Is the Intensity of Copper Use Still Declining in the USA?

This article examines several deficiencies in the standard procedure for calculating the intensity of metal use. It then investigates the possibility that the long-term decline in the intensity of copper use in the USA, which has persisted for more than four decades, has in recent years come to an end, even though the standard measures of intensity of use indicate a continuation of the downward trend, albeit at a slower rate. If true, the implications are significant for the copper industry worldwide, because the USA is the largest national market for copper. In addition, consumption trends in many other countries in some respects follow those in the USA. The results do provide some support for the hypothesis that intensity of copper use in the USA is no longer falling. They also indicate that the standard procedure significantly underestimates USA copper consumption and in turn intensity of use.     

Fencerows, Edges, and Implications of Changing Connectivity Illustrated by Two Contiguous Ohio Landscapes

We evaluated the amounts and implications of changes in habitat connectivity on rural landscapes by modeling the colonization success and subsequent habitat colonization of a model edge organism within real landscapes. We first inventoried the changes in the fencerow and forest-edge network of two contiguous Ohio (U.S.A.) landscapes, an agriculturally dominated till plain and a more diverse and dynamic moraine landscape, from 1940 to 1988. On the moraine the number of fencerows changed little from 1940 to 1971. The number increased by 86 during 1971–1988 as marginal farms were subdivided. The total length of fencerows on the moraine increased 2.5-fold over 48 years. On the till plain the number and total length of fencerows remained relatively constant through the study period. The sum of fencerows and forest edges was used as a measure of total ecotonal edge. On the moraine total edge increased through the study period, whereas on the till plain it decreased. We selected two levels of landscape connectivity, low and high, to model animal habitat colonization success. As connectivity increased the earliest successful colonists preempted an increasingly large proportion of the total suitable habitat, and the probability of successful colonization by later-arriving individuals decreased. The changes in connectivity that resulted from changes in both the fencerow network and the proportion of forested land have resulted in contiguous landscapes that present very different colonization potentials to organisms with long-distance dispersal capability. Given the current uncertainty of the effects of corridors on species-preservation efforts, we suggest that further modeling of this type prior to field testing will add useful insights, especially if conducted using specific species and landscape types.     

Assessing the Distribution and Protection Status of two Types of Cool Environment to Facilitate Their Conservation under Climate Change

Strategies to mitigate climate change can protect different types of cool environments. Two are receiving much attention: protection of ephemeral refuges (i.e., places with low maximum temperatures) and of stable refugia (i.e., places that are cool, have a stable environment, and are isolated). Problematically, they are often treated as equivalents. Careful delineation of their qualities is needed to prevent misdirected conservation initiatives; yet, no one has determined whether protecting one protects the other. We mapped both types of cool environments across a large (～3.4M ha) mixed‐use landscape with a geographic information system and conducted a patch analysis to compare their spatial distributions; examine relations between land use and their size and shape; and assess their current protection status. With a modest, but arbitrary, threshold for demarcating both types of cool environments (i.e., values below the 0.025 quantile) there were 146,523 ha of ephemeral refuge (62,208 ha) and stable refugia (62,319 ha). Ephemeral refuges were generally aggregated at high elevation, and more refuge area occurred in protected areas (55,184 ha) than in unprotected areas (7,024 ha). In contrast, stable refugia were scattered across the landscape, and more stable‐refugium area occurred on unprotected (40,135 ha) than on protected land (22,184 ha). Although sensitivity analysis showed that varying the thresholds that define cool environments affected outcomes, it also exposed the challenge of choosing a threshold for strategies to address climate change; there is no single value that is appropriate for all of biodiversity. The degree of overlap between ephemeral refuges and stable refugia revealed that targeting only the former for protection on currently unprotected land would capture ～17% of stable refugia. Targeting only stable refugia would capture ～54% of ephemeral refuges. Thus, targeting one type of cool environment did not fully protect the other. Evaluación de la Distribución y Estado de Protección de Dos Tipos de Ambientes Fríos para Facilitar su Conservación bajo el Cambio Climático     

Climate Change and Planning and Consultation for the UK Aviation White Paper

This note discusses environmental aspects of the planning and consultation process undertaken for the UK aviation White Paper. The process as a whole has involved some three years of forecasting and assessment of the operational, economic and environmental implications of some 28 options for airport expansion at 14 UK locations. Unconstrained passenger demand forecasts have been used as a basis for the planning and consultation, and a mitigation approach to environment has predominated. This is inadequate, given the climate impacts of the forecast aviation expansion. Greenhouse gas emissions reduction should be a high priority in transport infrastructure planning, not the subject of post-hoc analysis.     

The Northwest Forest Plan: Origins, Components, Implementation Experience, and Suggestions for Change

Abstract:  In the 1990s the federal forests in the Pacific Northwest underwent the largest shift in management focus since their creation, from providing a sustained yield of timber to conserving biodiversity, with an emphasis on endangered species. Triggered by a legal challenge to the federal protection strategy for the Northern Spotted Owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina ), this shift was facilitated by a sequence of science assessments that culminated in the development of the Northwest Forest Plan. The plan, adopted in 1994, called for an extensive system of late-successional and riparian reserves along with some timber harvest on the intervening lands under a set of controls and safeguards. It has proven more successful in stopping actions harmful to conservation of old-growth forests and aquatic systems than in achieving restoration goals and economic and social goals. We make three suggestions that will allow the plan to achieve its goals: (1) recognize that the Northwest Forest Plan has evolved into an integrative conservation strategy, (2) conserve old-growth trees and forests wherever they occur, and (3) manage federal forests as dynamic ecosystems.     

Nonlethal Techniques for Managing Predation: Primary and Secondary Repellents

Abstract:   Conservation biology requires the development of practical tools and techniques to minimize conflicts arising from human modification of ecosystems. We applied behavioral theory of primary and secondary repellents to predator management by using aversive stimulus devices (electronic training collars) and disruptive stimulus devices (behavior-contingent audio and visual repellents) in a multipredator ( Canis lupus, Haliaeetus leucocephalus, Ursus spp.) study in the United States. We examined fladry and a newly developed disruptive stimulus device contingent upon behavior on six wolf territories in Wisconsin, (U.S.A.) and determined that the disruptive stimulus device gave the greatest degree of protection from predation. We also compared the efficacy of a primary repellent (disruptive stimulus device) versus a secondary repellent (electronic training collars) to keep captive wolves from consuming a food source. Disruptive stimulus devices effectively prevented captive wolves from consuming the food resource, but did not produce an aversion to that food resource. With training collars, logistical and behavioral variability limited our ability to condition wolves. Our studies highlight the complexity of application of nonlethal techniques in real-world situations.     

The Long-Term Effects of Tiger Poaching on Population Viability

Poaching tigers, primarily for their bones, has become the latest threat to the persistence of wild tiger populations throughout the world. Anecdotal information indicates the seriousness of this new threat. It is important, however, to provide a quantitative analysis of poaching as a basis for strong policy action. We therefore created a tiger simulation model to explore the effects of realistic levels of poaching on population viability. The model is an individually based, stochastic spatial model that is based on the extensive data set from Royal Chitwan National Park, Nepal. We found that as poaching continues over time, the probability of population extinction increases sigmoidally; a critical zone exists in which a small, incremental increase in poaching greatly increases the probability of extinction. The implication is that poaching may not at first be seen as a threat but could suddenly become one. Moreover, even if poaching is effectively stopped, tiger populations will still be vulnerable and could go extinct due to demographic and environmental stochasticity. Our model also shows that poaching reduces genetic variability, which could further reduce population viability due to inbreeding depression. The longer poaching is allowed to continue, the more vulnerable a population will be to these stochastic events. At currently reported rates of poaching our analysis indicates that many wild tiger populations will be extirpated during the latter half of the 1990s.     

Habituation of Adult Magellanic Penguins to Human Visitation as Expressed through Behavior and Corticosterone Secretion

Abstract:  Ecotourism is increasing worldwide; hence, it is important to know how wildlife are affected behaviorally and physiologically by human visitation. We studied the effects of human visitation on the Magellanic Penguins ( Spheniscus magellanicus ) at Punta Tombo, Argentina, by monitoring changes in defensive head turns and plasma corticosterone (a hormone secreted in response to stress) for penguins with and without a history of tourist visitation. Habituation to human visitation was rapid. In penguins with no previous exposure to tourists, the number of defensive head turns and level of plasma corticosterone decreased significantly within 5 days of one 15-minute visit/day. Penguins living in tourist-visited and undisturbed areas secreted more corticosterone when captured and restrained than penguins visited by a person. Penguins in tourist areas, however, did not show as strong a corticosterone response to capture and restraint as did penguins in areas without tourists. This difference was due to a decreased capability of the adrenocortical tissue to secrete corticosterone in tourist-visited birds. Although our data show no direct negative effects of tourism on Magellanic Penguins at Punta Tombo, consequences of a modification of physiological capabilities (e.g., adrenocortical function) may not become apparent until much later in life. The physiological differences between tourist-visited and undisturbed groups of Magellanic Penguins emphasize the importance of monitoring the effects of anthropogenic disturbances on wildlife at multiple levels.     

Long-Term Ecosystem Dynamics in the Serengeti: Lessons for Conservation

Abstract:  Data from long-term ecological studies further understanding of ecosystem dynamics and can guide evidence-based management. In a quasi-natural experiment we examined long-term monitoring data on different components of the Serengeti-Mara Ecosystem to trace the effects of disturbances and thus to elucidate cause-and-effect connections between them. The long-term data illustrated the role of food limitation in population regulation in mammals, particularly in migratory wildebeest and nonmigratory buffalo. Predation limited populations of smaller resident ungulates and small carnivores. Abiotic events, such as droughts and floods, created disturbances that affected survivorship of ungulates and birds. Such disturbances showed feedbacks between biotic and abiotic realms. Interactions between elephants and their food allowed savanna and grassland communities to co-occur. With increased woodland vegetation, predators' capture of prey increased. Anthropogenic disturbances had direct (hunting) and indirect (transfer of disease to wildlife) effects. Slow and rapid changes and multiple ecosystem states became apparent only over several decades and involved events at different spatial scales. Conservation efforts should accommodate both infrequent and unpredictable events and long-term trends. Management should plan on the time scale of those events and should not aim to maintain the status quo. Systems can be self-regulating through food availability and predator-prey interactions; thus, culling may not be required. Ecosystems can occur in multiple states; thus, there may be no a priori need to maintain one natural state. Finally, conservation efforts outside protected areas must distinguish between natural change and direct human-induced change. Protected areas can act as ecological baselines in which human-induced change is kept to a minimum