Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of spatial predictions of heavy metals in wheat

Heavy metals seriously threaten the health of human beings when they enter the food chain. Therefore, policymakers require precise predictions of heavy metal concentrations in agricultural crops. In this paper we quantify the uncertainty of regression predictions of Cd and Pb in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and the contributions to the uncertainties in these predictions associated with inputs to the regression model. For each node of the 500- x 500-m grid covering the arable soils in The Netherlands, a latin hypercube sample size of 1000 is constructed from the uncertainty distributions of the explanatory variables (pH, soil organic matter [SOM], and heavy metal concentration in soil), the regression coefficients, and the random term of the regression model. This sample is used as input for the regression model to obtain 1000 values from the uncertainty distributions of the log(Cd) and log(Pb) concentration in wheat. There were no nodes where the recent EU quality standards for Cd and Pb (0.2 mg kg(-1) fresh wt.) in wheat were almost certain to be exceeded. For most nodes with clay soils, the quality standard for Cd in wheat almost certainly will not be exceeded; for Pb this is much less certain. The uncertainty in the Cd concentration in soil contributes most to the uncertainty in the predicted Cd concentrations in wheat (36% on the average), followed by the random term of the regression model (23%). For Pb the contribution of the random term is by far the largest (52%).     

How population dynamics shape the functional response in a one-predator-two-prey system

The type III functional response has historically been associated with switching predators; when there is a choice of prey the predator favors the more abundant prey type. Although this functional response has been found in experiments where both prey densities are manipulated, in real world studies the type II functional response is more commonly found. In modeling, the type III functional response is often used in systems where the second prey type is, implicitly, assumed to be constant. Here we define a functional response that takes into account both prey densities. This causes the functional response to show both type II and type III behavior, dependent on the interaction between the two prey densities. If we take into account population dynamics, we find a type II functional response in most cases, because predation regulates the relative prey densities. This explains why type III functional responses are found in experiments where both prey densities are manipulated, but type II functional responses occur when the feedback of population dynamics on the functional response is important. Furthermore, the results show that switching can have a stabilizing or destabilizing effect and can even lead to predator extinction.     

An IT perspective on integrated environmental modelling: The SIAT case

Policy makers have a growing interest in integrated assessments of policies. The Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) community is reacting to this interest by extending the application of model development from pure scientific analysis towards application in decision making or policy context by giving tools a higher capability for analysis targeted at non-experts, but intelligent users. Many parties are involved in the construction of such tools including modellers, domain experts and tool users, resulting in as many views on the proposed tool. During tool development research continues which leads to advanced understanding of the system and may alter early specifications. Accumulation of changes to the initial design obscures the design, usually vastly increasing the number of defects in the software. The software engineering community uses concepts, methods and practices to deal with ambiguous specifications, changing requirements and incompletely conceived visions, and to design and develop maintainable/extensible quality software. The aim of this paper is to introduce modellers to software engineering concepts and methods which have the potential to improve model and tool development using experiences from the development of the Sustainability Impact Assessment Tool. These range from choosing a software development methodology for planning activities and coordinating people, technical design principles impacting maintainability, quality and reusability of the software to prototyping and user involvement. It is argued that adaptive development methods seem to best fit research projects, that typically have unclear upfront and changing requirements. The break-down of a system into elements that overlap as little as possible in features and behaviour helps to divide the work across teams and to achieve a modular and flexible system. However, this must be accompanied by proper automated testing methods and automated continuous integration of the elements. Prototypes, screen sketches and mock-ups are useful to align the different views, build a shared vision of required functionality and to match expectations.     

Wistful wilderness: communication about ‘new’ nature in the Netherlands

Based on in-depth interviews, this article presents findings of a study centred on public communication regarding Tiengemeten, a Dutch island previously occupied by farmers. An answer is sought to the question of how visitors to Tiengemeten evaluate, according to their own experiences, the discourse of people involved in Tiengemeten from a policy and communication perspective. This study showed that visitors’ experiences do not always match the emotions appealed to in public communication materials. It is also suggested that people involved from a policy and communication perspective should refrain from using ‘heavily value-laden’ phraseology. For reasons of trust, this article suggests aligning public communication with genuine experiences of visitors. This is also necessary for avoiding scepticism of visitors as policy makers and communication professionals run a risk that public communication regarding nature becomes counterproductive.     

Seasonal exposures to triazine and other pesticides in surface waters in the western Highveld corn-production region in South Africa

The objective of this study was to characterize concentrations of atrazine, terbuthylazine, and other pesticides in amphibian habitats in surface waters of a corn-production area of the western Highveld region (North-West Province) of South Africa. The study was conducted from November 2001 to June 2002, coinciding with the corn-production season. Pesticide residues were measured at regular intervals in surface water from eight ponds, three in a non-corn-growing area (NCGA) and five within the corn-growing area (CGA). Measured atrazine concentrations differed significantly among sites and between samples. In the five CGA sites, the maximum atrazine concentrations measured during the study ranged from 1.2 to 9.3 microg/L. Although no atrazine was recorded as being applied in the catchment of the three NCGA sites, maximum concentrations from 0.39 to 0.84 microg/L were measured during the study, possibly as a result of atmospheric transport. Maximum measured concentrations of terbuthylazine ranged from 1.22 to 2.1 microg/L in the NCGA sites and from 1.04 to 4.1 microg/L in the CGA sites. The source of terbuthylazine in the NCGA sites may have been in use other than in corn. The triazine degradation products, deisopropylatrazine (DIA) and deethylatrazine (DEA) and diaminochlorotriazine (DACT) were also found in water from both the CGA and NCGA sites. Concentrations of DIA were > or = 1 microg/L throughout the season, while DEA concentrations were mostly <0.5 microg/L before planting but increased after planting and application of herbicides to concentrations >2 microg/L in some locations. Concentrations of DACT were highly variable (LOD to 8 microg/L) both before and after planting and application, suggesting that they resulted from historical use of triazines in the area. Other herbicides such as simazine and acetochlor were only detected infrequently and pesticides such as S-metolachlor, cypermethrin, monocrotophos, and terbuphos, known to be used in the CGA, were not detected in any of the samples. Because of dilution by higher than normal rainfall in the study period, these concentrations may not be predictive of those in years of normal rainfall.     

In Situ Solidification (ISS) of River Sediments: Pilot Demonstration and Discussion of ISS as a Remedial Alternative to Dredging and Capping

In situ solidification (ISS) is a proven technology for remediation of upland site soils, but has not been thoroughly demonstrated for use in impacted underwater sediments. This article describes the first successful use of ISS techniques to solidify underwater sediments containing manufactured gas plant non‐aqueous‐phase liquid (NAPL). The techniques consisted of mixing cementitious grout with the sediments in situ to create a monolith that immobilized the contaminants, significantly decreased the hydraulic conductivity, and also vastly decreased contaminant leaching potential of the sediments. The success of this pilot demonstration project suggests that ISS may be a viable alternative for: sites requiring deep dredging; large volume projects on urban waterways where staging and amending areas are limited; sites with NAPL impacts that cannot be controlled during dredging; and sites where eventual NAPL breakthrough is anticipated if reactive caps are employed. The potential economic, environmental, and operational benefits of this technology will be discussed. This article focuses on the primary objectives of the pilot demonstration: to meet quantitative performance criteria for strength and hydraulic conductivity; to assess the leach performance of the solidified sediments; and to satisfy water quality parameters for turbidity, pH, and sheen. Approach/activities: The pilot study utilized a customized marine platform (modular floats, tug boats, etc.) and full‐scale ISS equipment (auger rig, silos, etc.) and varied operational parameters to provide a range of data to assist in evaluating the feasibility and efficacy of the technology for use in similar environments and in planning future ISS projects on the water. Water quality controls and monitoring were implemented during the operation, and the study documented and evaluated the environmental disruption (short‐term impacts) and costs of the application of the ISS process to contaminated aquatic sediments. ©2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.