad Marina     

Current Practice and Future Prospects for Social Data in Coastal and Ocean Planning

Coastal and ocean planning comprises a broad field of practice. The goals, political processes, and approaches applied to planning initiatives may vary widely. However, all planning processes ultimately require adequate information on both the biophysical and social attributes of a planning region. In coastal and ocean planning practice, there are well‐established methods to assess biophysical attributes; however, less is understood about the role and assessment of social data. We conducted the first global assessment of the incorporation of social data in coastal and ocean planning. We drew on a comprehensive review of planning initiatives and a survey of coastal and ocean practitioners. There was significantly more incorporation of social data in multiuse versus conservation‐oriented planning. Practitioners engaged a wide range of social data, including governance, economic, and cultural attributes of planning regions and human impacts data. Less attention was given to ecosystem services and social–ecological linkages, both of which could improve coastal and ocean planning practice. Although practitioners recognize the value of social data, little funding is devoted to its collection and incorporation in plans. Increased capacity and sophistication in acquiring critical social and ecological data for planning is necessary to develop plans for more resilient coastal and ocean ecosystems and communities. We suggest that improving social data monitoring, and in particular spatial social data, to complement biophysical data, is necessary for providing holistic information for decision‐support tools and other methods. Moving beyond people as impacts to people as beneficiaries, through ecosystem services assessments, holds much potential to better incorporate the tenets of ecosystem‐based management into coastal and ocean planning by providing targets for linked biodiversity conservation and human welfare outcomes. La Práctica Actual y los Prospectos Futuros para los Datos Sociales en la Planeación Costera y Oceánica