Microtargeting for conservation

Widespread human action and behavior change is needed to achieve many conservation goals. Doing so at the requisite scale and pace will require the efficient delivery of outreach campaigns. Conservation gains will be greatest when efforts are directed toward places of high conservation value (or need) and tailored to critical actors. Recent strategic conservation planning has relied primarily on spatial assessments of biophysical attributes, largely ignoring the human dimensions. Elsewhere, marketers, political campaigns, and others use microtargeting—predictive analytics of big data—to identify people most likely to respond positively to particular messages or interventions. Conservationists have not yet widely capitalized on these techniques. To investigate the effectiveness of microtargeting to improve conservation, we developed a propensity model to predict restoration behavior among 203,645 private landowners in a 5,200,000 ha study area in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (U.S.A.). To isolate the additional value microtargeting may offer beyond geospatial prioritization, we analyzed a new high-resolution land-cover data set and cadastral data to identify private owners of riparian areas needing restoration. Subsequently, we developed and evaluated a restoration propensity model based on a database of landowners who had conducted restoration in the past and those who had not (n = 4978). Model validation in a parallel database (n = 4989) showed owners with the highest scorers for propensity to conduct restoration (i.e., top decile) were over twice as likely as average landowners to have conducted restoration (135%). These results demonstrate that microtargeting techniques can dramatically increase the efficiency and efficacy of conservation programs, above and beyond the advances offered by biophysical prioritizations alone, as well as facilitate more robust research of many social–ecological systems.     

Exclusion of chromosomal mosaicism in amniotic fluid cultures: Efficacy of in situ versus flask techniques

Accurate diagnosis of mosaicism in amniotic fluid cell cultures represents a major problem. If insufficient cells are analysed, true fetal mosaicism may go undetected. False-positive diagnosis is also possible since a second cell line may arise in vitro and not reflect the true fetal genetic constitution. These difficulties apply to both flask and in situ culture techniques, to varying degrees. The relative accuracy of flask versus in situ culture techniques in excluding mosaicism was determined by statistical analysis of experimental data from ten pairs of mixed male-female amniotic fluid specimens. The data support the idea that the majority of in situ colonies are independent of one another. The following conclusions are drawn: (1) analysis of a single metaphase from a number of different colonies enhances the confidence for excluding mosaicism; (2) analysis of more than one cell per colony offers little advantage; (3) exclusion of a given level of mosaicism requires analysis of fewer metaphases using the in situ method; (4) the confidence for excluding mosaicism is high with both in situ and flask techniques, using the provided guidelines; and (5) it is shown that the two-stage approach used by many laboratories is currently the most efficient way to exclude mosaicism.     

A 13-Week Comparison of Passive and Continuous Ozone Monitors at Forested Sites in North-Central Pennsylvania

ABSTRACT

Ogawa passive O₃ samplers were used in a 13-week study (June 1-September 1, 1999) involving 11 forested and mountaintop sites in north-central Pennsylvania. Four of the sites were collocated with TECO model 49 O₃ analyzers. A significant correlation (p < 0.0001) was found for 24-hr average weekly O₃ concentrations between the two methodologies at the four sites with collocated monitors. As expected, there were positive relationships between increasing elevation of the sites and increasing O₃ concentrations. No O₃ exposure patterns were found on a west-to-east or south-to-north basis; however, the area known for lower O₃ exposures within a smaller subsection of the study area showed consistently lower O₃ exposures. Preliminary results regarding relationships of symptom responses within O₃-sensitive bioindicators are also presented with black cherry (Prunus serotina, Elirli.) and common milkweed (Asclepias syriaca, L.) showing clear evidence of increasing injury with increasing O₃ exposures. Due to the extremely dry conditions encountered in north-central Pennsylvania during the 1999 growing season, O₃-induced symptoms were sporadic and quite delayed until late-season rains during the latter portion of the observation period.     

Effect of Advanced Oxidants Generated Via Ultraviolet Light on a Sequentially Loaded and Regenerated Granular Activated Carbon Biofilter

Abstract

The objective of this research was to investigate a sequentially loaded and regenerated granular activated carbon (GAC) biofilter system and to determine whether regenerative ozonation/advanced oxidation could improve the removal and biodegradation of a volatile organic compound from a contaminated airstream. Bench-scale reactors were constructed to operate in a manner analogous to a commercially available system manufactured by Terr-Aqua Environmental Systems (only with longer contact time). The GAC system consisted of two GAC biofilter beds that operated in a cyclical manner. On a given day, the first GAC bed adsorbed methyl isobutyl ketone from a simulated waste airstream, while the second bed underwent regeneration; then on the next day, the second bed was in the adsorption mode while the first was regenerated.

Three bench-scale systems were used to compare the performance under three operating conditions: (1) ozone/ associated oxidant regeneration of a GAC biofilter system that was seeded with microorganisms from a field site, (2) a humid air regeneration of a seeded GAC biofilter, and (3) a humid air regeneration of an unseeded GAC biofilter. For the advanced oxidant regenerated GAC biofilter, a maximum removal efficiency of >95% was achieved with an empty bed contact time of 148 sec and an influent concentration of 125 ppm methyl isobutyl ketone, and 90–95% was achieved at 148-sec empty bed contact time and a 1150-ppm influent.     

Integrated Assessment Modeling of Atmospheric Pollutants in the Southern Appalachian Mountains. Part I: Hourly and Seasonal Ozone

Abstract

Recently, a comprehensive air quality modeling system was developed as part of the Southern Appalachians Mountains Initiative (SAMI) with the ability to simulate meteorology, emissions, ozone, size- and composition-resolved particulate matter, and pollutant deposition fluxes. As part of SAMI, the RAMS/EMS-95/URM-1ATM modeling system was used to evaluate potential emission control strategies to reduce atmospheric pollutant levels at Class I areas located in the Southern Appalachians Mountains. This article discusses the details of the ozone model performance and the methodology that was used to scale discrete episodic pollutant levels to seasonal and annual averages. The daily mean normalized bias and error for 1-hr and 8-hr ozone were within U.S. Environment Protection Agency guidance criteria for urban-scale modeling. The model typically showed a systematic overestimation for low ozone levels and an underestimation for high levels. Because SAMI was primarily interested in simulating the growing season ozone levels in Class I areas, daily and seasonal cumulative ozone exposure, as characterized by the W126 index, were also evaluated. The daily ozone W126 performance was not as good as the hourly ozone performance; however, the seasonal ozone W126 scaled up from daily values was within 17% of the observations at two typical Class I areas of the SAMI region. The overall ozone performance of the model was deemed acceptable for the purposes of SAMI’s assessment.     

An Evaluation of the Semi-VOST Method for Determining Emissions from Hazardous Waste Incinerators

The Semi-Volatile Organic Sampling Train method was investigated to determine its reliability and to determine the bias and precision of the method when used to determine emissions from hazardous waste incinerators. Experiments showed that the matrix and sampling variables usually involved in sampling emissions from a hazardous waste incinerator had no significant effect on the recovery of 11 different organic compounds. Significant losses of the sampled compounds can occur during sample preparation. The degree of loss appears to be directly related to the compounds, vapor pressure. These losses can be corrected for by adding deuterated surrogates to the sample and analyzing the surrogates along with the native compounds.

The bias determination was based on dynamic spiking of the sampling train with five deuterated organic compounds selected from Appendix VIII of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act regulations. The results show biases of from -1 ± 8 percent to -18 ± 27 percent for chlorinated and nonchlorinated compounds. Pyridine, a water-soluble compound, showed a larger bias of-29 ± 13 percent. Particular attention to the recovery of water soluble compounds is necessary to minimize bias in their determinations. Further work is needed to determine the reliability of laboratory-determined retention volumes that are used to determine sampling conditions.     

Addressing Public Fears Related to the Siting of Hazardous Waste Facilities

Recent catastrophic industrial accidents have left the public wary of most industrial facilities. Fearing illness and death from toxic releases, the public has opposed siting hazardous waste facilities in their locale. Associated with these concerns are fears of declining property values and a perceived reduction in the quality of life for a community. Recent political actions stemming from these fears have made siting these facilities an extremely unpopular and expensive process.

This paper presents a systematic, phased approach for performing a reliability and hazards analysis of a hazardous waste facility design. It also demonstrates how the results of a risk analysis can present an accurate "risk picture" of the facility for use in alleviating public fears. A typical analysis is outlined and methods that can be used to convey to the public the results of this type of risk analysis are explored.     

The Effects of Infiltration and Insulation on the Source Strengths and Indoor Air Pollution from Combustion Space Heating Appliances

Many energy conservation strategies for residences involve reducing house air exchange rates. Reducing the air exchange rate of a house can cause an increase in pollutant levels if there is an indoor pollution source and if the indoor pollutant source strength remains constant. However, if the indoor pollutant source strength can also be reduced, then it is possible to maintain or even improve indoor air quality. Increasing the insulation level of a house is a means of achieving energy conservation goals and, in addition, can reduce the need for space heating and thereby reduce the pollutant source strengths of combustion space heaters such as unvented kerosene space heaters, unvented gas space heaters, and wood stoves. In this paper, the indoor air quality trade-off between reduced infiltration and increased insulation in residences is investigated for combustion space heaters. Two similar residences were used for the experiment. One residence was used as a control and the other residence had infiltration and insulation levels modified. An unvented propane space heater was used as the source in this study. A model was developed to describe the dependence of both indoor air pollution levels and the appliance source strengths on house air exchange rates and house insulation levels. Model parameters were estimated by applying regression techniques to the data. Results show that indoor air pollution levels in houses with indoor combustion space heating pollution sources can be held constant (or lowered) by reducing the thermal conductance by an amount proportional to (or greater than) the reduction of the air exchange rate.     

Low NOx,High Efficiency Multistaged Burner: Fuel Oil Results

A multistaged combustion burner designed for in-furnace NO_x control and high combustion efficiency is being evaluated for high nitrogen content fuel and waste incineration application in a 0.6 MW package boiler simulator. A low NO_x precombustion chamber burner has been reduced in size by approximately a factor of two (from 600 to 250 ms first-stage residence time) and coupled with (1) air staging, resulting in a three-stage configuration, and (2) natural gas fuel staging, yielding up to four stolchlometric zones. Natural gas, doped with ammonia to yield a 5.8 percent fuel nitrogen content, and distillate fuel oil, doped with pyridine to yield a 2 percent fuel nitrogen content, were used to simulate high nitrogen content fuel/waste mixtures. The multistaged burner reduced NO emissions by 85 percent from emission levels from a conventional unstaged burner mounted on a commercial package bollerTA minimum NO emission level of 110 ppm was achieved in the fuel oil tests, from a level of 765 ppm for conventional firing. This is compared with a 160 ppm minimum NO level achieved in gaseous fuel tests, from an uncontrolled level of 1000 ppm. Boiler fuel staging, or reburnlng, appears to be superior to air staging for high combustion efficiency due to its minimal fuel-rich core and second flame front in the boiler.