Incorporating Uncertainty into Management Models for Marine Mammals

Abstract: Good management models and good models for understanding biology differ in basic philosophy. Management models must facilitate management decisions despite large amounts of uncertainty about the managed populations. Such models must be based on parameters that can be estimated readily, must explicitly account for uncertainty, and should be simple to understand and implement. In contrast, biological models are designed to elucidate the workings of biology and should not be constrained by management concerns. We illustrate the need to incorporate uncertainty in management models by reviewing the inadequacy of using standard biological models to manage marine mammals in the United States. Past management was based on a simple model that, although it may have represented population dynamics adequately, failed as a management tool because the parameter that triggered management action was extremely difficult to estimate for the majority of populations. Uncertainty in parameter estimation resulted in few conservation actions. We describe a recently adopted management scheme that incorporates uncertainty and its resulting implementation. The approach used in this simple management scheme, which was tested by using simulation models, incorporates uncertainty and mandates monitoring abundance and human-caused mortality. Although the entire scheme may be suitable for application to some terrestrial and marine problems, two features are broadly applicable: the incorporation of uncertainty through simulations of management and the use of quantitative management criteria to translate verbal objectives into levels of acceptable risk.     

Dilemmas facing regulatory and advisory bodies dealing with conflicting results.

Regulatory and advisory bodies have to take into account the possibility that conventional toxicological screening and testing methods may be failing to pick up relevant effects, with the implication that testing may need to go down to much lower exposure levels and use specifically designed studies. In the paper, attention is focused on the problems of understanding endocrine disrupting activity. The shape of the dose-response curve for endocrine disrupters may differ from that normally associated with toxic chemicals (the monotonic sigmoid curve). Thus, prediction of both the nature of the effects of potential endocrine disrupters and the intensity of those effects at different doses may be equally difficult. Endocrine effects are not currently amenable to analysis by a single apical assay. While existing toxicological tests can pick up many end-organ and functional effects that are relevant to endocrine disturbances, they are generally poor at exploring apparently subtle effects such as disturbances of brain endocrine homeostatic mechanisms which may be critical for normal development.     

An approach to preimplantation diagnosis of β-thalassaemia

Using the polymerase chain reaction (PCR), it was possible to amplify a single copy fragment of the β-globin gene from 2–32 human embryonic cells obtained from arrested preimplantation embryos. For the detection of β-thalassaemia mutations, allele specific priming of the PCR using nested primers was employed using approximately 10 pg of DN A from individuals known to carry these mutations. This approach was successful in detecting the presence or absence of five Asian Indian β-thalassaemia mutations that were selected for this study. In spite of meticulous precautions against contamination, false-positive amplification was observed, a problem that will have to be overcome before this approach can be used in clinical practice.     

Behaviorally mediated spatial and temporal refuges from a cleptoparasite,Argochrysis armilla (Hymenoptera: Chrysididae), attacking a ground-nesting wasp,Ammophila dysmica (Hymenoptera: Sphecidae)

Summary It has been suggested that parasite pressure favors the evolution of sociality within the Hymenoptera. I analyzed the impact of a chrysidid nest parasite, Argochrysis armilla, on its host, the solitary ground-nesting wasp, Ammophila dysmica, to assess the role of parasitism in favoring two steps towards sociality: aggregated nesting and delayed nest provisioning. The foraging strategy of Argochrysis armilla involves discovering host nests during excavation, learning the locations of discovered nest, and returning to oviposit in nests during nest provisioning; I therefore assessed the influence of host behavior on (1) parasite discovery of nests and (2) parasite oviposition in nests. Significantly fewer parasites discovered host nests that were excavated during the early morning and late afternoon, due to partial asynchrony of host and parasite activity. Nests excavated in areas of low nest density were also less likely to be discovered; use of low density nest sites increased during periods of high parasite activity. Due to a rapidly decelerating rate of parasite recruitment to nests under excavation, the duration of nest digging had only a limited influence on nest discovery by parasites. The probability of parasite oviposition in a host nest was determined by the number of parasites discovering the nest during excavation and by the time between nest excavation and provisioning; delaying nest provisioning reduced the risk of parasite oviposition. Delayed provisionings primarily appeared to be a result of the stochastic process of hunting and prey encounter. The number of provisions placed in a nest (one vs two) had no effect on the probability of nest parasitism. Spatial patterns of parasitism were directly density dependent in 1984 and density independent in 1986. In this system parasite pressure acts against the formation of nesting aggregations and in favor of delayed nest provisioning. The dependence of these results on species-specific aspects of the parasite's foraging strategy and the host's defensive strategy suggests, however, that different parasite species may generate qualitatively different selection pressures, potentially contributing to the diversity of nesting behavior in the Hymenoptera.     

Generation pattern of sulfur containing gases from anaerobically digested sludge cakes.

Eleven dewatered sludge cakes collected from anaerobic digesters at different treatment plants were evaluated for the amount, type, and pattern of odorous gas production. All but one of the sludge cakes were from mesophilic anaerobic digesters. One was from a thermophilic digester. The pattern and quantities of sulfur gases were found to be unique for each of the samples with regard to the products produced, magnitude, and subsequent decline. The main odor-causing chemicals were volatile sulfur compounds, which included hydrogen sulfide, methanethiol, and dimethyl sulfide. Volatile sulfur compound production peaked in 3 to 8 days and then declined. The decline was a result of conversion of organic sulfur compounds to sulfide. In one side-by-side test, a high-solids centrifuge cake generated more odorous compounds than the low-solids centrifuge cake. The data show that anaerobic digestion does not eliminate the odor potential of anaerobically digested dewatered cakes.