A Comparison of Bayesian Methods for Uncertainty Analysis in Hydraulic and Hydrodynamic Modeling

We evaluate and compare the performance of Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC), Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) for uncertainty analysis in hydraulic and hydrodynamic modeling (HHM) studies. The methods are evaluated in a synthetic 1D wave routing exercise based on the diffusion wave model, and in a multidimensional hydrodynamic study based on the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code to simulate estuarine circulation processes in Weeks Bay, Alabama. Results show that BMC and MCMC provide similar estimates of uncertainty. The posterior parameter densities computed by both methods are highly consistent, as well as the calibrated parameter estimates and uncertainty bounds. Although some studies suggest that MCMC is more efficient than BMC, our results did not show a clear difference between the performance of the two methods. This seems to be due to the low number of model parameters typically involved in HHM studies, and the use of the same likelihood function. In fact, for these studies, the implementation of BMC results simpler and provides similar results to MCMC. The results of GLUE are, on the other hand, less consistent to the results of BMC and MCMC in both applications. The posterior probability densities tend to be flat and similar to the uniform priors, which can result in calibrated parameter estimates centered in the parametric space.     

Intervention of pentoxifylline on silica-induced inflammatory reaction and apoptosis

Pentoxifylline (PTX) is a clinically used drug mainly for peripheral circulation improvement. This drug also possesses potent anti-inflammatory effects and was found to inhibit acute lung injury induced by chemical agents in animal models. Since it is also a potential apoptosis enhancer, this study was designed to examine the influence of PTX on silica-induced lung inflammation and pulmonary leucocyte apoptosis. Male Wistar rats were intratracheally instilled with either silica dust suspension or saline and intraperitoneally injected with saline or PTX. These treatments continued for six weeks and all rats were then sacrificed to obtain bronchoalveolar lavage cells and lavage fluid. Data demonstrated that PTX attenuated silica-induced lung injury in the rat model and this attenuation may possibly be attributed to its role in the enhancement of pulmonary apoptosis. As a known clinically safe drug, PTX may thus have potential use in the treatment of human silicosis.     

Understanding the sources and composition of the incremental excess of fine particles across multiple sampling locations in one air shed

Well-designed health studies and the development of effective regulatory policies need to rely on an understanding of the incremental differences in particulate matter concentrations and their sources. Although only a limited number of studies have been conducted to examine spatial differences in sources to particulate matter within an air shed, routine monitoring data can be used to better understand these differences. Measurements from the US EPA Chemical Speciation Network （CSN） collected between 2002-2008 were analyzed to demonstrate the utility of regulatory data across three sites located within 100 km of each other. Trends in concentrations, source contribution, and incremental excesses across three sites were investigated using the Positive Matrix Factorization model. Similar yearly trends in chemical composition were observed across all sites, however, excesses of organic matter and elemental carbon were observed in the urban center that originated from local emissions of mobile sources and biomass buming. Secondary sulfate and secondary nitrate constituted over half of the PM2.5 with no spatial differences observed across sites. For these components, the excess of emissions from industrial sources could be directly quantified. This study demonstrates that CSN data from multiple sites can be successfully used to derive consistent source profiles and source contributions for regional pollution, and that CSN data can be used to quantify incremental differences in source contributions of across these sites. The analysis strategy can be used in other regions of the world to take advantage of existing ambient particulate matter monitoring data to better the understanding of spatial differences in source contributions within a given air shed.     

Early Vegetation Development on an Exposed Reservoir: Implications for Dam Removal

The 4-year drawdown of Horsetooth Reservoir, Colorado, for dam maintenance, provides a case study analog of vegetation response on sediment that might be exposed from removal of a tall dam. Early vegetation recovery on the exposed reservoir bottom was a combination of (1) vegetation colonization on bare, moist substrates typical of riparian zones and reservoir sediment of shallow dams and (2) a shift in moisture status from mesic to the xeric conditions associated with the pre-impoundment upland position of most of the drawdown zone. Plant communities changed rapidly during the first four years of exposure, but were still substantially different from the background upland plant community. Predictions from the recruitment box model about the locations of Populus deltoides subsp. monilifera (plains cottonwood) seedlings relative to the water surface were qualitatively confirmed with respect to optimum locations. However, the extreme vertical range of water surface elevations produced cottonwood seed regeneration well outside the predicted limits of drawdown rate and height above late summer stage. The establishment and survival of cottonwood at high elevations and the differences between the upland plant community and the community that had developed after four years of exposure suggest that vegetation recovery following tall dam removal will follow a trajectory very different from a simple reversal of the response to dam construction, involving not only long time scales of establishment and growth of upland vegetation, but also possibly decades of persistence of legacy vegetation established during the reservoir to upland transition.     

A Paleozoological Perspective on White-Tailed Deer (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Odocoileus virginianus texana</Emphasis>) Population Density and Body Size in Central Texas

Archaeological and paleontological datasets are used in conservation to add time-depth to ecology. In central Texas, several top carnivores including prehistoric Native American hunters have been extirpated or have had their historic ranges restricted, which has resulted in pest-level white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus texana) populations in some areas. Differences in body size of deer between prehistory and modernity are expected, given that a lack of predation likely has increased intraspecific competition for forage among deer, resulting in smaller body size today. In fact, modern deer from settings without harvest pressure are significantly smaller than those from harvested areas and from prehistoric deer. From a natural history perspective, this research highlights potential evolutionary causes and effects of top-predator removal on deer populations and related components of biological communities in central Texas.     

Passive flux meter measurement of water and nutrient flux in saturated porous media: bench-scale laboratory tests

The passive nutrient flux meter (PNFM) is introduced for simultaneous measurement of both water and nutrient flux through saturated porous media. The PNFM comprises a porous sorbent pre-equilibrated with a suite of alcohol tracers, which have different partitioning coefficients. Water flux was estimated based on the loss of loaded resident tracers during deployment, while nutrient flux was quantified based on the nutrient solute mass captured on the sorbent. An anionic resin, Lewatit 6328 A, was used as a permeable sorbent and phosphate (PO4(3-)) was the nutrient studied. The phosphate sorption capacity of the resin was measured in batch equilibration tests as 56 mg PO4(3-) g(-1), which was determined to be adequate capacity to retain PO4(3-) loads intercepted over typical PNFM deployment periods in most natural systems. The PNFM design was validated with bench-scale laboratory tests for a range of 9.8 to 28.3 cm d(-1) Darcy velocities and 6 to 43 h deployment durations. Nutrient and water fluxes measured by the PNFM averaged within 6 and 12% of the applied values, respectively, indicating that the PNFM shows promise as a tool for simultaneous measurement of water and nutrient fluxes.     

Mothers Against Drunk Driving (MADD): the first 25 years

Mothers Against Drunk Driving (MADD) has arguably been one of the most successful public-health grassroots citizen advocacy organizations in the United States in the past century. In 2005, MADD celebrated the 25th anniversary of its founding. Based on a national poll by the Gallup Organization in 2005, MADD is recognized by 94% of citizens. It is generally given credit for changing American attitudes toward drinking and driving. Since MADD's founding in 1980, alcohol-related traffic deaths in the United States have decreased from an estimated 30,000 to 16,694 in 2004, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. This article examines the growth of MADD since its founding and attempts to gauge its contribution to the public's understanding of the impaired-driving problem and to the reductions in alcohol-related highway deaths and injuries that have occurred in the first 25 years of its existence.     

Motorcycle helmet effect on a per-crash basis in Thailand and the United States

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effectiveness of motorcycle helmets seen in prospective on-the-street motorcycle accident investigations. The data are drawn from two detailed, in-depth studies of motorcycle accidents, in which trained investigators collected extensive accident evidence on-scene immediately after the crash. This article compares helmeted and unhelmeted motorcycle riders on a per-accident basis for fatality rates, the rate of serious (AIS > 2) brain injuries among survivors, or an outcome that involved either of the two. METHODS: Nine hundred motorcycle crashes in Los Angeles and 969 crashes in Thailand were investigated in detail at the accident scenes, including photos of vehicles, skids, damage, and sometimes the rider. Helmets were collected and injury information was obtained from riders and care providers. This evidence was then used to reconstruct collision events to identify speeds, precrash motions, collision contacts, injury causation, and helmet performance. RESULTS: In both studies, approximately 6% of riders were killed and 20-25% were hospitalized. Overall, unhelmeted riders were two to three times as likely to be killed, and three times as likely to suffer either death or survival with AIS > 2 brain injury. Unhelmeted survivors had three to four times as many AIS > 2 brain injuries as helmeted riders on a per-crash basis. Nearly 100% of riders with AIS > 4 somatic injuries died. Such injuries were 30% of Thailand fatalities and 57% of L.A. fatalities, but only about 2-3% of the overall accident population. Among the 97-98% of riders with AIS < 5 somatic injuries, helmet use could prevent about three-fourths of fatalities and brain injuries. CONCLUSIONS: Helmets were extremely effective in preventing brain injury and death in 97% of the accident population in less-than-extreme crashes. Helmet use cannot prevent all fatalities because many of those killed succumb to below-the-neck injuries that a helmet cannot prevent.     

"It's not that simple": A collaborative comparison of sea ice environments, their uses, observed changes, and adaptations in Barrow, Alaska, USA, and Clyde River, Nunavut, Canada

The Arctic environment, including sea ice, is changing. The impacts of these changes to Inuit and I?upiat ways of life vary from place to place, yet there are common themes as well. The study reported here involved an exchange of hunters, Elders, and others from Barrow, Alaska, USA, and Clyde River, Nunavut, Canada, as members of a larger research team that also included visiting scientists. Although the physical environments of Barrow and Clyde River are strikingly different, the uses of the marine environment by residents, including sea ice, had many common elements. In both locations, too, extensive changes have been observed in recent years, forcing local residents to respond in a variety of ways. Although generally in agreement or complementary to one another, scientific and indigenous knowledge of sea ice often reflect different perspectives and emphases. Making generalizations about impacts and responses is challenging and should therefore be approached with caution. Technology provides some potential assistance in adapting to changing sea ice, but by itself, it is insufficient and can sometimes have undesirable consequences. Reliable knowledge that can be applied under changing conditions is essential. Collaborative research and firsthand experience are critical to generating such new knowledge.