Effects of Climate Change on Population Persistence of Desert-Dwelling Mountain Sheep in California

Abstract:  Metapopulations may be very sensitive to global climate change, particularly if temperature and precipitation change rapidly. We present an analysis of the role of climate and other factors in determining metapopulation structure based on presence and absence data. We compared existing and historical population distributions of desert bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) to determine whether regional climate patterns were correlated with local extinction. To examine all mountain ranges known to hold or to have held desert bighorn populations in California and score for variables describing climate, metapopulation dynamics, human impacts, and other environmental factors, we used a geographic information system (GIS) and paper maps. We used logistic regression and hierarchical partitioning to assess the relationship among these variables and the current status of each population (extinct or extant). Parameters related to climate—elevation, precipitation, and presence of dependable springs—were strongly correlated with population persistence in the twentieth century. Populations inhabiting lower, drier mountain ranges were more likely to go extinct. The presence of domestic sheep grazing allotments was negatively correlated with population persistence. We used conditional extinction probabilities generated by the logistic-regression model to rank native, naturally recolonized, and reintroduced populations by vulnerability to extinction under several climate-change scenarios. Thus risk of extinction in metapopulations can be evaluated for global-climate-change scenarios even when few demographic data are available.     

PATH CHOICE AND VISUAL STIMULI: SIGNS OF HUMAN ACTIVITY AND ARCHITECTURE

This paper is concerned with the exploratory behaviour of first-time visitors to an environment and specifically with the importance of visual stimuli in path choice. Forty-five participants were asked to select among photos representing the path choices at 13 street intersections in the historic centre of Montpellier, providing reasons as they proceeded. Preference among choices at intersections varied significantly in 10 of 13 cases. Eight intersections with the greatest differences in preference between choices were modified such that persons, signs, planters and awnings were removed from the most preferred scenes and inserted into the least preferred. The virtual tour was run again with a new group of participants. In comparison with the first group, the second expressed greater preference for path choices with added elements and diminished preference for photos with removed elements. Choices were also related to verbalizations and rated architectural properties.     

Managing Birds and Controlling Aircraft in the Kennedy Airport–Jamaica Bay Wildlife Refuge Complex: The Need for Hard Data and Soft Opinions

During the 1980s, the exponential growth of laughing gull (Larus atricilla) colonies, from 15 to about 7600 nests in 1990, in the Jamaica Bay Wildlife Refuge and a correlated increase in the bird-strike rate at nearby John F. Kennedy International Airport (New York City) led to a controversy between wildlife and airport managers over the elimination of the colonies. In this paper, we review data to evaluate if: (1) the colonies have increased the level of risk to the flying public; (2) on-colony population control would reduce the presence of gulls, and subsequently bird strikes, at the airport; and (3) all on-airport management alternatives have been adequately implemented. Since 1979, most (2987, 87%) of the 3444 bird strikes (number of aircraft struck) were actually bird carcasses found near runways (cause of death unknown but assumed to be bird strikes by definition). Of the 457 pilot-reported strikes (mean = 23 ± 6 aircraft/yr, N= 20 years), 78 (17%) involved laughing gulls. Since a gull-shooting program was initiated on airport property in 1991, over 50,000 adult laughing gulls have been killed and the number of reported bird strikes involving laughing gulls has declined from 6.9 ± 2.9 (1983–1990) to 2.6 ± 1.3 (1991–1998) aircraft/yr; nongull reported bird strikes, however, have more than doubled (6.4 ± 2.6, 1983–1990; 14.9 ± 5.1, 1991–1998). We found no evidence to indicate that on-colony management would yield a reduction of bird strikes at Kennedy Airport. Dietary and mark–recapture studies suggest that 60%–90% of the laughing gulls collected on-airport were either failed breeders and/or nonbreeding birds. We argue that the Jamaica Bay laughing gull colonies, the only ones in New York State, should not be managed at least until all on-airport management alternatives have been properly implemented and demonstrated to be ineffective at reducing bird strikes, including habitat alterations and increasing the capability of the bird control unit to eliminate bird flocks on-airport using nonlethal bird dispersal techniques. Because the gull-shooting program may be resulting in a nonsustainable regional population of laughing gulls (>30% decline), we also recommend that attempts be made to initiate an experimental colony elsewhere on Long Island to determine if colony relocation is a feasible management option.     

The Long-Term Effects of Tiger Poaching on Population Viability

Poaching tigers, primarily for their bones, has become the latest threat to the persistence of wild tiger populations throughout the world. Anecdotal information indicates the seriousness of this new threat. It is important, however, to provide a quantitative analysis of poaching as a basis for strong policy action. We therefore created a tiger simulation model to explore the effects of realistic levels of poaching on population viability. The model is an individually based, stochastic spatial model that is based on the extensive data set from Royal Chitwan National Park, Nepal. We found that as poaching continues over time, the probability of population extinction increases sigmoidally; a critical zone exists in which a small, incremental increase in poaching greatly increases the probability of extinction. The implication is that poaching may not at first be seen as a threat but could suddenly become one. Moreover, even if poaching is effectively stopped, tiger populations will still be vulnerable and could go extinct due to demographic and environmental stochasticity. Our model also shows that poaching reduces genetic variability, which could further reduce population viability due to inbreeding depression. The longer poaching is allowed to continue, the more vulnerable a population will be to these stochastic events. At currently reported rates of poaching our analysis indicates that many wild tiger populations will be extirpated during the latter half of the 1990s.     

Connectivity Planning to Address Climate Change

As the climate changes, human land use may impede species from tracking areas with suitable climates. Maintaining connectivity between areas of different temperatures could allow organisms to move along temperature gradients and allow species to continue to occupy the same temperature space as the climate warms. We used a coarse‐filter approach to identify broad corridors for movement between areas where human influence is low while simultaneously routing the corridors along present‐day spatial gradients of temperature. We modified a cost–distance algorithm to model these corridors and tested the model with data on current land‐use and climate patterns in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. The resulting maps identified a network of patches and corridors across which species may move as climates change. The corridors are likely to be robust to uncertainty in the magnitude and direction of future climate change because they are derived from gradients and land‐use patterns. The assumptions we applied in our model simplified the stability of temperature gradients and species responses to climate change and land use, but the model is flexible enough to be tailored to specific regions by incorporating other climate variables or movement costs. When used at appropriate resolutions, our approach may be of value to local, regional, and continental conservation initiatives seeking to promote species movements in a changing climate. Planificación de Conectividad para Atender el Cambio Climático     

Criteria for Oil Spill Recovery: A Case Study of the Intertidal Community of Prince William Sound, Alaska, Following the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill

Marine intertidal organisms in Prince William Sound were exposed to crude oil following the T/V Exxon Valdez oil spill in 1989. The intertidal communities were also subjected to mechanical disturbance during invasive oil spill remediation and cleanup efforts. Using monitoring data collected from 1989 to 1997, impacts and eventual recovery were assessed at oiled but uncleaned sites and oiled and cleaned study areas. A statistical model where recovery was defined as parallelism between the time profiles at control and oiled sites was evaluated. Statistical analysis and graphical presentations of the data suggest intertidal epibiota communities recovered from the oil spill by 1992 at the oiled sites and by 1994 at the oiled and remediated sites. Empirical data from the intertidal monitoring program supports the use of tests of parallelism in evaluating recovery and the need to avoid simply the comparison of sample means from control and oiled sites.     

Benefits of Studies of Overwintering Birds for Understanding Resident Bird Ecology and Promoting Development of Conservation Capacity

Abstract:  Funding of ecological research and monitoring of Neotropical migratory birds on their overwintering grounds has benefited both migratory and permanent-resident species. Using examples from our work in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, we demonstrate that ecological research of overwintering migrants often provides information about the ecology and demography of little-known tropical resident birds. Critically important long-term monitoring in Puerto Rico with a focus on winter residents has provided information on the relationships between annual rainfall and fluctuations in resident bird populations and survival rates. It also has alerted local biologists to declines in resident bird populations, including a decline apparently driven by the entry of a brood parasite. But migrant-focused research may also have had an underappreciated effect on the development of conservation capacity and conservation efforts in host countries. Investments in research on Neotropical migrants overwintering on Hispaniola have resulted in a huge increase in field training of students and wildlife professionals, promoted conservation awareness at local and national levels, played an important role in the growth and professionalization of key environmental organizations, spawned a growing ecotourism industry for bird-watching, and driven national park management planning and conservation efforts for all bird species. We encourage funding organizations and agencies to consider the broader impacts of funding migratory-bird research and monitoring efforts, and we encourage researchers in the tropics to use protocols that provide the most information about all the birds that use the study areas involved and to be aware of important opportunities that they may have to build capacity in host countries.     

Critical Factors and Evaluation Criteria for Habitat Translocation

Habitat translocation is the process of moving soils or substrates with their vegetation and any animals that remain associated with them in order to rescue or salvage habitats that would be lost due to changes in land use, or to restore biodiversity to damaged, degraded or newly created sites. Critical factors are similarity in the environmental context of the donor and receptor sites, the translocation technique, and habitat management of the translocated habitat. These critical factors should be taken into account in such a way that the risk of unwanted changes to a habitat due to translocation is reduced to a level that takes account of its nature conservation value. Long-term habitat management and monitoring schemes need to be implemented fully to obtain the biodiversity benefits of translocation. Evaluation of the degree of success or failure against the original aims of the translocation project over a defined period of time requires objective criteria and repeatable measurements that can be confirmed independently of the project team. Codes of best practice covering guidelines and standards for habitat translocation are required which will benefit both business and industry and the planning and regulatory authorities.     

A Multiscale Landscape Approach to Predicting Bird and Moth Rarity Hotspots in a Threatened Pitch Pine–Scrub Oak Community

Abstract:  In the northeastern United States, pitch pine (  Pinus rigida Mill.)–scrub oak ( Quercus ilicifolia Wang.) communities are increasingly threatened by development and fire suppression, and prioritization of these habitats for conservation is of critical importance. As a basis for local conservation planning in a pitch pine–scrub oak community in southeastern Massachusetts, we developed logistic-regression models based on multiscale landscape and patch variables to predict hotspots of rare and declining bird and moth species. We compared predicted moth distributions with observed species-occurrence records to validate the models. We then quantified the amount of overlap between hotspots to assess the utility of rare birds and moths as indicator taxa. Species representation in hotspots and the current level of hotspot protection were also assessed. Predictive models included variables at all measured scales and resulted in average correct classification rates (optimal cut point) of 85.6% and 89.2% for bird and moth models, respectively. The majority of moth occurrence records were within 100 m of predicted habitat. Only 13% of all bird hotspots and 10% of all moth hotspots overlapped, and only a few small patches in and around Myles Standish State Forest were predicted to be hotspots for both taxa. There was no correlation between the bird and moth species-richness maps across all levels of richness ( r =−0.03, p = 0.62). Species representation in hotspots was high, but most hotspots had limited or no protection. Given the lack of correspondence between bird and moth hotspots, our results suggest that use of species-richness indicators for conservation planning may be ineffective at local scales. Based on these results, we suggest that local-level conservation planning in pitch pine–scrub oak communities be based on multitaxa, multiscale approaches.     

The Normative Dimension and Legal Meaning of Endangered and Recovery in the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Abstract:  The ethical, legal, and social significance of the U.S. Endangered Species Act of 1973 (ESA) is widely appreciated. Much of the significance of the act arises from the legal definitions that the act provides for the terms threatened species and endangered species. The meanings of these terms are important because they give legal meaning to the concept of a recovered species. Unfortunately, the meanings of these terms are often misapprehended and rarely subjected to formal analysis. We analyzed the legal meaning of recovered species and illustrate key points with details from "recovery" efforts for the gray wolf ( Canis lupus ). We focused on interpreting the phrase "significant portion of its range," which is part of the legal definition of endangered species. We argue that recovery and endangerment entail a fundamentally normative dimension (i.e., specifying conditions of endangerment) and a fundamentally scientific dimension (i.e., determining whether a species meets the conditions of endangerment). Specifying conditions for endangerment is largely normative because it judges risks of extinction to be either acceptable or unacceptable. Like many other laws that specify what is unacceptable, the ESA largely specifies the conditions that constitute unacceptable extinction risk. The ESA specifies unacceptable risks of extinction by defining endangered species in terms of the portion of a species' range over which a species is "in danger of extinction." Our analysis indicated that (1) legal recovery entails much more than the scientific notion of population viability, (2) most efforts to recover endangered species are grossly inadequate, and (3) many unlisted species meet the legal definition of an endangered or threatened species.