Multi‐Criteria Decision Support Systems for Flood Hazard Mitigation and Emergency Response in Urban Watersheds1

Abstract: Flood management problems are inherently complex, time‐bound and multi‐faceted, involving many decision makers (with conflicting priorities and dynamic preferences), high decision stakes, limited technical information (both in terms of quality and quantity), and difficult tradeoffs. Multi‐Criteria Decision Support Systems (MCDSS) can help to manage this complexity and decision load by combining value judgments and technical information in a structured decision framework. A brief overview of MCDSS is presented, an original MCDSS architecture is put forth, and future research directions are discussed, including extensions to Multi‐Criteria Spatial Decision Support Systems and group MCDSS (as flood management involves shared resources and broad constituencies). With application to the September 11‐12, 2000 Tokai floods in Japan, the proposed multi‐criteria decision support instruments enhance communication among stakeholders and improve emergency management resource allocation. In summary, by making the links among flood knowledge, assumptions and choices more explicit, MCDSS increases stakeholder satisfaction, saves lives, and reduces flood management costs, thereby increasing decision‐making effectiveness, efficiency and transparency.     

Development of imposex and accumulation of butyltin in the tropical muricid Thais distinguenda transplanted to a TBT contaminated site

The muricid Thais distinguenda (ca. 1,300 individuals) was collected from a pristine island in the Andaman Sea and tagged prior to translocation to an area of intense shipping activities. A minimum of 50 tagged individuals were recaptured 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 12 months after transplantation. The animals were separated into small (< or = 25 mm) and big (>25 mm) specimens based on total shell length and both incidence of imposex and body burden of butyltin (BT) were determined. After 3 months 16.7% of the small size and none of the big size class had developed imposex. After 5 months the incidence of imposex in the big and small size classes increased steadily with time reaching 86.4 and 80%, respectively after 1 year. Time after transplantation was significantly correlated with the incidence of imposex for the big size class (Spearman Rs=1; P=0.008); RPLI (Spearman Rs=1; P=0.008) and VDSI (Spearman Rs=1; P=0.008); and the small size class: incidence of imposex (Spearman Rs=1; P=0.006); RPLI (Spearman Rs=1; P=0.006) and VDSI (Spearman Rs=1: P=0.007). The development of imposex was not significantly related to body size after five months (chi square P<0.001). The body burden of tributyltin was not significantly different between the two size classes (paired t-test ) but the smaller animals had significantly higher concentrations of both dibutyltin (DBT; P<0.005) and monobutyltin (MBT; P<0.001). The use of transplantation experiments in addition to imposex surveys and analysis of body burden of tributyltin (TBT) can enhance the interpretation of the results and understanding of the time scale involved with the development of imposex.     

Molecular phylogeny of cycads inferred from rbcL sequences

The chloroplast gene rbcL was sequenced to elucidate the evolution of the gymnosperm plant order Cycadales. In accordance with traditional systematics, the order Cycadales and the corresponding genera cluster as monophyletic clades. Among them, the genus Cycas forms a basal group. The genetic distances within the genus Encephalartos and between the sister groups Encephalartos, Lepidozamia and Macrozamia, are unexpectedly small, suggesting that the extant species are the result of Miocene and Pliocene speciation. Their distribution in Africa or Australia, respectively, may therefore rather be due to long-distance dispersal than to Cretaceous continental drift, as had previously been assumed. The rbcL sequences also indicate that the colonisation of Madagascar by Cycas thouarsii occurred only recently as the sequences of C. thouarsii and Cycas rumphii from Indonesia are identical. In contrast, the divergence of the Cycadaceae and Zamiaceae apparently occurred in the Mesozoic.     

Rapid FLASH NMR imaging

Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy and imaging provide new tools for non-invasive investigations of living systems. Recent developments in rapid NMR imaging now offer considerable improvements for both scientific applications and medical diagnosis. Using fast imaging sequences cross-sectional images may be recorded within seconds and, therefore, become free from motional artifacts due to breathing or peristalsis. New functional imaging experiments include dynamic studies of the application of paramagnetic contrast agents or ECG-synchronized recordings of cardiac NMR movies. Superior anatomical information is achieved by three-dimensional NMR imaging with measuring times of minutes rather than hours.     

Urinary nickel concentrations and selected pregnancy outcomes in delivering women and their newborns among arctic populations of Norway and Russia

The two objectives of this study were to compare urinary nickel excretion in pregnant women and their newborns living in the Murmansk and Arkhangelsk Counties of Russia with that in comparable Norwegian populations living in Finnmark and the city of Bergen and to assess the influence on pregnancy outcome of different risk variables, specifically urinary nickel concentrations and questionnaire-based anamnestic information. Life-style information and urine samples were collected from 50 consecutive mother-infant pairs from hospital delivery departments in three Russian and three Norwegian communities. Pregnancy outcomes were verified from medical records. Urinary nickel excretion was significantly higher in the Russian communities, independent of the presence of a nickel refinery as a local environmental source. The birth weight and mean body mass index of the newborn children (BMIC) were significantly lower (p < 0.001) in the Russian groups, with or without adjustment for gestational age. A multivariate linear regression analysis indicated that maternal urinary nickel concentration had no impact on birth weight. The maternal body mass index (BMI) and maternal height were positive explanatory variables; maternal urinary creatinine is suggested as a weak negative factor. Smoking was shown to be a strong negative predictor only in the Norwegian group among whom there was a significantly higher smoking frequency (p = 0.005). The significant contribution of a country factor in the predictive model is interpreted to indicate that a number of important risk factors for low birth weight were not identified.     

Acute injuries resulting from accidents involving powered mobility devices (PMDs)—Development and outcomes of PMD-related accidents in Sweden

Objective: Powered mobility devices (PMDs) are commonly used as aids for older people and people with disabilities, subgroups of vulnarable road users (VRUs) who are rarely noted in traffic safety contexts. However, the problem of accidents involving PMD drivers has been reported in many countries where these vehicles have become increasingly popular.

The aim of this study is to extract and analyze national PMD-related accident and injury data reported to the Swedish Traffic Accident Data Acquisition (STRADA) database. The results will provide valuable insight into the risks and obstacles that PMD drivers are exposed to in the traffic environment and may contribute to improving the mobility of this group in the long term.

Methods: The current study is based on data from 743 accidents and 998 persons. An analysis was performed on a subset of data (N?=?301) in order to investigate the development of accidents over a period of 10 years. Thereafter, each accident in the whole data set was registered as either single (N?=?427) or collision (N?=?315).

Results: The results show that there was a 3-fold increase in the number of PMD-related accidents reported to STRADA during the period 2007–2016.

With regard to single accidents, collisions, as well as fatalities, the injury statistics were dominated by males. Single accidents were more common than collisions (N?=?427 and N?=?316, respectively) and the level of injury sustained in each type of accident is on par.

The vast majority of single accidents resulted in the PMD driver impacting the ground (87%), due to either PMD turnover (71%) or the driver falling out of the PMD (16%). The reason for many of the single accidents was a difference in ground level (34%, typically a curb).

Cars, trucks, or buses were involved in 67% of collision events; these occured predominantly at junctions or intersections (70%).

Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 3+ injuries were dominated by hip and head injuries in both single accidents and collision events.

Conclusions: The present study shows that further research on PMD accidents is required, with regard to both single accidents and collision events. To ensure that appropriate decisions are made, future work should follow up on injury trends and further improve the quality of PDM-related accident data. Improved vehicle stability and design, increased usage of safety equipment, proper training programs, effective maintenance services, and development of a supporting infrastructure would contribute to increased safety for PMD drivers.     

Poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyhexanoate)/Organomodified Montmorillonite Nanocomposites for Potential Food Packaging Applications

Poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyhexanoate) (PHBHHx) is a versatile, biobased and biodegradable copolymer from the family of polyhydroxyalkanoates. This study aims to further ameliorate its properties in order to enhance its applicability for food packaging purposes through preparation of organomodified montmorillonite clay (OMMT) nanocomposites. Nanocomposites based on pure PHBHHx as well as commercial PHBHHx granulate, after a previous dry-mixing with OMMT in concentrations of 1, 3, 5 and 10 wt%, were prepared using melt blending and compression molding. Investigation of the samples showed well dispersed nanofiller and highly intercalated nanocomposites, resulting in a continuous decrease in gas permeability, lowering O₂, CO₂ and water vapor permeability with about 5–7 % and approximately 40 % at OMMT concentration of 1 and 10 wt%, respectively. Besides gas permeability, other properties were affected as well. Thermal stability of the samples increased gradually up to 5 wt% nanofiller, but was reduced at 10 wt%. In order to investigate the effects of OMMT and molecular weights on PHBHHx crystallization, nanocomposites were also produced by solvent-casting and compared to those obtained by melt-blending. Crystallization was retarded, because of severe lowering of molecular weight due to processing-induced chain scission, catalyzed by OMMT moisture. However, this reduction was counteracted for a large part by using commercial PHBHHx granulate, which has shown better crystallization properties. The samples were rendered increasingly more brittle, displaying higher Young’s modulus and severely reduced elongation at break. From this study it appeared that, upon viewing all affected properties as a whole, the sample based on commercial PHBHHx and containing 3 wt% OMMT shows most promise for possible applications, however further research must be performed in order to exploit their fullest potential.     

Zwei Jahre RIMAX—Rückblick und Ausblick

To develop and implement improved instruments for flood risk management in Germany, the national research programme ‘Risk management of extreme flood events’ (RIMAX), funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), was initiated. More than 30 joint projects are in progress under this framework since January 2005. An extended brochure which provides information regarding all projects currently funded by the RIMAX research programme is available from the RIMAX-website (www.rimax-hoch wasser.de). Intensive research has been carried out during the first two years of the funding initiative and several workshops were held to enhance the scientific discussion and the communication between the numerous projects. To develop communication pathways between research and practice RIMAX was presented at the ‘acqua alta 2006’, a trade fair for flood prevention and disaster management. Furthermore, a working group from the German Association for Water, Wastewater and Waste (DWA) is in the process of forming which aims at supporting the transfer of research results into practice. In 2006, five additional projects commenced. However, most of the projects funded in 2005 concentrate on the completion of their research and publishing their findings. A RIMAX-wide concept for the documentation and presentation of the results is currently developed by the coordinating team. More information and current news are available from the RIMAX-website (www.rimax-hochwasser.de).     

Ecologically based management of rodents in the real world: applied to a mixed agroecosystem in Vietnam.

Rodents cause significant damage to lowland irrigated rice crops in the Red River Delta of Vietnam. A four-year study was conducted in 1999-2002 to examine the effectiveness of applying rodent control practices using the principles of ecologically based pest management. Four 100-150 ha study sites adjacent to villages were selected and farmers on two treated sites were asked to follow a set of rodent management practices, while farmers on the untreated sites were asked not to change their typical practices. Farmers on the treated sites were encouraged to use trap-barrier systems (TBS's; 0.065-ha early planted crop surrounded by a plastic fence with multiple capture traps; one TBS for every 10-15 ha), to work together over large areas by destroying burrows in refuge habitats soon after planting (before the rats reestablish in the fields and before the onset of breeding), synchronizing planting and harvesting of the their rice crops, cleaning up weeds and piles of straw, and keeping bund (embankment) size small (<30 cm) to prevent burrowing. A 75% reduction in the use of rodenticides and plastic barrier fences (without traps or an early crop) was achieved on treated sites. The abundance of rodents was low after implementation of the management practices across all sites. There was no evidence for an effect of treatment on the abundance of rodents captured each month using live-capture traps, and no difference in damage between treatments or in yields obtained from the rice crops. Therefore, ecologically based rodent management was equally effective as typical practices for rodent management. Farmers on the treated sites spent considerably less money applying rodent control practices, which was reflected in the comparative increase in the partial benefit:cost of applying ecologically based rodent management from 3:1 on treated sites and untreated sites prior to the implementation of treatments to 17:1 on treated sites in the final year of the project.     

Assessment of management-dependent nutrient losses in tropical industrial tree plantations

Industrial tree plantations in the tropics usually follow short rotations and intensive site management including slash and burn, and the use of heavy machinery. We attempt to quantify the implied nutrient losses (harvest export, erosion, slash and burn, leaching) in order to give plantation managers a chance to understand the significance of their planning and decisions. We used the scarce globally available information and a case study plantation in East Kalimantan, Indonesia (Acacia mangium and Eucalyptus deglupta). Adaptation involves problems and is discussed in some detail. Results are approximate only. Assuming a harvest volume of 200 m3 ha(-1), we assessed a loss of 427-680 kg ha(-1) N, 12-13 kg ha(-1) P, 178-252 kg ha(-1) Ca, 276-370 kg ha(-1) K, and 45-57 kg ha(-1) Mg per rotation. Of this overall loss, stand harvest accounted for 18-29% (N), 21-30% (P), 56-26% (K), 48-64% (Ca) and 22-37% (Mg). This means that the cumulative loss by erosion, slash and burn, and leaching exceeds that of the harvest. These losses can be influenced by management.