A DISTRIBUTED DYNAMIC WATERSHED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: A distributed watershed model was developed to mathematically simulate overland and channel flow for a single-event storm. The modeled watersheds in the study were subdivided into rectangular grid elements. All hydrologically significant parameters, such as land slope, rainfall and precipitation excess, were assumed to be uniform within each element. The Green-Ampt method was adopted to generate precipitation excess for each element during the simulation period. A two-dimensional diffusion wave model was used for overland flow routing and an iterative Alternative Direction Implicit scheme was used to solve the simultaneous overland flow equations. Once the overland flow became inflow to the channel, a one-dimensional dynamic wave flood routing technique, based on a four-point, implicit, non-linear finite difference solution of the St. Venant equation of unsteady flow, was applied. A limited number of comparisons were made between simulated and observed hydrographs for areas of about one square mile. Given the appropriate parameters, the model was able to accurately simulate runoff for single-event storms. This paper describes a distributed watershed model developed to simulate overland and channel flow. Comparisons were made between simulated and observed hydrographs for three watersheds. The model was able to accurately simulate the runoff for single-event storms using 61-m by 61-m (200 ft by 200 ft) watershed grid elements.     

Island biogeographical theory: Can it be used to predict lotic recovery rates?

Classic island biogeographic theory predicts that equilibrium will be reached when immigration and extinction rates are equal. These rates are modified by number of species in source area, number of intermediate islands, distance to recipient island, and size of intermediate islands. This general model has been variously modified and proposed to be a stochastic process with minimal competitive interaction or heavily deterministic. Predictive models of recovery (regardless of the end point chosen) have been based on the appropriateness of the MacArthur-Wilson models. Because disturbance frequency, severity, and intensity vary in their effect on community dynamics, we propose that disturbance levels should first be defined before evaluating the applicability of island biogeographical theory. Thus, we suggest a classification system of four disturbance levels based on recovery patterns by primary and secondary succession and faunal organization by primary (invasion of vacant areas) and secondary (remnant of previous community remains) processes. Level 1A disturbances completely destroy communities with no upstream or downstream sources of colonizers, while some component of near surface interstitial or hyporheic flora and fauna survive level 1B disturbances. Recovery has been reported to take from five years to longer than 25 years, when most invading colonists do not have an aerial form. Level 2 disturbances destroy the communities but leave upstream and downstream colonization sources (level 2A) and, sometimes, a hyporheic pool of colonizers (level 2B). Recovery studies have indicated primary succession and faunal structuring patterns (2A) with recovery times of 90–400 days or secondary succession and faunal structuring patterns (2B) with recovery times of 40–250 days. Level 3 disturbances result in reduction in species abundance and diversity along a stream reach; level 4 disturbances result in reduction of abundance and diversity in discrete patches. Both disturbance types lead to secondary succession and secondary faunal organization. Recovery rates can be quite rapid, varying from less than 10 days to 100 or more days. We suggest that island biogeographical models seem appropriate to recovery by secondary processes after level 3 and 4 disturbances, where competition may be an important organizing factor, while models of numerical abundance and resource tracking are probably of better use where community development is by primary succession (levels 1 and 2). Development of predictive recovery models requires research that addresses a number of fundamental questions. These include the role of hydrologic patterns on colonization dynamics, the role of nonaerial colonizers in recovery from level 1 disturbances, and assessment of the impact of changes in the order of invasion by colonizers of varying energetic efficiencies. Finally, we must be able to assemble these data and determine whether information that guides community organization at one level of disturbance can provide insights into colonization dynamics at other levels.     

An embryogenic model to explain cytogenetic inconsistencies observed in chorionic villus versus fetal tissue

While the fetus and placenta have a common ancestry, chorionic villus tissue does not always reflect fetal genotype. Data are presented from 15 CVS subjects in whom cytogenetic inconsistencies were observed when comparing (1) cultured chorionic villi, (2) direct chromosome preparations of intact villi, and (3) cultured fetal tissue. Embryogenic models are presented to explain these discrepancies. Mosaicism confined to direct chromosome preparations was the most commonly observed inconsistency. This can be explained by postzygotic non-disjunction limited to cytotrophoblast. In all but one instance, the abnormal cell line was limited to the placenta, with the normal cell line reflecting fetal genotype. Analysis of direct chromosome preparations from multiple individually processed villus fragments may be helpful in recognizing mosaicism confined to the placenta. While both direct chromosome preparations and villus cultures can be misleading, the latter are more likely to reflect fetal genetic status since they are derived from the extraembryonic mesoderm.     

活性氮:多多益善?

尺度和范围 1790年,Jean Claude Chaptal将元素周期表中的第14个元素命名为"氮"[1].两个世纪后,氮在生物地球化学过程中的作用和其作为一种必需营养元素的重大功能得到了很好的理解.我们知道,人类(以及植物和动物)的生存离不开氮;大气中大量存在的氮气(N2)是植物和动物不能直接利用的一种化学形式;只有少数特殊的微生物能够将大气中的氮转化("固定")为植物、动物可以利用的活性氮(活性氮)[2];另一小群体的微生物能够将活性氮转化(反硝化)为氮气.     

Disease and colony foundation in the dampwood termite Zootermopsis angusticollis: The survival advantage of nestmate pairs

To determine the impact of inbreeding and outbreeding on disease resistance and survival during colony foundation, nestmate (NM) and non-nestmate (NON) primary reproductives of the dampwood termite Zootermopsis angusticollis were exposed to a single or double dose of conidia of the entomopathogenic fungus Metarhizium anisopliae. Male and female primary reproductive pairs originating from the same parent colony had higher survivorship than NON pairs in control and conidia-exposure treatments. The survival advantage of NM primary reproductives increased with the intensity of pathogen challenge and was significantly greater in the single- and double-dose treatments than in the controls. Although NM pairs had significantly lower mortality than NON pairs, the survivorship of colonies stabilized as they matured and inbred and outbred colonies did not differ in offspring production. These results demonstrate that colony foundation by NON male and female reproductives may have a disease-related survival cost during this critical phase of their life cycle. There may also be a cost associated with lower offspring heterozygosity, but in the first generation this does not appear to significantly impact colony growth.     

First-trimester amniotic fluid and extraembryonic coelomic fluid acetylcholinesterase electrophoresis

Acetylcholinesterase (AChE) gel electrophoresis was performed on samples of amniotic fluid and extraembryonic coelomic fluid obtained by high resolution transvaginal ultrasound-guided amniocentesis from 38 women between 8 and 12 weeks of pregnancy. AChE was positive in 33 per cent (12/36) of the amniotic fluid samples; the percentage of positive results decreased as gestation advanced. AChE was positive in 32 per cent (9/28) of the extraembryonic coelomic fluid samples. In 81 per cent (21/26) of matched samples, the AChE results were identical in the two fluids. Amniotic fluid and extraembryonic coelomic fluid AChE electrophoresis cannot be used to diagnose neural tube defects prior to 12 weeks of gestation.     

Repeat maternal serum testing in multiple marker down's syndrome screening programmes

The effect of repeat testing in maternal serum multiple marker screening for Down's syndrome was estimated using samples stored in an antenatal serum bank. Human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) and unconjugated oestriol (uE₃) levels were determined in 142 pairs of routinely collected samples which had already been tested for alpha-fetoprotein (AFP). For each marker, about two-thirds of the pairs of values were within 20 per cent of each other and most were within 40 per cent. A multivariate Gaussian model was used to estimate the detection and false-positive rates for different repeat testing policies. A policy of repeat testing those with a high risk of a Down's syndrome term pregnancy given age and marker levels would reduce the false-positive rate but there would also be a reduction in the detection rate. For example, using all three markers and a 1 in 250 cut-off risk, the estimated false-positive rate would fall from 5·3 to 3·8 per cent but the detection rate would decrease from 58 to 55 per cent. A policy of repeating those with either high or borderline risks would produce a modest improvement in screening efficiency. Repeating the 11 per cent with a risk exceeding 1 in 500 yields an estimated false-positive rate of 5·0 per cent and a detection rate of 60 per cent. A policy of selective repeat testing is not recommended as it would not substantially improve screening efficiency. Nonetheless, if a repeat test has been performed, the parameters given in this paper will enable an unbiased estimate of the Down's syndrome risk to be calculated for individual women.