Abundance patterns and foraging activity of ant communities in abandoned,organic and commercial apple orchards in Northern California

The abundance patterns of ant communities were monitored with pitfall traps during 14 weeks in four northern California, dry farmed, apple orchards: an abandoned orchard undisturbed for 25 years, two ‘organically’ managed orchards, one with a cover crop of bell beans (Vicia faba) and grasses and the other kept clean of cover by discing, and a ‘commercial’ clean cultivated orchard sprayed with organophosphate insecticides. Six species of ants coexisted in the abandoned orchard, whereas only two species were found in the managed orchards. In both the organic and sprayed, clean cultivated systems, ants were more abundant in the orchard edges than in the vegetation-free centers. This trend was not apparent in the abandoned or organic cover orchards, where plant diversity in the center was similar to that of the edges. Ant predation on potato tuberworm larvae, Phthorimaea operculella, artificially placed on the orchard floor, declined with the intensity of management and vegetational simplication. A higher incidence of larval removal occurred in the edges than in the centers of the clean cultivated orchards. No noticeable populations of ants were detected on the trees in any of the orchards. Increased vegetational diversity and lack of disturbance appeared to affect ant locomotory activity and foraging efficiency by creating preferred sheltering and feeding sites.     

Quantifying population declines based on presence‐only records for red‐list assessments

Accurate trend estimates are necessary for understanding which species are declining and which are most in need of conservation action. Imperfect species detection may result in unreliable trend estimates because this may lead to the overestimation of declines. Because many management decisions are based on population trend estimates, such biases could have severe consequences for conservation policy. We used an occupancy‐modeling framework to estimate detectability and calculate nationwide population trends for 14 Swiss amphibian species both accounting for and ignoring imperfect detection. Through the application of International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List criteria to the different trend estimates, we assessed whether ignoring imperfect detection could affect conservation policy. Imperfect detection occurred for all species and detection varied substantially among species, which led to the overestimation of population declines when detectability was ignored. Consequently, accounting for imperfect detection lowered the red‐list risk category for 5 of the 14 species assessed. We demonstrate that failing to consider species detectability can have serious consequences for species management and that occupancy modeling provides a flexible framework to account for observation bias and improve assessments of conservation status. A problem inherent to most historical records is that they contain presence‐only data from which only relative declines can be estimated. A move toward the routine recording of nonobservation and absence data is essential if conservation practitioners are to move beyond this toward accurate population trend estimation.     

Probabilistic risk assessment for long-range atmospheric transport of radionuclides

A simplified means of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for long-range atmospheric transport based on a K-diffusion model is presented. In a case study, model parameters are estimated by comparing with the results of long-range atmospheric dispersion model calculations using one-year numerical weather prediction model data. It is found that the estimated ensemble mean provides a reasonable first approximation to the total dry and wet deposition from the one-year continuous release.