Confronting Management Challenges in Highly Uncertain Natural Resource Systems: a Robustness–Vulnerability Trade-off Approach

This paper presents a framework for the study of policy implementation in highly uncertain natural resource systems in which uncertainty cannot be characterized by probability distributions. We apply the framework to parametric uncertainty in the traditional Gordon–Schaefer model of a fishery to illustrate how performance can be sacrificed (traded-off) for reduced sensitivity and hence increased robustness, with respect to model parameter uncertainty. With sufficient data, our robustness–vulnerability analysis provides tools to discuss policy options. When less data are available, it can be used to inform the early stages of a learning process. Several key insights emerge from this analysis: (1) the classic optimal control policy can be very sensitive to parametric uncertainty, (2) even mild robustness properties are difficult to achieve for the simple Gordon–Schaefer model, and (3) achieving increased robustness with respect to some parameters (e.g., biological parameters) necessarily results in increased sensitivity (decreased robustness) with respect to other parameters (e.g., economic parameters). We thus illustrate fundamental robustness–vulnerability trade-offs and the limits to robust natural resource management. Finally, we use the framework to explore the effects of infrequent sampling and delays on policy performance.     

A Method for Ensemble Wildland Fire Simulation

An ensemble simulation system that accounts for uncertainty in long-range weather conditions and two-dimensional wildland fire spread is described. Fuel moisture is expressed based on the energy release component, a US fire danger rating index, and its variation throughout the fire season is modeled using time series analysis of historical weather data. This analysis is used to characterize the seasonal trend in ERC, autocorrelation of residuals, and daily standard deviation and stochastically generate artificial time series of afternoon fuel moisture. Daily wind speed and direction are sampled stochastically from joint probabilities of historical wind speed and direction for the date range of the fire simulation period. Hundreds or thousands of fire growth simulations are then performed using the synthetic fire weather sequences. The performance of these methods is evaluated in terms of the number of ensemble member simulations, one- versus two-dimensional fire spread simulations, and comparison with results from 91 fires occurring from 2007 to 2009. Simulations were found to be in consistent agreement with observations, but trends indicate that the ensemble average of simulated fire sizes were consistently larger than actual fires whereas the farthest extent burned by fires was underestimated.     

Numerical Simulations of Wind Induced Particle Contamination in Gypsum Landfill Surroundings

The contribution presents numerical simulation of gypsum particles, lifting from a gypsum landfill. First, particle characteristics are presented, resulting from different technologies of gypsum depositing. Next, a laboratory experiment parameter validation tests are described, which served as a means of determination of mass flow of particles from the landfill. The background of the numerical simulations, used in the assessment of landfill impact on the environment, is also described. Simulations consist of two parts: simulation of a long term impact of the particles on the surrounding area, performed by implementation of the Gaussian dispersion model based computer code ISC3, and second, a CFD based simulation for assessing the flow and mass concentration fields in the vicinity of the landfill for several pre-selected flow cases. The results of both computational approaches are presented and compared. In the conclusions, a relation of the simulation results with existing environmental pollution levels is made, and recommendations for landfill management are drawn.     

Hydraulics Analysis for Groundwater Flow Through Permeable Reactive Barriers

Groundwater flow modelling is an important tool in simulating and predicting hydraulic behaviour of groundwater transporting in the domain consisted of groundwater flow zone (aquifer) and permeable reactive barriers (PRBs). The aquifer regime is modelled using the Darcy equation, whereas PRBs are simulated by the Brinkman equation. By combining the above equations, the present paper is devoted to analyse the effect of permeability of aquifer (K _aq ) and reactive media (K _p ), groundwater flow velocity, and barrier size as well as assembled style of barriers on key barrier design parameter, such as the hydraulic capture zone width. The simulations indicate that the capture zone width generally decreases with a decrease in K _p at a given K _aq ; however, there is relatively little decrease in capture zone width when the K _p of freshly installed reactive media is roughly 10 times higher than the K _aq . For a given barrier system, the absolute capture zone width increases with an increase in barrier size, whereas the increment of relative capture zone width decreases dramatically. Although the capture zone width remains relatively unchanged as groundwater flow velocity increases, it results in a shorter residence time in the reactive media that may require greater barrier thickness so that contaminant levels can be reduced to regulatory limits. In addition, the effect of parallel barriers interaction on the capture zone width should be incorporated into the design. The present paper is based on the continuous reactive barrier and homogeneous barrier system. Similar methods can be used to analyse the hydrodynamics of funnel-and-gate system and heterogeneous settings by the appropriate modification.     

Multiple kinetic Langmuir modeling to predict the environmental behaviour of As(v) in soils

A soil with a relatively high Fe content (2.82% [w/w]) was loaded for up to one year with As(v) by equilibrating it with a solution containing 1000 mg l(-1) As(v) at a soil mass-to-solution ratio of 0.1 kg l(-1). The incorporation of As(v) into the soil and its distribution over the soil phases were monitored by sampling at strategic time intervals using an operationally defined five-step sequential extraction procedure (Wenzel et al., Anal. Chim. Acta, 2001, 436, 309) and subsequent As measurement. A multiple kinetic Langmuir model was developed to retrieve the dynamic parameters (adsorption and desorption rate constants, capacities and Langmuir equilibrium constants) for each of the soil phases by numerical fitting of the experimental adsorption data to the model. Under the equilibration conditions used the adsorption rate constants for all five operationally defined soil phases were very similar but the desorption rate constants decreased by a factor of ca. 150 from soil phase 1 (non-specifically sorbed As) to 5 (residual phases). This implies that As(v) incorporation "deeper" into the soil leads to stronger binding which is associated with the Langmuir equilibrium constants (adsorption rate constants/desorption rate constants). Equilibration of the soil with As(v) was complete in ca. 10 days with As(v) predominantly bound to soil phase 2 (specifically sorbed As) and soil phase 3 (amorphous and poorly crystalline hydrous oxides). X-Ray absorption spectroscopy techniques revealed that these binding characteristics may be related to adsorption of As(v) on Si- and/or Al-containing structures and natural hydrous iron oxide (HFO) surface sites, respectively. Since the model is independent of the initial As(v) concentration in the solution and the soil mass-to-solution ratio, the behaviour of the thus characterized soil-As(v) system can be predicted for a range of conditions. Simulations showed that in an accidental As(v) spill the soil studied would actively scavenge As(v) by instantaneous adsorption onto all soil phases followed by redistribution of As(v) from weaker binding sites to stronger ones over time.     

Lead contamination in surface soil on roads from used lead–acid battery recycling in Dong Mai,Northern Vietnam

Used lead–acid battery (ULAB) recycling has caused numerous health and environmental issues in developing countries. Surface soil pollution from ULAB recycling activities has been linked with elevated levels of lead in human blood. We measured surface soil lead in and surrounding the ULAB recycling village of Hung Yen in northern Vietnam in 2011, 2013, and 2014. The data were analyzed statistically and discussed with respect to distance from the contamination source, year of measurement, contamination pathway, and countermeasures against the contamination. Transportation routes from the smelter or collection site displayed the greatest concentration of surface soil lead (median 6400–10,000 mg/kg). Surface soil lead decreased significantly with distance along the road from the ULAB recycling site, although such a decrease was not observed for rice fields, agricultural roads, or garden soil. Re-suspension and adherence by traffic were identified as key pollution pathways. Distance from the source, covering of the surface of roads, construction of walls, and position relative to the source were shown to be the most effective factors in the reduction of surface soil lead pollution. Application of a combination of these measures should result in improvement in the health of residents.     

Modelling of a Capillary Rise Height of Biochar by Modified Lucas–Washburn Equation

Environmental Modeling & Assessment - Lucas–Washburn equation is a fundamental expression which is used to describe capillary rise in porous materials according to average pore radius,...     

Cloning of urea transporters from the kidneys of two batoid elasmobranchs: evidence for a common elasmobranch urea transporter isoform

One of the two phloretin-sensitive, facilitated urea transporters identified from the kidneys of the myliobatiform, euryhaline elasmobranch, Dasyatis sabina, a 379 amino acid protein ([D. sabina]strUT-2), was very similar to the 380 amino acid isoform (shUT) present in the kidney of the squaliform, dogfish shark, Squalus acanthias (a species that can be considered marginally euryhaline since it utilizes upper estuarine, as well as ocean habitats). To test the proposal that this isoform is a conserved urea transporter (UT) expressed in the kidneys of diverse elasmobranchs, UTs were cloned from the kidneys of a rajiform elasmobranch, the stenohaline skate, Leucoraja ocellata and another dasyatid stingray, the marginally euryhaline, Dasyatis say. Utilizing 5′/3′ RACE, a 2,060 nt cDNA that encoded a phloretin-sensitive, 378 amino acid skate urea transporter ([L. ocellata]skUT-2) and a 1,683 nt cDNA that encoded a stingray 379 amino acid UT ([D. say]strUT-2) were obtained. These deduced UTs have a very high sequence identity with the known elasmobranch Uts. [L. ocellata]skUT-2 was 86% identical to [D. sabina]strUT-2 and 84% identical to [S. acanthias]shUT. [D. say]strUT-2 was 97% identical to the [D. sabina]strUT-2. These findings support the hypothesis that a conserved UT isoform is present in the kidneys of marine elasmobranchs, and is an important pathway for facilitated urea transport in the kidneys of marine elasmobranchs. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. H.A. Gefroh and E.E. Cwengros contributed equally to this study.     

Distribution and early life history of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Kaupichthys</Emphasis> leptocephali (family Chlopsidae) in the central Indonesian Seas

Leptocephali of the widely distributed tropical marine eels of the genus Kaupichthys (family Chlopsidae) were collected around Sulawesi Island during a sampling survey in the Indonesian Seas in late September and early October 2002, and the otolith microstructure of 24 of the 59 specimens captured was examined to learn about the larval growth rates and spawning times of these small sized eels. Leptocephali ranging in size from 25 to 60 mm were collected in Makassar Strait and the Celebes Sea, but they were most abundant in the semi-enclosed Tomini Bay of northeast Sulawesi Island. The Kaupichthys leptocephali examined had 39–161 otolith growth increments. Their back-calculated hatching dates indicated that five age groups were present and each group appeared to have been spawned around the full moon of previous months. Average growth rate estimates of the first two age groups were 0.65 and 0.54 mm/day for the 27.4–30.4 and 37.6–45.6 mm age classes. The growth rates of the oldest three age groups (52.0–60.8 mm) appeared to have slowed down after they reached their approximate maximum size. An increase in increment widths at the outer margin of the otoliths of those larger than 53 mm suggested that the process of metamorphosis had begun even though there were few external morphological changes indicating metamorphosis. It is hypothesized that chlopsid leptocephali have an unusually short gut that may not need to move forward during early metamorphosis. The presence of four age classes in Tomini Bay suggests that the Togian Islands region may be productive habitats for Kaupichthys juveniles and adults.     

Fine-scale chemical fingerprinting of an open coast crustacean for the assessment of population connectivity

Chemical fingerprinting techniques recently have been used to track larval dispersal of estuarine species that bear calcified structures, but the applicability of this important approach may be limited on the open coast where chemical signatures may be less distinctive and for the many species that do not retain calcified structures throughout development. Externally brooded embryos of the porcelain crab, Petrolisthes cinctipes, and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry were used to determine whether fine-scale variation in trace-elemental composition occurred along an open coast. Embryos were collected from 16 sites from 37.8° to 39.5° north latitude along the Pacific Coast of California, USA during late January and early February 2003. Discriminant function analysis revealed that collection sites, many separated by only a few kilometers along an open coast, could be differentiated with an overall accuracy of 73%, and combining the sites into three regions increased the accuracy to 88%. Thus, distinctive elemental signatures can be detected in open coast species even at a fine scale raising the possibility that larval tags can be developed for many more species than previously thought possible.