Predicting the economic costs and property value losses attributed to sudden oak death damage in California (2010-2020)

Phytophthora ramorum, cause of sudden oak death, is a quarantined, non-native, invasive forest pathogen resulting in substantial mortality in coastal live oak (Quercus agrifolia) and several other related tree species on the Pacific Coast of the United States. We estimate the discounted cost of oak treatment, removal, and replacement on developed land in California communities using simulations of P. ramorum spread and infection risk over the next decade (2010-2020). An estimated 734 thousand oak trees occur on developed land in communities in the analysis area. The simulations predict an expanding sudden oak death (SOD) infestation that will likely encompass most of northwestern California and warrant treatment, removal, and replacement of more than 10 thousand oak trees with discounted cost of $7.5 million. In addition, we estimate the discounted property losses to single family homes of $135 million. Expanding the land base to include developed land outside as well as inside communities doubles the estimates of the number of oak trees killed and the associated costs and losses. The predicted costs and property value losses are substantial, but many of the damages in urban areas (e.g. potential losses from increased fire and safety risks of the dead trees and the loss of ecosystem service values) are not included.     

Functional Properties of Extruded Acetylated Starch-Cellulose Foams

Acetylated starches, with degrees of substitution (DS) of 2, 2.5 and 3, were blended with 3%, 7.5% and 12% -cellulose and 14%, 17% or 20% (d.b.) ethanol and twin-screw extruded at 165°C barrel temperature and 225 rpm screw speed. A response surface methodology experimental design was applied to the sub-plot and a completely randomized design to the whole plot design to test the differences among the acetylated starches and the effects of cellulose and ethanol. DS, cellulose and ethanol contents significantly affected the functional properties and specific mechanical energy requirement. DS had positive effects on radial expansion ratio (RER), compressibility and specific mechanical energy requirement and a negative effect on bulk density. Highest (RER) was obtained from 20% ethanol content. Extrudates containing 12% cellulose had the highest bulk density and the highest compressibility. Higher cellulose contents required more specific mechanical energy.     

SENSITIVITY OF GROUNDWATER FLOW MODELS TO VERTICAL VARIABILITY OF AQUIFER CONSTANTS1

ABSTRACT: The Ogallala aquifer in the Oklahoma Panhandle is in need of better management because of increased groundwater demand which has caused declines in static water levels at an alarming rate. A groundwater management computer model was developed for the Ogallala aquifer in the Texas Panhandle and treats the aquifer as a homogeneous system. In this study, the computer model has been modified in order to evaluate the effects of vertical layering on semi-static water level changes which occur during the dewatering of a single unconfined aquifer. The modified model was applied to a study area near Guymon, Oklahoma, using both the homogeneous and the multilayered cases. The aquifer is characterized by a saturated thickness of 400 feet. The accumulated drawdown values of the homogeneous and the multilayered cases demonstrate that an average difference of approximately 22% of the original saturated thickness occurs between the two cases before the base of the aquifer is encountered. Approximately 25% more time is required to dewater the layered aquifer. Thus, vertical variations of lithology in an aquifer such as the Ogallala should be considered when prediction is made relative to groundwater management.     

In utero development of a mediastinal teratoma: A second-trimester event

Mediastinal teratomas have rarely been discovered during the prenatal period. When seen during the neonatal period, these tumours have caused respiratory distress or hydrops fetalis. We present the sonographic and pathological findings of a rapidly developing anterior mediastinal teratoma causing hydrops fetalis and in utero demise at 27 weeks' gestation.     

On ground truth in cross-border ozone transport

Cross-border transport of ozone is one of the most contentious issues of air pollution management in the U.S. Yet, both the modeling and observational studies are lacking. Models are normally validated by comparing predicted and observed ozone concentrations. However, proper validation of cross-border transport model requires a comparison of predictions against observation-based benchmarks of cross-border ozone transport. Such benchmarks are unavailable, as published observation-based studies always deal only with a combination of local production and cross-border transport, not a cross-border transport itself. We show how to extract necessary benchmarks from observations of rural monitoring sites near state borders. On example of the western border of New York, we find that in about two-thirds of the most polluted days all the ozone came in a steady cross-border inflow after previously passing over one or more large urban areas to the west. In all the enumerated days with direct cross-border inflow, daily maximum 8-hr concentrations of ozone just upwind of the border were over 60 ppb, with an average value of 68 ppb, just short of the 70 ppb ozone regulatory threshold, information also useful to state air pollution authorities.

Implications: The purpose of the cross-border ozone pollution models is to predict cross-border transport of ozone, so the ability of the model to accurately represent observed ozone concentrations is necessary but not sufficient for model validation. The accuracy of predicted ozone concentrations is not necessarily the same as the accuracy of the predictions of ozone transport. Proper model validation requires comparisons against observation-based benchmarks of cross-border transport. Such observations, so far absent, can be obtained from rural monitoring sites near state borders, as illustrated by the example of western New York.     

An analysis of joint costs in a managed forest ecosystem

This paper analyzes the tenability of line item budgeting and independently determined output costs for a managed forest ecosystem. The general problem of cost allocation in a joint production system is discussed as one of choosing paths of integration. A production structure is hypothesized for describing a managed forest ecosystem and its characteristics of “jointness” are discussed. Finally, an empirical case example is presented which indicates that cost estimates and associated means of production which result from single output costing procedures and from joint costing procedures may be significantly different in a managed forest ecosystem.