Development of a probabilistic blood lead prediction model

A partially probabilistic blood lead prediction model has been developed, based on the US Environmental Protection Agency integrated exposure-uptake-biokinetic blood lead model (IEUBK model). This study translated the IEUBK model into a spreadsheet format. The uptake submodel incorporates uncertainty distributions for exposure and bioavailability parameters. The biokinetic submodel is duplicated with a table incorporating partitioning and decay of lead levels in the body. As a case study, the probabilistic model is applied to a lead exposure scenario involving a former smelter site in Sandy, Utah. The probabilistic model produces less biased estimates of means and standard deviations than the deterministic model. Parameter uncertainty is propagated in the model by the use of Monte Carlo simulation. Thus, sensitivity analysis is possible, and driving variables can be determined.     

Predation risk,food deprivation and non-random mating by size in the stream water strider,Aquarius remigis

Summary Non-random mating by size (NRMS) plays a central role in the study of sexual selection and the evolution of mating systems. Theory suggests that NRMS should be influenced by conflicting demands (e.g., predation risk, hunger); few experimental studies, however, have addressed these effects. We used a factorial experiment to examine the influence of predatory green sunfish and food deprivation on NRMS in male and female stream water striders, Aquarius remigis. As predicted by theory, food deprivation decreased the large-male mating advantage. The influence of predation risk, however, went against existing theory; that is, risk increased the large male mating advantage. The degree of large-male mating advantage was negatively related to a measure of the rate of male harassment of females. A behavioral mechanism that can explain these patterns emphasizes the contrasting effects of different competing demands on male harassment rates, female resistance and the role of male size in overcoming female resistance. Females usually resist male mating attempts. Successful mating occurs when males overcome female resistance. If harassment rates (of females by males) are low, larger males have a mating advantage over smaller males perhaps because females resist heavily and thus only larger males can overcome female resistance. If, however, male harassment rates are very high, female resistance might be swamped; mating should then be more random with respect to male size. Food deprivation increases gerrid activity and thus increases harassment rates which should then reduce NRMS. In contrast, risk decreases gerrid activity, thus decreasing harassment rates and increasing NRMS. Females did not show significant NRMS. Females did, however, show a pattern of change in NRMS that is consistent with male choice for larger females. Correspondence to: A. Sih     

Maximization of foraging efficiency and resource defense by group retrieval in the ant Formica schaufussi

Summary Workers of the ant Formica schaufussi forage as individuals and cooperate in groups to retrieve arthropod prey. In 2 sample years, group-transported prey were on average 6.8 and 4.7 times heavier than individually retrieved items, and the average loading ratios of groups were greater than the loading ratios of single foragers. Retrieval group size was adjusted to prey size, and prey transport velocity for individuals and groups tended to decrease with increasing prey weight. The efficiency of individual and group retrieval, estimated from calculations of the prey delivery rate to the nest (PDR) achieved by each foraging mode, varied as a function of prey size. Individual retrieval maximized PDR at a prey weight of 19.5 mg, and group transport maximized PDR at 190 mg. Although the PDR maxima of an individual in a group and a solitary forager were approximately equal, depending on prey size, group transport may maximize foraging efficiency. Group transport also decreased interference competition from sympatric ant species. Group-transported prey having a greater likelihood of successful retrieval were within the size range of prey that maximized foraging efficiency. Transport group size appeared to be more important in prey defense than in increasing prey transport velocity, suggesting an important role of group size in competitive ability.Offprint requests to: J.F.A. Traniello     

Flow Dynamics in Eccentrically Rotating Flasks Used for Dispersant Effectiveness Testing

The evaluation of dispersant effectiveness used for oil spills is commonly done using tests conducted in laboratory flasks. We used a Hot Wire Anemometer (HWA) to characterize mixing dynamics in the Swirling Flask (SF) and the Baffled Flask (BF), the latter is being considered by the EPA to replace the prior to test dispersant effectiveness in the laboratory. Five rotation speeds of the orbital shaker carrying the flasks were considered, Ω = 50, 100, 150, 175 and 200 rpm. The radial and azimuthal water speeds were measured for each Ω. It was found that the flow in the SF is, in general, two-dimensional changing from horizontal at low Ω to axi-symmetric at high Ω. The flow in the BF appeared to be three-dimensional at all rotation speeds. This indicates that the BF is more suitable for representing the (inherently) 3-D flow at sea. In the SF, the speeds and energy dissipation rates ɛ increased gradually as the rotation speed increased. Those in the BF increased sharply at rotation speeds greater than 150 rpm. At 200 rpm, the Kolmogorov scale (i.e., size of smallest eddies) was about 250 and 50 μm in the SF and BF, respectively. Noting that the observed droplet sizes of dispersed oils range from 50 to 400 μm (hence most of it is less than 250 μm), one concludes that the mixing in the SF (even at 200 rpm) is not representative of the vigorous mixing occurring at sea.     

Leisure/Labor Tradeoffs: The Backward-Bending Labor Supply in Fisheries

Economists have understood that the open-access nature of fishing grounds can cause the long-run fishery supply to bend backward. There is also increasing speculation that fishermen respond to falling output price either by increasing or decreasing effort, depending on the circumstances. This suggests a short-run backward-bending supply of fishing labor. A dynamic, utility-theoretic model of fishermen's behavior is developed to address this possibility. The model highlights both contemporaneous and intertemporal trade-offs between labor and leisure. The model is tested and the results indicate that the short-run labor supply in fisheries may exhibit backward-bending properties. In addition, changes in current prices may trigger changes in expectations of future prices, causing potentially greater counterintuitive behavior. These results challenge many traditional regulatory strategies (e.g., output taxes) that address problems of open access.     

Green leaf volatiles enhance sex attractant pheromone of the tobacco budworm,Heliothis virescens (Lep.: Noctuidae)

Summary Components of the green leaf volatile complex (Z-3-hexenyl acetate andE-2-hexenyl acetate) were shown to enhance responses of tobacco budworm,Heliothis virescens, males to the sex attractant pheromone of conspecific females in the field. The results are discussed with regard to green leaf volatiles which enhance the attractant pheromone of a cohabiting species, and serve as attractants of a parasitoid of conspecific larvae.     

Systemic retention of ingested cantharidin by frogs

Summary Frogs(Rana pipiens) fed on blister beetles (Meloidae) or cantharidin, retain cantharidin systemically. After cessation of feeding, they void the compound relatively quickly. Systemic cantharidin does not protect frogs against ectoparasitic feeding by leeches(Hirudo medicinalis) or predation by snakes(Nerodia sipedon). As suggested by our data, and from reports in the early literature, ingestion of cantharidin-containing frogs can pose a health threat to humans.Paper no. 95 of the seriesDefense Mechanisms of Arthropods; no. 94 is LaMunyon & Eisner, Psyche (in press)     

Why do honey bees have dialects?

Summary The indication of distance in the honey bee dance-the number of meters signified by each waggle-varies by more than a factor of ten among geographic races. Experiments in which artificial swarms were offered a choice of nest boxes indicate that A. m. carnica, the long-distance German race, clearly prefers larger and more distant cavities than the intermediate-dialect Italian race, ligustica. From these results on preferred dispersal distance and cavity size, combined with a general trend among the many races of honey bee toward dialects adapted for indicating longer distances occurring in colder latitudes, I propose that the dialect is probably an adaptation to each race's typical foraging range. That range is in large part a necessary consequence of population size, which in turn is determined by the thermal load imposed on clusters by winters in different climates.     

Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr. mortality will impact hydrologic processes in southern Appalachian forest ecosystems.

Eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr.) is one of the principal riparian and cove canopy species in the southern Appalachian Mountains. Throughout its range, eastern hemlock is facing potential widespread mortality from the hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA). If HWA-induced eastern hemlock mortality alters hydrologic function, land managers will be challenged to develop management strategies that restore function or mitigate impacts. To estimate the impact that the loss of this forest species will have on the hydrologic budget, we quantified and modeled transpiration over a range of tree sizes and environmental conditions. We used heat dissipation probes, leaf-level gas-exchange measurements, allometric scaling, and time series modeling techniques to quantify whole-tree and leaf-level transpiration (E(L)) of eastern hemlock. We monitored trees ranging from 9.5 to 67.5 cm in diameter along a riparian corridor in western North Carolina, USA during 2004 and 2005. Maximum rates of daily tree water use varied by diameter and height, with large trees transpiring a maximum of 178-186 kg H2O x tree(-1) x d(-1). Values of E(L) could be predicted from current and lagged environmental variables. We forecasted eastern hemlock E(L) for inventoried stands and estimated a mean annual transpiration rate of 63.3 mm/yr for the hemlock component, with 50% being transpired in the winter and spring. In typical southern Appalachian stands, eastern hemlock mortality would thus reduce annual stand-level transpiration by approximately 10% and reduce winter and spring stand-level transpiration by approximately 30%. Eastern hemlock in the southern Appalachians has two distinct ecohydrological roles: an evergreen tree that maintains year-round transpiration rates and a riparian tree that has high transpiration rates in the spring. No other native evergreen in the southern Appalachians will likely fill the ecohydrological role of eastern hemlock if widespread mortality occurs. With the loss of this species, we predict persistent increases in discharge, decreases in the diurnal amplitude of streamflow, and increases in the width of the variable source area.     

Sampling design trade-offs in occupancy studies with imperfect detection: examples and software.

Researchers have used occupancy, or probability of occupancy, as a response or state variable in a variety of studies (e.g., habitat modeling), and occupancy is increasingly favored by numerous state, federal, and international agencies engaged in monitoring programs. Recent advances in estimation methods have emphasized that reliable inferences can be made from these types of studies if detection and occupancy probabilities are simultaneously estimated. The need for temporal replication at sampled sites to estimate detection probability creates a trade-off between spatial replication (number of sample sites distributed within the area of interest/inference) and temporal replication (number of repeated surveys at each site). Here, we discuss a suite of questions commonly encountered during the design phase of occupancy studies, and we describe software (program GENPRES) developed to allow investigators to easily explore design trade-offs focused on particularities of their study system and sampling limitations. We illustrate the utility of program GENPRES using an amphibian example from Greater Yellowstone National Park, U.S.A.