SIMULATING NITROGEN LOSSES FROM AGRICULTURAL LAND: IMPLICATIONS FOR WATER QUALITY AND PROTECTION POLICY1

ABSTRACT: EPIC, a soil erosion/plant growth simulation model, is used to simulate nitrogen losses for 120 randomly selected and previously surveyed cropland sites. Simulated nitrogen losses occur through volatilization, surface water and soil runoff, subsurface lateral flow, and leaching. Physical and crop management variables explain a moderate but significant proportion of the variation in nitrogen losses. Site slope and tillage have offsetting effects on surface and ground water losses. Nitrogen applications in excess of agronomic recommendations and manure obtained off the farm and applied to the sites are significant contributors to nitrogen losses. Farm characteristics such as production of confined livestock, total manure nitrogen available, and farm income per cropland acre explain a relatively large portion of the variability in manure nitrogen applied to survey sites. The results help to identify farm characteristics that can be used to target nutrient management programs. Simulation modeling provides a useful tool for investigating variables which contribute to agricultural nitrogen losses.     

Assessing desertification risk using system stability condition analysis

This paper describes a procedure for evaluating the desertification risk in threatened areas. The procedure is based on an eight-equation dynamic model of a generic human–resource system that can be applied to different desertification syndromes. For each application, interest focuses on finding all the possible long-term final states of the system and on defining the conditions that mark out sustainability and long-term desertification by means of unambiguous specific parameter relations. The procedure is applied to three typified cases in Spain: (A) rainfed crops in areas with high soil erosion risk; (B) irrigated intensive agricultural systems; and (C) commercial rangelands. Results show that, in case A, high profit scenarios are responsible for the final extension of desertification but do not determine the specific threshold between sustainability and desertification. They do, however, in cases B and C.     

A Spanish model for quantification and management of construction waste

Currently, construction and demolition waste (C&D waste) is a worldwide issue that concerns not only governments but also the building actors involved in construction activity. In Spain, a new national decree has been regulating the production and management of C&D waste since February 2008. The present work describes the waste management model that has inspired this decree: the Alcores model implemented with good results in Los Alcores Community (Seville, Spain). A detailed model is also provided to estimate the volume of waste that is expected to be generated on the building site. The quantification of C&D waste volume, from the project stage, is essential for the building actors to properly plan and control its disposal. This quantification model has been developed by studying 100 dwelling projects, especially their bill of quantities, and defining three coefficients to estimate the demolished volume (CT), the wreckage volume (CR) and the packaging volume (CE). Finally, two case studies are included to illustrate the usefulness of the model to estimate C&D waste volume in both new construction and demolition projects.     

Correlation structure between inflation and oil futures returns: An equilibrium approach

We use an equilibrium model of a monetary economy to understand the economics behind the correlation between inflation and oil futures returns. We find that some of the positive correlation found in empirical studies is due to the fact that oil is in the consumption basket; however, this accounts only for a minor part of it. There exist other important sources of correlation related to monetary shocks and output shocks. In particular, we find that the correlation is extremely sensitive to the reaction of the central bank to output shocks, while the reaction to inflation changes is less significant. We estimate our model using maximum likelihood with the following data sets: crude oil futures prices, nominal interest rates, inflation rates and money supply growth rates. Our estimates suggest that the monetary authority overreacts to output shocks by increasing the money supply in a more than necessary amount, generating a significant source of positive correlation. From a practical perspective, We find that it is a good strategy to use as a hedge, the futures whose maturity is closer to the hedging horizon. This is particularly true for short-term hedging.     

Genealogical Analysis of a Closed Herd of Black Hairless Iberian Pigs

Abstract: Livestock breeds are recognized as important components of world biodiversity. The Iberian pig is a swine breed well adapted to the Mediterranean forest ecosystem and provides cured products of high quality. The ancient population of Iberian pigs (  Sus scrofa meridionalis ) was differentiated in several local types, the black hairless pigs representing the fattest genetic type. The conservation program of the Guadyerbas strain has maintained this germplasm isolated since 1945 as a closed population in an experimental herd. The complete pedigree, with 1000 breeding animals descending from 24 founders, has been used to measure along the successive cohorts of breeding animals the effective number of founders, effective number of nonfounders, founder genome equivalents, and expected number of founders' surviving alleles. For the last cohort, the values were 10.34, 1.42, 1.25, and 4.06, respectively. The evolution of inbreeding and coancestry and its components attributable to each founder were also studied. The rate of increase in inbreeding and coancestry was 2.21% per cohort, or 0.906% per year. Finally, the effect of family structure and mating tactics on the evolution of coancestry was also analyzed. The greatest rates of coancestry per cohort were attributable to unbalanced family sizes, and the use of minimum coancestry matings effectively delayed the increase in inbreeding.     

Safety climate: Leading or lagging indicator of safety outcomes?

This paper theorizes how and why safety climate can be conceived as both a leading and a lagging indicator of safety events (i.e., accidents, injuries). When safety climate is conceived as a leading indicator, a prospective design is utilized and safety climate data are correlated with accidents/injuries that occur in the future. When safety climate is conceived as a lagging indicator, retrospective designs are used in which safety climate data are correlated with prior accidents/injuries. We examine the research literature to reveal that safety climate has been investigated as both a leading and a lagging indicator, but it is usually only examined as one or the other within a given study and has been examined as a lagging indicator most frequently. Consistent with our theorizing, prospective designs yield stronger relationships than retrospective designs, suggesting that safety climate is a better leading indicator than lagging indicator; however, it is clearly both. Implications for safety climate research and study design are discussed.     

Arsenic speciation in arsenic-rich Brazilian soils from gold mining sites under anaerobic incubation

BACKGROUND: Arsenic speciation in environmental samples is essential for studying toxicity, mobility and bio-transformation of As in aquatic and terrestrial environments. Although the inorganic species As(III) and As(V) have been considered dominant in soils and sediments, organisms are able to metabolize inorganic forms of arsenic into organo-arsenic compounds. Arsenosugars and methylated As compounds can be found in terrestrial organisms, but they generally occur only as minor constituents. We investigated the dynamics of arsenic species under anaerobic conditions in soils surrounding gold mining areas from Minas Gerais State, Brazil to elucidate the arsenic biogeochemical cycle and water contamination mechanisms. METHODS: Surface soil samples were collected at those sites, namely Paracatu Formation, Banded Iron Formation and Riacho dos Machados Sequence, and incubated in CaCl2 2.5 mmol L(-1) suspensions under anaerobic conditions for 1, 28, 56 and 112 days. After that, suspensions were centrifuged and supernatants analyzed for soluble As species by IC-ICPMS and HPLC-ICPMS. RESULTS: Easily exchangeable As was mainly arsenite, except when reducible manganese was present. Arsenate was mainly responsible for the increase in soluble arsenic due to the reductive dissolution of either iron or manganese in samples from the Paracatu Formation and Riacho dos Machados Sequence. On the other hand, organic species of As dominated in samples from the Banded Iron Formation during anaerobic incubation. DISCUSSION: Results are contrary to the expectation that, in anaerobic environments, As release due to the reductive dissolution of Fe is followed by As(V) reduction to As(III). The occurrence of organo-arsenic species was also found to be significant to the dynamics of soluble arsenic, mainly in soils from the Banded Iron Formation (BIF), under our experimental conditions. CONCLUSIONS: In general, As(V) and organic As were the dominant species in solution, which is surprising under anaerobic conditions in terrestrial environments. The unexpected occurrence of organic species of As was attributed to enrollment of ternary organic complexes or living organisms such as algae or cyanobacteria. PERSPECTIVES: These findings are believed to be useful for remediation strategies in mine-affected regions, as the organic As species are in general considered to be less toxic than inorganic ones and even As(V) is considered less mobile and toxic than As(III).     

Nest-maintenance effort and health status in chinstrap penguins, Pygoscelis antarctica: the functional significance of stone-provisioning behaviour

Stone provisioning is a nest-maintenance activity accomplished by pygoscelid penguins after reliefs during the incubation/brooding period. The functional significance of this behaviour has been mainly explained as a parental strategy preventing nest flooding under detrimental weather conditions. In addition, and in the light of recent studies, this behaviour could also fit into the sexual selection process. In this study, we tested the first idea, that is, whether stone provisioning is a nest-maintenance behaviour to increase egg/nestling survival by lowering the risk of nest flooding, and can thus be considered a form of parental care. Additionally, we investigated if the effort invested by parents in nest maintenance is constrained by physiologically limiting resources. The effort of stone collection and the perceived risk of nest flooding were experimentally manipulated during the incubation and early brooding phases in a chinstrap penguin, Pygoscelis antarctica, colony. Three groups of nests were established. After weighing, control nests were left unmanipulated. In a second group of nests (reduced group), only one-half of the initial weight of stones was returned to the nests. In a third group of nests (snow-added group), we both reduced nest weight by a half and added snow outside the nest bowl over 6 consecutive days. Ten days after manipulation, the difference in nest weight between initial and final conditions was significantly related to treatment: penguins increased stone provisioning in the reduced group (44% of half-reduced nests), but drastically more in the reduced and snow-added group (123% of half-reduced nests), while the weight of control nests was unchanged compared to premanipulation conditions. The intensity of stone provisioning was affected by nest date, peaking about hatching time and shortly after, and declining with advancing chick age. These results suggest that stone provisioning is a mechanism that has evolved to prevent egg or chick mortality by nest flooding. The haematocrit, but not leukocyte numbers as expressed by the buffy coat layer, varied with the experimental conditions. Penguins investing more time in nest maintenance had a lower haematocrit, suggesting a physiological trade-off probably mediated by competition between the time devoted to nest maintenance versus foraging activities. The amount of stones collected and the haematocrit were positively related to the number of neighbour nests, so those individuals surrounded by more nests seemed to obtain benefits in the availability of nest material and energy savings. This study indicates that stone-provisioning behaviour is a nest-maintenance activity evolved to improve thermal nest characteristics potentially increasing offspring survival, and competing in time and energy with other reproductive activities. Stone provisioning in penguins should therefore be regarded as a form of parental care and an important part of individual reproductive effort in species breeding in harsh environments. Furthermore, nest size and nest-maintenance effort should be considered reproductive traits indicative of parental quality and thus could also be involved in the post-mating sexual selection process.