Statistical models of health risk due to microbial contamination of foods

Between 6 million and 33 million cases of food-related illness are estimated to occur in the United States each year, with about 5000 episodes resulting in death. Growing concerns about the safety of food prompted the National Food Safety Initiative of 1997, the goal of which is to reduce the incidence of illness caused by food-borne pathogens. A key component of the food safety initiative is the improvement of farm-to-table risk assessment capabilities, including the development of improved dose-response models for estimating risk. When sufficient data are available, allowable contamination levels of specific micro-organisms in food are established using dose-response models to predict risk at very low doses based on experimental data at much higher doses. This necessitates having reliable models for setting allowable exposures to food-borne pathogens. While only limited data on relatively few micro-organisms that occur in food are available at present for dose-response modeling and risk estimation, still none of the two-parameter models proposed so far, including the popular Beta-Poisson (BP) model, appears to be completely satisfactory for describing and fitting all of the present data (Holcomb et al., 1999). The Weibull–Gamma (WG) model is the only three-parameter model that has been proposed to date. In this paper, new competitive three-parameter models are derived, using a formulation that can be parameterized to represent statistical variation with respect to the dose of micro-organism received by the host and the hosts susceptibility to infection. Parameters of the models are estimated using the maximum likelihood method. Experimental data on several common microbial contaminants in food are used to illustrate the methodology.     

Estimating receptor sensitivity to spatial proximity of emissions sources

Spatial proximity of emissions sources to receptors may affect sensitivity to potential adverse human health effects. This research investigates whether receptor sensitivity to the location of emission sources can be utilized efficiently to minimize health risk in selecting sites for industrial enterprises, thermal electric stations, etc. A sensitivity function that is independent of the location of pre-existing emission sources is derived and applied to Minsk, Belarus. The function estimates exposures based on weather and climatic conditions as well as the distribution of population density at a given locality. Arraying prospective sites based on their sensitivity function magnitude provides a technique for minimizing health risk based on receptor sensitivity to the spatial proximity of atmospheric emissions sources.     

Geographic variability of Escherichia coli ribotypes from animals in Idaho and Georgia

Several genotypic methods have been developed for determining the host origin of fecal bacteria in contaminated waters. Some of these methods rely on a host origin database to identify environmental isolates. It is not well understood to what degree these host origin isolates are geographically variable (i.e., cosmopolitan or endemic). This is important because a geographically limited host origin database may or may not be universally applicable. The objective of our study was to use one genotypic method, ribotyping, to determine the geographic variability of the fecal bacterium, Escherichia coli, from one location in Idaho and three locations in Georgia for cattle (Bos taurus), horse (Equus caballus), swine (Sus scrofa), and chicken (Gallus gallus domesticus). A total of 568 fecal E. coli isolates from Kimberly, ID (125 isolates), Athens, GA (210 isolates), Brunswick, GA (102 isolates), and Tifton, GA (131 isolates), yielded 213 ribotypes. The percentage of ribotype sharing within an animal species increased with decreased distance between geographic locations for cattle and horses, but not for swine and chicken. When the E. coli ribotypes among the four host species were compared at one location, the percent of unshared ribotypes was 86, 89, 81, and 79% for Kimberly, Athens, Brunswick, and Tifton, respectively. These data suggest that there is good ribotype separation among host animal species at each location. The ability to match environmental isolates to a host origin database may depend on a large number of environmental and host origin isolates that ideally are not geographically separated.     

Matter, spacetime and the vacuum

We distinguish three historical and scientific views of matter, spacetime, and the relationship between them: the absolute approach of Newton, the relational approach most often associated with Mach, and a third, geometrical approach which inspired Einstein and continues to drive efforts toward a unified theory of fundamental interactions today. Which is correct? We suggest that this is, to a large extent, an "ill-posed question," reminiscent of the wave/particle debate in earlier times. The boundary between matter and spacetime is no longer easy to draw, and it is likely that they are complementary aspects of the same reality. There is no clearer illustration of this than the modern view of the vacuum. We review the importance of this concept in cosmology, and explore the extent to which the old idea of an "empty" vacuum might still be maintained. If the real cosmological vacuum is far from empty, as observations now suggest, then it may be possible to achieve an even simpler goal: a Universe with a net energy of zero.     

ON‐FARM WATER CONSERVATION PRACTICES IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA1

ABSTRACT: In southern Alberta, as elsewhere, pressures on limited water supplies are increasing. Not surprisingly, a great deal of attention has been focused on irrigated agriculture, which accounts for the largest share of water consumed in the region. In order to meet broadly accepted water conservation goals, some commentators have suggested that irrigation water use should be metered and that irrigators should be charged based on the amount of water used. An alternative proposal would have water management authorities rely upon the perceived adaptability of irrigators. This paper offers a perspective on the willingness of irrigators to conserve water. Based on a survey of 183 irrigation farmers conducted over the summer and early fall of 1998, we found that irrigators are generally aware of the need to conserve water and soil moisture, and that a variety of water conserving strategies were being employed. Water saving technologies specific to irrigation agriculture were less widely adopted. The findings suggest that there is considerable potential to reduce the amount of water consumed by the irrigation sector through increased efficiency, but that change will be limited if current economic circumstances and institutional arrangements persist.     

UTILIZATION OF LANDSCAPE INDICATORS TO MODEL POTENTIAL PATHOGEN IMPAIRED WATERS1

ABSTRACT: Many water bodies within the United States are contaminated by non‐point source (NPS) pollution, which is defined as those materials posing a threat to water quality arising from a number of individual sources and diffused through hydrologic processes. One such NPS pollutant that is of critical concern are pathogens derived from animal wastes, including humans. The potential presence of pathogens is identified by testing the water for fecal conform, a bacteria also associated with animal wastes. Water contaminated by animal wastes are most often associated with urban and agricultural areas, thus it is postulated that by utilizing land cover indicators, those water bodies that may be at risk of fecal coliform contamination may be identified. This study utilizes land cover information derived from the Multi‐Resolution Land Characterization (MRLC) project to analyze fecal coliform contamination in South Carolina. Also utilized are 14 digit hydro‐logic unit code (HUC) watersheds of the state, a digital elevation model, and test point data stating whether fecal coliform levels exceeded State Water Quality Standards. Proportions of the various land covers are identified within the individual watersheds and then analyzed using a logistic regression. The results reveal that watersheds with large proportions of urban land cover and agriculture on steep slopes had a very high probability of being impaired. (KEY TERMS: Geographic Information Systems; land use planning; nonpoint source pollution; statistical analysis; water quality; watershed management.)     

PM2.5 chemical source profiles for vehicle exhaust, vegetative burning, geological material, and coal burning in Northwestern Colorado during 1995

PM_2.5 (particles with aerodynamic diameters less than 2.5 μm) chemical source profiles applicable to speciated emissions inventories and receptor model source apportionment are reported for geological material, motor vehicle exhaust, residential coal (RCC) and wood combustion (RWC), forest fires, geothermal hot springs; and coal-fired power generation units from northwestern Colorado during 1995. Fuels and combustion conditions are similar to those of other communities of the inland western US. Coal-fired power station profiles differed substantially between different units using similar coals, with the major difference being lack of selenium in emissions from the only unit that was equipped with a dry limestone sulfur dioxide (SO₂) scrubber. SO₂ abundances relative to fine particle mass emissions in power plant emissions were seven to nine times higher than hydrogen sulfide (H₂S) abundances from geothermal springs, and one to two orders of magnitude higher than SO₂ abundances in RCC emissions, implying that the SO₂ abundance is an important marker for primary particle contributions of non-aged coal-fired power station contributions. The sum of organic and elemental carbon ranged from 1% to 10% of fine particle mass in coal-fired power plant emissions, from 5% to 10% in geological material, >50% in forest fire emissions, >60% in RWC emissions, and >95% in RCC and vehicle exhaust emissions. Water-soluble potassium (K⁺) was most abundant in vegetative burning profiles. K⁺/K ratios ranged from 0.1 in geological material profiles to 0.9 in vegetative burning emissions, confirming previous observations that soluble potassium is a good marker for vegetative burning.     

Combined steam distillation and electrochemical peroxidation (ECP) treatment of river sediment contaminated by PCBs

A combined treatment process utilizing steam distillation followed by electrochemical peroxidation (ECP) has been utilized to remove >90% of the polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in St. Lawrence River sediment and destroy 95% of the PCBs recovered in the condensate. 2 l of condensate were collected by boiling 500 grams of sediment containing 4.3 mg PCBs. Most of the PCBs (82.3%) were recovered as a small volume (<1 ml) of yellow oil floating on the condensate and coating glassware surfaces. The aqueous phase PCBs (182 μg/l) were destroyed (95%) by three sequential ECP treatments at 16.8°C and pH 5, utilizing 1 ml of H₂O₂ (3%) and periodically reversed current (0.75–1.0 A @ 10 volts). Oxidation is primarily mediated by hydroxyl radicals produced by the reaction of hydrogen peroxide with electrochemically generated ferrous iron (Fenton's reagent). This work suggests steam extraction, in combination with advanced oxidation technologies, provides an effective treatment strategy for contaminated solids.     

Understanding and predicting ecological dynamics: are major surprises inevitable?

Ecological surprises, substantial and unanticipated changes in the abundance of one or more species that result from previously unsuspected processes, are a common outcome of both experiments and observations in community and population ecology. Here, we give examples of such surprises along with the results of a survey of well-established field ecologists, most of whom have encountered one or more surprises over the course of their careers. Truly surprising results are common enough to require their consideration in any reasonable effort to characterize nature and manage natural resources. We classify surprises as dynamic-, pattern-, or intervention-based, and we speculate on the common processes that cause ecological systems to so often surprise us. A long-standing and still growing concern in the ecological literature is how best to make predictions of future population and community dynamics. Although most work on this subject involves statistical aspects of data analysis and modeling, the frequency and nature of ecological surprises imply that uncertainty cannot be easily tamed through improved analytical procedures, and that prudent management of both exploited and conserved communities will require precautionary and adaptive management approaches.     

Genetic variation in defense chemistry in wild cabbages affects herbivores and their endoparasitoids

Populations of wild Brassica oleracea L. grow naturally along the Atlantic coastlines of the United Kingdom and France. Over a very small spatial scale (i.e., <15 km) these populations differ in the expression of the defensive compounds, glucosinolates (GS). Thus far, very few studies have examined interactions between genetically distinct populations of a wild plant species and associated consumers in a multitrophic framework. Here, we compared the development of a specialist (Pieris rapae) and a generalist (Mamestra brassicae) insect herbivore and their endoparasitoids (Cotesia rubecula and Microplitis mediator, respectively) on three wild populations and one cultivar of B. oleracea under controlled greenhouse conditions. Herbivore performance was differentially affected by the plant population on which they were reared. Plant population influenced only development time and pupal mass in P. rapae, whereas plant population also had a dramatic effect on survival of M. brassicae. Prolonged development time in P. rapae corresponded with high levels of the indole GS, neoglucobrassicin, whereas reduced survival in M. brassicae coincided with high levels of the aliphatic GS, gluconapin and sinigrin. The difference between the two species can be explained by the fact that the specialist P. rapae is adapted to feed on plants containing GS and has evolved an effective detoxification system against aliphatic GS. The different B. oleracea populations also affected development of the endoparasitoids. Differences in food-plant quality for the hosts were reflected in adult size in C. rubecula and survival in M. mediator, and further showed that parasitoid performance is also affected by herbivore diet.