OPTIMIZATION MODELING OF A NEW FACILITY FOR THE CALIFORNIA STATE WATER PROJECT1

ABSTRACT: A non-linear optimization model is applied to the California State Water Project (SWP) and portions of the Central Valley Project (CVP). The model accounts for the major hydrologic, regulatory, and operational features of both projects. The model maximizes long-term SWP yields over a 70-year period, using a quarterly time step. The potential for increased yield associated with a proposed facility improvement is evaluated with the model. The proposed facility is an extension of the Folsom-South Canal, which would allow water to be conveyed from the American River below Folsom Reservoir into New Melones Reservoir on the Stanislaus River or into the California Aqueduct. Model results indicate that extension of the Folsom-South Canal has the potential to increase SWP yields by 13 percent.     

Emotional social support and job burnout among high‐school teachers: is it all due to dispositional affectivity?

The authors investigated whether the relationship between the contents of emotional social support and job burnout among high‐school teachers is spurious because of the role of dispositional positive and negative affectivity. A national sample of 339 teachers was surveyed via a web‐based procedure. Hierarchical regression analyses did not support spuriousness; emotional social support was uniquely predictive of three dimensions of burnout controlling for affectivity. As positive emotional social support increased, emotional exhaustion and cynicism decreased, and professional efficacy increased. As negative emotional social support increased, emotional exhaustion and cynicism also increased. Commonality analyses based on the present data and data reported by K. L. Zellars and P. L. Perrewé (2001; Journal of Applied Psychology, 86, 459–467) provided additional support for the unique role of emotional social support on burnout, but these analyses suggest a greater role of affectivity than emotional social support. These findings have implications for research on burnout as well as the prevention of burnout among teachers. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of Short- and Long-Term Disturbance Resulting from Military Maneuvers on Vegetation and Soils in a Mixed Prairie Area

Loss of grassland species resulting from activities such as off-road vehicle use increases the need for models that predict effects of anthropogenic disturbance. The relationship of disturbance by military training to plant species richness and composition on two soils (Foard and Lawton) in a mixed prairie area was investigated. Track cover (cover of vehicle disturbance to the soil) and soil organic carbon were selected as measures of short- and long-term disturbance, respectively. Soil and vegetation data, collected in 1-m² quadrats, were analyzed at three spatial scales (60, 10, and 1 m²). Plant species richness peaked at intermediate levels of soil organic carbon at the 10-m² and 1-m² spatial scales on both the Lawton and Foard soils, and at intermediate levels of track cover at all three spatial scales on the Foard soil. Species composition differed across the disturbance gradient on the Foard soil but not on the Lawton soil. Disturbance increased total plant species richness on the Foard soil. The authors conclude that disturbance up to intermediate levels can be used to maintain biodiversity by enriching the plant species pool.     

A Comparison of Campfire Impacts and Policies in Seven Protected Areas

Using resource-monitoring data from seven protected areas, the effectiveness of three campfire policies—campfire ban, designated campfires, and unregulated campfires—were assessed based on the number of fire sites and the amount of tree damage. Results indicate that unregulated campfire policies permitted substantial numbers of fire sites and tree damage in campsites, although fire bans did not eliminate or even substantially decrease these problems. A designated campfire policy was effective in decreasing number of fire sites, but little difference was found among policies regarding tree damage. Given the importance of campfires to visitor experiences, campfire prohibitions could be viewed as unnecessarily restrictive based on their limited success in preventing resource damage. Conclusions encourage protected-area managers to consider designated campfire policies and prohibitions on axes, hatchets, and saws to better meet resource protection and visitor experience mandates.     

Green roof stormwater retention: effects of roof surface, slope, and media depth

Urban areas generate considerably more stormwater runoff than natural areas of the same size due to a greater percentage of impervious surfaces that impede water infiltration. Roof surfaces account for a large portion of this impervious cover. Establishing vegetation on rooftops, known as green roofs, is one method of recovering lost green space that can aid in mitigating stormwater runoff. Two studies were performed using several roof platforms to quantify the effects of various treatments on stormwater retention. The first study used three different roof surface treatments to quantify differences in stormwater retention of a standard commercial roof with gravel ballast, an extensive green roof system without vegetation, and a typical extensive green roof with vegetation. Overall, mean percent rainfall retention ranged from 48.7% (gravel) to 82.8% (vegetated). The second study tested the influence of roof slope (2 and 6.5%) and green roof media depth (2.5, 4.0, and 6.0 cm) on stormwater retention. For all combined rain events, platforms at 2% slope with a 4-cm media depth had the greatest mean retention, 87%, although the difference from the other treatments was minimal. The combination of reduced slope and deeper media clearly reduced the total quantity of runoff. For both studies, vegetated green roof systems not only reduced the amount of stormwater runoff, they also extended its duration over a period of time beyond the actual rain event.     

Estimating abundance without recaptures of marked pallid sturgeon in the Mississippi River

Abundance estimates are essential for assessing the viability of populations and the risks posed by alternative management actions. An effort to estimate abundance via a repeated mark‐recapture experiment may fail to recapture marked individuals. We devised a method for obtaining lower bounds on abundance in the absence of recaptures for both panmictic and spatially structured populations. The method assumes few enough recaptures were expected to be missed by random chance. The upper Bayesian credible limit on expected recaptures allows probabilistic statements about the minimum number of individuals present in the population. We applied this method to data from a 12‐year survey of pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) in the lower and middle Mississippi River (U.S.A.). None of the 241 individuals marked was recaptured in the survey. After accounting for survival and movement, our model‐averaged estimate of the total abundance of pallid sturgeon ≥3 years old in the study area had a 1%, 5%, or 25% chance of being <4,600, 7,000, or 15,000, respectively. When we assumed fish were distributed in proportion to survey catch per unit effort, the farthest downstream reach in the survey hosted at least 4.5–15 fish per river kilometer (rkm), whereas the remainder of the reaches in the lower and middle Mississippi River hosted at least 2.6–8.5 fish/rkm for all model variations examined. The lower Mississippi River had an average density of pallid sturgeon ≥3 years old of at least 3.0–9.8 fish/rkm. The choice of Bayesian prior was the largest source of uncertainty we considered but did not alter the order of magnitude of lower bounds. Nil‐recapture estimates of abundance are highly uncertain and require careful communication but can deliver insights from experiments that might otherwise be considered a failure.     

Development of the Metropolitan Water Availability Index (MWAI) and short-term assessment with multi-scale remote sensing technologies

Global climate change will influence environmental conditions including temperature, surface radiation, soil moisture, and sea level, and it will also significantly impact regional-scale hydrologic processes such as evapotranspiration (ET), precipitation, runoff, and snowmelt. The quantity and quality of water available for drinking and other domestic usage is also likely to be affected by changes in these processes. Consequently, it is necessary to assess and reflect upon the challenges ahead for water infrastructure and the general public in metropolitan regions. One approach to the problem is to use index-based assessment, forecasting and planning. The drought indices previously developed were not developed for domestic water supplies, and thus are insufficient for the purpose of such an assessment. This paper aims to propose and develop a “Metropolitan Water Availability Index (MWAI)” to assess the status of both the quantity and quality of available potable water sources diverted from the hydrologic cycle in a metropolitan region. In this approach, the accessible water may be expressed as volume per month or week (i.e., m³/month or m³/week) relative to a prescribed historical record, and such a trend analysis may result in final MWAI values ranging from ?1 to +1 for regional water management decision making. The MWAI computation uses data and information from both historical point measurements and spatial remote-sensing based monitoring. Variables such as precipitation, river discharge, and water quality changes at drinking water plant intakes at specific locations are past “point” measurements in MWAI calculations. On the other hand, remote sensing provides information on both spatial and temporal distributions of key variables. Examples of remote-sensing images and sensor network technologies are in-situ sensor networks, ground-based radar, air-borne aircraft, and even space-borne satellites. A case study in Tampa Bay, Florida is described to demonstrate the short-term assessment of the MWAI concept at a practical level. It is anticipated that such a forecasting methodology may be extended for middle-term and long-term water supply assessment.     

Investing in rangeland restoration in the Arid West,USA: Countering the effects of an invasive weed on the long-term fire cycle

In large areas of the arid western United States, much of which are federally managed, fire frequencies and associated management costs are escalating as flammable, invasive cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) increases its stronghold. Cheatgrass invasion and the subsequent increase in fire frequency result in the loss of native vegetation, less predictable forage availability for livestock and wildlife, and increased costs and risk associated with firefighting. Revegetation following fire on land that is partially invaded by cheatgrass can reduce both the dominance of cheatgrass and its associated high fire rate. Thus restoration can be viewed as an investment in fire-prevention and, if native seed is used, an investment in maintaining native vegetation on the landscape. Here we develop and employ a Markov model of vegetation dynamics for the sagebrush steppe ecosystem to predict vegetation change and management costs under different intensities and types of post-fire revegetation. We use the results to estimate the minimum total cost curves for maintaining native vegetation on the landscape and for preventing cheatgrass dominance. Our results show that across a variety of model parameter possibilities, increased investment in post-fire revegetation reduces long-term fire management costs by more than enough to offset the costs of revegetation. These results support that a policy of intensive post-fire revegetation will reduce long-term management costs for this ecosystem, in addition to providing environmental benefits. This information may help justify costs associated with revegetation and raise the priority of restoration in federal land budgets.     

Insertable thin film thermocouples for in situ transient temperature monitoring in ultrasonic metal welding of battery tabs

Real-time monitoring and control of temperature in ultrasonic joining of battery tabs and coupons are important for the quality improvement and cost reduction of battery assembly. However, there have always been difficulties in accurate and real-time measurement of temperature by conventional sensors for practical implementation. In this study, an innovative method is developed to provide an enabling technology for the in situ transient temperature monitoring, which could provide reliable feedback signals for potential control of ultrasonic joining processes. Micro thin film thermocouples (TFTCs) were fabricated on thin silicon substrates, which were then inserted in the welding anvil as a permanent feature so that the sensors were always located about 100 μm directly under the welding spot during joining of multilayer Ni-coated Cu thin sheets for battery assembly. Good repeatability was demonstrated while a temperature rise of up to 650 °C was obtained due to the closeness of the sensors to the welding spot. The inserts with thin film sensors remained functional after welding experiments. This method has a great potential for in situ transient temperature monitoring, and thus the control of ultrasonic joining processes to realize a practical smart joining system.