Assessing tiger population dynamics using photographic capture-recapture sampling

Although wide-ranging, elusive, large carnivore species, such as the tiger, are of scientific and conservation interest, rigorous inferences about their population dynamics are scarce because of methodological problems of sampling populations at the required spatial and temporal scales. We report the application of a rigorous, noninvasive method for assessing tiger population dynamics to test model-based predictions about population viability. We obtained photographic capture histories for 74 individual tigers during a nine-year study involving 5725 trap-nights of effort. These data were modeled under a likelihood-based, "robust design" capture-recapture analytic framework. We explicitly modeled and estimated ecological parameters such as time-specific abundance, density, survival, recruitment, temporary emigration, and transience, using models that incorporated effects of factors such as individual heterogeneity, trap-response, and time on probabilities of photo-capturing tigers. The model estimated a random temporary emigration parameter of gamma" = gamma' = 0.10 +/- 0.069 (values are estimated mean +/- SE). When scaled to an annual basis, tiger survival rates were estimated at S = 0.77 +/- 0.051, and the estimated probability that a newly caught animal was a transient was tau = 0.18 +/- 0.11. During the period when the sampled area was of constant size, the estimated population size N(t) varied from 17 +/- 1.7 to 31 +/- 2.1 tigers, with a geometric mean rate of annual population change estimated as lambda = 1.03 +/- 0.020, representing a 3% annual increase. The estimated recruitment of new animals, B(t), varied from 0 +/- 3.0 to 14 +/- 2.9 tigers. Population density estimates, D, ranged from 7.33 +/- 0.8 tigers/100 km2 to 21.73 +/- 1.7 tigers/100 km2 during the study. Thus, despite substantial annual losses and temporal variation in recruitment, the tiger density remained at relatively high levels in Nagarahole. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that protected wild tiger populations can remain healthy despite heavy mortalities because of their inherently high reproductive potential. The ability to model the entire photographic capture history data set and incorporate reduced-parameter models led to estimates of mean annual population change that were sufficiently precise to be useful. This efficient, noninvasive sampling approach can be used to rigorously investigate the population dynamics of tigers and other elusive, rare, wide-ranging animal species in which individuals can be identified from photographs or other means.     

Predicting biodiversity change: outside the climate envelope, beyond the species-area curve

Efforts to anticipate threats to biodiversity take the form of species richness predictions (SRPs) based on simple correlations with current climate and habitat area. We review the major approaches that have been used for SRP, species-area curves and climate envelopes, and suggest that alternative research efforts may provide more understanding and guidance for management. Extinction prediction suffers from a number of limitations related to data and the novelty of future environments. We suggest additional attention to (1) identification of variables related to biodiversity that are diagnostic and potentially more predictable than extinction, (2) constraints on species dispersal and reproduction that will determine population persistence and range shifts, including limited sources or potential immigrants for many regions, and (3) changes in biotic interactions and phenology. We suggest combinations of observational and experimental approaches within a framework available for ingesting heterogeneous data sources. Together, these recommendations amount to a shift in emphasis from prediction of extinction numbers to identification of vulnerabilities and leading indicators of change, as well as suggestions for surveillance tools needed to evaluate important variables and the experiments likely to provide most insight.     

Contrasting structure and composition of the understory in species-rich tropical rain forests

In large samples of trees > or = 1 cm dbh (more than 1 million trees and 3000 species), in six lowland tropical forests on three continents, we assigned species with >30 individuals to one of six classes of stature at maturity (SAM). We then compared the proportional representation of understory trees (1-2 cm dbh) among these classes. The understory of the three Asian sites was predominantly composed of the saplings of large-canopy trees whereas the African and American sites were more richly stocked with trees of the smaller SAM classes. Differences in class representation were related to taxonomic families that were present exclusively in one continent or another. Families found in the Asian plots but not in the American plot (e.g., Dipterocarpaceae, Fagaceae) were predominantly species of the largest SAM classes, whereas families exclusive to the American plots (e.g., Melastomataceae sensu stricto, Piperaceae, and Malvaceae [Bombacacoidea]) were predominantly species of small classes. The African plot was similar to Asia in the absence of those American families rich in understory species, while similar to America in lacking the Asian families rich in canopy species. The numerous understory species of Africa were chiefly derived from families shared with Asia and/or America. The ratio of saplings (1-2 cm dbh) to conspecific canopy trees (>40 cm dbh) was lower in American plots than in the Asian plots. Possible explanations for these differences include phenology, moisture and soil fertility regimes, phyletic constraints, and the role of early successional plants in forest development. These results demonstrate that tropical forests that appear similar in tree number, basal area, and the family taxonomy of canopy trees nonetheless differ in ecological structure in ways that may impact the ecology of pollinators, dispersers, and herbivores and might reflect fundamental differences in canopy tree regeneration.     

Graduated driver licensing and teenage driver research in 2006

This is the third update of research on graduated driver licensing (GDL) and related teenage driver issues. It briefly summarizes research published since or not included in the 2005 update (Hedlund, J., & Compton, R. (2005). Graduated driver licensing research in 2004 and 2005. Journal of Safety Research, 36(2), 109-119.), describes research in progress of which the authors are aware, and announces plans for a symposium on teenage driving and GDL to be held in February 2007.     

The prebiotic synthesis of pyrimidines in frozen solution

Most prebiotic syntheses depend on the reaction of concentrated precursor compounds to produce bio-organic molecules. It is now believed that the early Earth’s atmosphere was not reducing enough to have permitted copious synthesis of precursor molecules. Freezing allows reaction to occur even from dilute solution. This reaction has been demonstrated for the purines but not for the pyrimidines. It is shown here that dilute solutions of simple prebiotic molecules produce the biological pyrimidines cytosine and uracil upon freezing. Cold environments may have allowed synthesis of all of the RNA bases even from low organic yielding atmospheres, such as those of the early Earth, Mars, Titan and Europa.     

Effects of climate change and UV radiation on fisheries for arctic freshwater and anadromous species

Fisheries for arctic freshwater and diadromous fish species contribute significantly to northern economies. Climate change, and to a lesser extent increased ultraviolet radiation, effects in freshwaters will have profound effects on fisheries from three perspectives: quantity of fish available, quality of fish available, and success of the fishers. Accordingly, substantive adaptation will very likely be required to conduct fisheries sustainably in the future as these effects take hold. A shift to flexible and rapidly responsive 'adaptive management' of commercial fisheries will be necessary; local land- and resource-use patterns for subsistence fisheries will change; and, the nature, management and place for many recreational fisheries will change. Overall, given the complexity and uncertainty associated with climate change and related effects on arctic freshwaters and their biota, a much more conservative approach to all aspects of fishery management will be required to ensure ecosystems and key fished species retain sufficient resiliency and capacity to meet future changes.     

Effects of ultraviolet radiation and contaminant-related stressors on arctic freshwater ecosystems

Climate change is likely to act as a multiple stressor, leading to cumulative and/or synergistic impacts on aquatic systems. Projected increases in temperature and corresponding alterations in precipitation regimes will enhance contaminant influxes to aquatic systems, and independently increase the susceptibility of aquatic organisms to contaminant exposure and effects. The consequences for the biota will in most cases be additive (cumulative) and multiplicative (synergistic). The overall result will be higher contaminant loads and biomagnification in aquatic ecosystems. Changes in stratospheric ozone and corresponding ultraviolet radiation regimes are also expected to produce cumulative and/or synergistic effects on aquatic ecosystem structure and function. Reduced ice cover is likely to have a much greater effect on underwater UV radiation exposure than the projected levels of stratospheric ozone depletion. A major increase in UV radiation levels will cause enhanced damage to organisms (biomolecular, cellular, and physiological damage, and alterations in species composition). Allocations of energy and resources by aquatic biota to UV radiation protection will increase, probably decreasing trophic-level productivity. Elemental fluxes will increase via photochemical pathways.     

An assessment of the risks associated with polychlorinated biphenyls found in the stomach contents of stranded Indo-Pacific Humpback Dolphins (Sousa chinensis) and Finless Porpoises (Neophocaena phocaenoides) from Hong Kong waters

The risks to Indo-Pacific Humpback Dolphins and Finless Porpoises associated with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were assessed. Stomach contents from twelve stranded Humpback Dolphins and sixteen stranded Finless Porpoises were collected. Concentrations of total and isomer-specific PCBs in the stomach contents were determined using dual-column gas chromatography equipped with electron capture detectors (GC-ECD). Risks due to the PCBs were assessed in three scenarios, based on total PCBs (summation of 41 PCB congeners), total toxicity equivalency (TEQs) and PCB 118, using the toxicity reference values (TRVs) as the threshold effects benchmarks. The calculated risk quotients (RQs) showed that risks due to PCBs were generally low or negligible. Specifically, RQs from total TEQs and total PCBs for Finless Porpoises are below one, suggesting that PCBs should be a low risk for the Finless Porpoise in Hong Kong waters. However, the Humpback Dolphin has RQs larger than 1 for total TEQs and total PCBs when the 95th percentile data were used in the evaluation. This indicates that further investigation may be needed to examine more closely the potential impact of toxic contaminants in the habitat of the Humpback Dolphin.     

Levels of trace elements in green turtle eggs collected from Hong Kong: Evidence of risks due to selenium and nickel

Concentrations of 22 trace elements were determined in green turtle (Chelonia mydas) eggs collected from Hong Kong. Concentrations of selenium, lead and nickel in these eggs were generally higher than those reported in other studies. The predicted no effect concentrations (PNEC; ng/g wet weight) of Pb (1000), Se (340 and 6000 for the worst-case and best-case scenarios, respectively) and Ni (17) in the green turtle eggs were estimated. Hazard quotients (HQs) estimate that Se (HQs: 0.2-24.5) and Ni (HQs: 4.0-26.4) may pose some risks to the turtles. Our study also found that concentrations of Ag, Se, Zn, Hg and Pb in the shell of the turtle eggs were significantly correlated with levels in the whole egg contents (yolk+albumen). Once the precise relationships of specific elements are established, egg-shell concentrations may be used as a non-lethal, non-invasive, surrogate for predicting whole egg burden of certain contaminants in marine turtles.     

New York State urban and rural measurements of continuous PM2.5 mass by FDMS, TEOM, and BAM

Field evaluations and comparisons of continuous fine particulate matter (PM2,5) mass measurement technologies at an urban and a rural site in New York state are performed. The continuous measurement technologies include the filter dynamics measurement system (FDMS) tapered element oscillating microbalance (TEOM) monitor, the stand-alone TEOM monitor (without the FDMS), and the beta attenuation monitor (BAM). These continuous measurement methods are also compared with 24-hr integrated filters collected and analyzed under the Federal Reference Method (FRM) protocol. The measurement sites are New York City (the borough of Queens) and Addison, a rural area of southwestern New York state. New York City data comparisons between the FDMS TEOM, BAM, and FRM are examined for bias and seasonality during a 2-yr period. Data comparisons for the FDMS TEOM and FRM from the Addison location are examined for the same 2-yr period. The BAM and FDMS measurements at Queens are highly correlated with each other and the FRM. The BAM and FDMS are very similar to each other in magnitude, and both are approximately 25% higher than the FRM filter measurements at this site. The FDMS at Addison measures approximately 9% more mass than the FRM. Mass reconstructions using the speciation trends network filter data are examined to provide insight as to the contribution of volatile species of PM2.5 in the FDMS mass measurement and the fraction that is likely lost in the FRM mass measurement. The reconstructed mass at Queens is systematically lower than the FDMS by approximately 10%.