The environmentalist who cried drought: Reactions to repeated warnings about depleting resources under conditions of uncertainty

Three studies examined the impact of warnings about depleting resources. In Study 1, participants played 16 trials of a 5-person resource dilemma game with complete resource uncertainty. After trial 12, participants were told they were close to depleting the resource, and thereafter received no additional warnings. Size of harvests dropped after the warning, but rebounded within 3 trials to pre-warning levels, a pattern stronger under low harvesting variability. In Study 2, participants received warnings after trials 12 and 16 of a 22-trial game. Again, harvesting dropped after the first warning, but rebounded to pre-warning levels within 3 trials, a pattern stronger under a short-term vs. a long-term warning. Harvesting was unaffected by the second warning. In Study 3, when participants received no feedback about others' harvests, harvesting dropped after both warnings, and was lower among those led to believe the resource would last a short number of trials.     

Distribution of Selected Soil and Water Conservation Practices in the U.S. as Identified with Google Earth

The proper representation of conservation practices on agricultural lands is an important factor in large‐scale assessments of water quality in the United States. Unfortunately, there are few publicly available data sources at the local level and even fewer at the national scale. In this research, randomly selected points within agricultural lands were examined for selected conservation practices using Google Earth aerial imagery by a team of interpreters. In total, 13,530 points had field boundaries digitized, and were subsequently examined and classified. The presence of terraces, grassed waterways, contour farming, center pivot irrigation, strip cropping, ponds, riparian vegetation, filter strips, and land cover were noted. Subjectivity among interpreters was evaluated using duplicate samples and was found to be similar to image misclassification rates in other research. Conservation practice adoption rates for selected major river basins compared favorably with data collected by the Conservation Effects Assessment Project. The frequency of occurrence of each conservation practice was summarized and presented by ecoregion. To facilitate future research, point level data and software source code developed in this research are available via the web at http://nlet.brc.tamus.edu/Conservation . Aerial imagery was found to be a powerful, inexpensive, and easily accessible tool to assess large‐scale conservation practice implementation for certain conservation practices.     

The cultural politics of mining and natural disaster in Indonesia: by fire and sword

Natural disasters are inevitably the outcome of cultural agonisms. The cultural politics of natural disasters are shaped by competing claims and conceptions of ‘nature’. Recent disasters in Indonesia are directly linked to these contending conceptions and the ways in which different social groups imagine risk and reward. The Sidoarjo volcanic mudflow of 2006 represents a volatile and violent exemplar of contending cultural and economic claims. Like other disasters in Indonesia and elsewhere in the developing world, this ‘natural’ disaster is characterised by differing conceptions of ‘nature’ as cultural tradition, divine force, and natural resource. A new extractive project in East Java is exhibiting similar economic and cultural agonisms, particularly around the notion of development, environment, self‐determination, and tradition. This paper examines the ‘disputes over meaning’ associated with natural disasters in contemporary societies, and the ways in which they are related to human culture, social organisation, and hierarchical systems of violence.     

The Selenga River delta: a geochemical barrier protecting Lake Baikal waters

Regional Environmental Change - The protection of Lake Baikal and the planning of water management measures in the Selenga River Basin require a comprehensive understanding of the current state and...     

Ozone Predictions in Atlanta,Georgia: Analysis of the 1999 Ozone Season

ABSTRACT

Ozone prediction has become an important activity in many U.S. ozone nonattainment areas. In this study, we describe the ozone prediction program in the Atlanta metropolitan area and analyze the performance of this program during the 1999 ozone-forecasting season. From May to September, a team of 10 air quality regulators, meteorologists, and atmospheric scientists made a daily prediction of the next-day maximum 8-hr average ozone concentration. The daily forecast was made aided by two linear regression models, a 3-dimensional air quality model, and the no-skill ozone persistence model. The team's performance is compared with the numerical models using several numerical indicators. Our analysis indicated that (1) the team correctly predicted next-day peak ozone concentrations 84% of the time, (2) the two linear regression models had a better performance than a 3-dimensional air quality model, (3) persistence was a strong predictor of ozone concentrations with a performance of 78%, and (4) about half of the team's wrong predictions could be prevented with improved meteorological predictions.     

Development of a Cropland Management Dataset to Support U.S. Swat Assessments

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is widely used in the United States (U.S.) to simulate hydrology and water quality simulation. Process‐based models like SWAT require a great deal of data to accurately represent the natural world, including topography, land use, soils, weather, and management. With the exception of management, all these data are available nationally from multiple sources. To date, credible SWAT studies in the U.S. have assembled suitable management data (operation scheduling, fertilization application rates, and plant growth parameterization). In this research, we develop a national management database for SWAT using existing U.S. Department of Agriculture data sources. These data are compatible with existing SWAT interfaces and are relatively easy to use. Although management data from local sources is preferred, these data are not always available. This work is intended to fill this void with more reasonable management data than the existing defaults. This national database covers all major cultivated crops and should facilitate improved SWAT applications in the U.S. These data were tested in two case studies and found to produce satisfactory SWAT predictions. The database developed in this research is freely available on the web.     

Updated methods for assessing the impacts of nearby gas drilling and production on neighborhood air quality and human health

An explosive growth in natural gas production within the last decade has fueled concern over the public health impacts of air pollutant emissions from oil and gas sites in the Barnett and Eagle Ford shale regions of Texas. Commonly acknowledged sources of uncertainty are the lack of sustained monitoring of ambient concentrations of pollutants associated with gas mining, poor quantification of their emissions, and inability to correlate health symptoms with specific emission events. These uncertainties are best addressed not by conventional monitoring and modeling technology, but by increasingly available advanced techniques for real-time mobile monitoring, microscale modeling and source attribution, and real-time broadcasting of air quality and human health data over the World Wide Web. The combination of contemporary scientific and social media approaches can be used to develop a strategy to detect and quantify emission events from oil and gas facilities, alert nearby residents of these events, and collect associated human health data, all in real time or near-real time. The various technical elements of this strategy are demonstrated based on the results of past, current, and planned future monitoring studies in the Barnett and Eagle Ford shale regions.

Implications: Resources should not be invested in expanding the conventional air quality monitoring network in the vicinity of oil and gas exploration and production sites. Rather, more contemporary monitoring and data analysis techniques should take the place of older methods to better protect the health of nearby residents and maintain the integrity of the surrounding environment.     

Including risk in stated-preference economic valuations: Experiments on choices for marine recreation

Stated-preference surveys for the economic valuation of environmental resources typically assume no uncertainty in the hypothetical valuation scenarios. However, the outcomes of environmental policies are uncertain. We explored the effects of including information on probabilities of attribute improvement and provision in choice experiments. Our results suggest that stating explicitly a high probability for the occurrence of the valuation scenario can improve the goodness of fit of choice models and the consistency of choices. As the general public becomes more aware of the uncertainty of environmental outcomes under global change, omitting information on scenario risk may contribute to hypothetical bias and impair the validity of stated-preference valuations.