Analysing the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrology models

Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects) and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock.     

Assessment of uncertainty of NO2 measurements by the chemiluminescence method and discussion of the quality objective of the NO2 European Directive

Hereafter, an assessment of the ability of the chemiluminescence method to measure ambient NO2 with an accuracy within 15%, as requested by the data quality objective of European directive 1999/30/CE, is presented. In general, uncertainty is evaluated using the response to reference materials or by means of inter-comparisons used to determine some statistics like repeatability, reproducibility and calibration bias. These are incomplete approaches and the method of the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement, advised by the Directive, should be preferred. In fact, even if it requires a large data set, it allows the relative influence of all possible sources of uncertainty to be studied. The extent of NO2 uncertainty is mainly dependent on the level of NO. It is decreased by NOx and the correlation between NOx and NO. Furthermore, the uncertainty budget reveals that the contribution of accuracy of calibration standard, linearity, converter efficiency and drift of the analyser between calibration checks to the overall uncertainty is less important than the contribution of interference, mainly humidity and PAN in rural areas. The relative expanded uncertainty of the NO2 hourly average exceeds 30% for NO2 concentrations lower than 40 microg m(-3). Nevertheless, the data quality objective of 15% is reached for 200 microg m(-3), the hourly limit value of the European directive. On the contrary, at the limit value on the annual average, 40 microg m(-3), the data quality objective is not met if NO is higher than 100 microg m(-3). However, the data quality objective could be reached by correcting the measurements with the bias due to interference.     

One-year monitoring survey of organic compounds (PAHs, PCBs, TBT), heavy metals and biomarkers in blue mussels from the Arcachon Bay, France

Marine mussels Mytilus sp. were transplanted on a monthly basis in cages over one year to oyster farms and harbours in the Arcachon Bay (France) in order to assess the water quality of the bay. Contaminant levels (organotin compounds, trace metals, PCBs and PAHs) were measured in tissues of transplanted mussels and mussels from a reference station, along with physiological parameters of the mussels (condition indexes, lipid content and dry weight). Four biomarkers (AChE: acetylcholinesterase activity, GST: gluthathione S-transferase activity, CAT: catalase activity and TBARS: thiobarbituric acid-reactive substance content) were also monitored. The remote stations monitored (oyster parks) exhibited no accumulation pattern of pollutants. Their respective concentrations therefore constitute a background level of the contamination in the bay ([TBT]= 30 ng Sn g(-1) dw, [SigmaHAPs]= 100 ng g(-1) dw, [SigmaPCBs]= 35 ng g(-1) dw). The elevated chemical contamination of the largest harbour of the bay, the Arcachon harbour, can be interpreted in terms of persistence of organotin compounds ([SigmaOTs]= 1500-2000 ng Sn g(-1) dw) and PAHs ([SigmaHAPs]= 4500-5000 ng g(-1) dw) in sediments and, to a lesser extent, of direct inputs of copper ([Cu]= 20 microg g(-1) dw in harbours versus 7 in oyster parks) and petrogenic PAHs ([methylphenanthrenes]= 1600 ng g(-1) dw in the dockyard versus 170 at the gas stations), related to the use of copper-based antifouling paints and to dockyard activity, respectively. However, the Arcachon Bay presents a low contamination level by PCBs and metals, including harbour stations. Furthermore, higher levels of other PAHs (particularly alkyl PAHs such as methylphenanthrenes/1600 ng g(-1) dw) not included in the 16 PAHs from the EPA priority list (usually studied in biomonitoring programmes/1500 ng g(-1) dw) in the Arcachon harbour underline the need to integrate these compounds in biomonitoring of highly PAH-polluted areas such as harbours in order to avoid misinterpretation of the biological responses observed. Biomarker responses were not able to discriminate the different chemical contamination levels recorded in the Arcachon Bay and rather reflected changes in environmental factors. Furthermore, the strong intraspecies variability of biological responses could be due to genetic differences of mussels from the Arcachon Bay. It is the first time that such an integrated monitoring is performed in the Arcachon Bay, also taking into account seasonal variations of chemical contents and biomarkers levels in mussel tissues.     

Environmental quality control and environmental games

Conclusion  In this paper we have considered a specific environmental game emphasizing both control-prevention efforts and the propensity to pollute by a firm which adopts a given pollution abatement technology. A random payoff game was constructed and solved under a risk neutral assumption and quadratic utilities for both the firm and the environmental controller. The game thus defined, provides a wide range of interpretations and potential approaches for selecting a control-inspection policies to prevent environmental risks. There are of course many facets to this problem, which could be considered and have not been considered in sufficient depth. For example, more complex control mechanisms and liabilities, the effects of insurance and risk sharing, the application of cooperative efforts and subvention of pollution abatement investments (through tax incentives and their like), etc. have not been considered [5,7]. These are topics for further research. The basic presumption of this paper is that it is very difficult to fully enforce pollution prevention by firms, as a result, some controls are needed to ensure that firms be controlled so that appropriate efforts are carried.     

Seasonal variations in nickel and vanadium in Mont Blanc snow and ice dated from the 1960s and 1990s

Ni and V have been determined in snow and ice collected at a high altitude location (Col du D?me) near the summit of Mont Blanc on the French-Italian border; dated from the 1960s and 1990s. Ni and V were simultaneously determined by inductively coupled plasma sector field mass spectrometry. Measured concentrations range from 6 to 700 pg g(-1) and 4 to 1,100 pg g(-1) for Ni and V, respectively. The results show pronounced seasonal variations in the concentrations of both metals, with high concentration values in summer layers and much lower values for winter layers. These seasonal variations are linked especially with the existence of inversion layers during winter months. Ni and V concentrations in excess of the contributions from rock and soil dust (Ni(excess), V(excess)) appear to be mainly associated with anthropogenic inputs, with pronounced seasonal variations. Large variations in the V(excess)/Ni(excess) ratio are observed, with a higher ratio in summer than in winter. This shows differences in anthropogenic inputs at Col du D?me during the different parts of the year. The above ratio was compared with the corresponding ratios for oil combustion from stationary sources and the exhaust from gasoline and diesel engines. It appears that Ni and V concentrations at Col du D?me are probably the result of changing combinations of contributions from oil combustion for power generation, industrial and residential uses, on one side, and automobile and truck traffic, on the other side, with possibly a significant contribution from Ni smelters in Russia during winter months.     

Integrating disciplinary research into an interdisciplinary framework: A case study in sustainability research

The complexity of today’s research problems increasingly demands that scientists move beyond the confines of their own discipline. In this special issue, the basics of a transdisciplinary framework are established and problems analyzed in a specific discipline are successfully integrated in this transdisciplinary network. The intent has been to go beyond only statements about the importance of enabling early stage researchers to work across disciplinary boundaries, and to show that important discoveries are being made at the intersection of disciplines. Embedding various research projects in a more global framework can meet the demands of an interdisciplinary or transdisciplinary approach (especially for early stage researchers) and contribute significantly to sustainable research.     

A study on the orbit of air temperature movement

In this paper, we describe an air temperature movement by mapping its time series to the polar coordinates: the value of the time series is plotted on the radial coordinate and the time on the angular coordinate. In this way, both the yearly and daily air temperature movements from five different locations of China are used to demonstrate that, in an intuitionistic view, air temperature movement is neither random nor chaotic, but has its own orbit. We then propose an elliptic orbit model for the air temperature movement. Our proposed model provides quite good results when it is applied to the evaluation of yearly air temperature movements in eight locations in various parts of the world, and the evaluation of daily air temperature movements in five locations in Hunan Province of China on December 17, 2005. Results show that our approach provides a concise and helpful model for air temperature analysis.     

Assessing land use impacts on flood processes in complex terrain by using GIS and modeling approach

A distributed hydrologic modeling and GIS approach is applied for the assessment of land use impact in the Steinsel sub-basin, Alzette, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg. The assessment focuses on the runoff contributions from different land use classes and the potential impact of land use changes on runoff generation. The results show that the direct runoff from urban areas is dominant for a flood event compared with runoff from other land use areas in this catchment, and tends to increase for small floods and for the dry season floods, whereas the interflow from forested, pasture and agricultural field areas contributes to the recession flow. Significant variations in flood volume, peak discharge, time to the peak, etc., are found from the model simulation based on the three hypothetical land use change scenarios.     

Application of a checklist for quality assistance in environmental modelling to an energy model

Large, complex energy models present considerable challenges to develop and test. Uncertainty assessments of such models provide only partial guidance on the quality of the results. We have developed a model quality assistance checklist to aid in this purpose. The model checklist provides diagnostic output in the form of a set of pitfalls for the model application. The checklist is applied here to an energy model for the problem of assessing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Use of the checklist suggests that results on this issue are contingent on a number of assumptions that are highly value-laden. When these assumptions are held fixed, the model is deemed capable of producing moderately robust results of relevance to climate policy over the longer term. Checklist responses also indicate that a number of details critical to policy choices or outcomes on this issue are not captured in the model, and model results should therefore be supplemented with alternative analyses.     

Fetal cholecystomegaly: A prenatal marker of aneuploidy

The fetal gall bladder can now be easily identified during the second and third trimesters using high-resolution ultrasonography. In this report we present eight fetuses with an enlarged gall bladder detected on prenatal ultrasonography at a mean gestational age of 24.6 weeks (range 19–31 weeks). Additional ultrasonographic findings were present in four cases: fetal anomalies and intrauterine growth retardation in three and polyhydramnios in one. Of those cases associated with fetal anomalies, one woman underwent amniocentesis at 21 weeks revealing trisomy 18. The other two declined prenatal karyotyping; neonatal karyotyping revealed trisomy 13 in one and trisomy 18 in the other. Although an enlarged fetal gall bladder can be a normal variant in the second and third trimesters, the prenatal detection of cholecystomegaly should prompt a search for associated anomalies and other markers of aneuploidy. If found, prenatal karyotyping should be considered.