Modeling weekday/weekend ozone differences in the Los Angeles region for 1997

Numerous studies of ambient ozone (O3) in the Los Angeles (LA) area have found both increases and decreases in elevated O3 levels on weekends, depending on location and year. Since the mid-1990s, average daily maximum O3 levels have been higher on weekends than on weekdays throughout most of the area. We used the Comprehensive Air-Quality Model with extensions to investigate causes of weekday/weekend O3 differences in the LA area for August 3-7, 1997, from the Southern California Ozone Study. Weekday/weekend emission changes were estimated, because explicit weekend inventories are not yet available from regulatory agencies. Changes to on-road motor vehicle (MV) emissions were derived from observed weekday/weekend traffic differences. The estimated changes in MV emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) were a 5% increase on Friday, a 27% decrease on Saturday, and a 37% decrease on Sunday, relative to Monday-Thursday levels. The corresponding changes in MV volatile organic carbon (VOC) emissions were an 8% increase on Friday, an 8% decrease on Saturday, and a 15% decrease on Sunday. Modeling these MV emissions changes explained the observed weekend O3 effect very well. Furthermore, changes to the mass of MV NOx emissions were the main contributor to O3 differences rather than changes to the timing of MV emissions. Ozone increases on weekends were caused by NOx emission decreases, because O3 formation is strongly VOC-limited throughout most of the LA area.     

Effects of age and food availability on diel vertical migration of Calanus pacificus

Age-specific differences in diel vertical migration behavior of Calanus pacificus were investigated in a 58 d (30 April–26 June, 1981) experiment in the Scripps Institution of Oceanography Deep Tank, La Jolla, California, USA; the experiment spanned three successive generations of copepods. The onset of vertical migration behavior occurred in the first feeding stage, Nauplius III. The amplitude of vertical migration gradually increased with age, becoming maximal in the late copepodite stages. Night depths remained constant with age while daytime depths increased. The migratory behavior of late copepodite stages was influenced by food availability. When phytoplankton was abundant and individual ingestion rates were high, copepodites performed high-amplitude migrations. As food availability declined, however, and the competition for food increased, migration amplitudes decreased and then ceased altogether so that copepodites remained in the relatively food-rich surface waters at all times. We suggest that hunger is the primary factor controlling vertical migration behavior.     

Optical characterization of primary productivity across a coastal front

Methods for the remote estimation of phytoplankton biomass and production rates using multiplatform sampling strategies are essential for the better understanding of oceanic bio-geochemical cycles. Recent advances in remote sensing of ocean color have made synoptic estimation of phytoplankton biomass attainable. While considerable success has been achieved in the estimation of plant biomass, the synoptic estimation of phytoplankton rates of production has been inadequate. Rapid shipboard estimates of the vertical distribution of primary productivity, on mesoscale spatial scales and event-time scales, are needed to provide both surface validation and data for the development of bio-optical models linking production to the optical characteristics of the water column. This study details the primary productivity and optical properties of a frontal region in July 1985 along 35°50N in the Southern California Bight which is shown to be consistent with the concurrent high-performance liquid-chromatography pigment-analysis. We describe here a quasi-synoptic shipboard bio-optical sampling strategy across a frontal region as an example of time-corrected data for assessing phytoplankton production in highly variable ocean regions.     

Adapting cities to climate change – exploring the flood risk management role of green infrastructure landscapes

There is now an emerging sense of the scope and nature of response that can be implemented at building and neighbourhood scales to help adapt cities and urban areas to the changing climate. In comparison, the role of larger natural and semi-natural landscapes that surround and permeate cities is less well understood. Addressing this knowledge gap, this paper outlines two case studies that describe and map the flood risk management functions offered by green infrastructure landscapes situated within the Urban Mersey Basin in North West England. The case studies establish that areas potentially exposed to flooding can be located at some distance, and within different jurisdictions, from upstream areas where the flood hazard may be generated and could be moderated via functions provided by green infrastructure landscapes. This raises planning and governance challenges connected to supporting and enhancing flood risk management functions provided by green infrastructure landscapes.     

Modeling freshwater fish distributions using multiscale landscape data: A case study of six narrow range endemics

Species distribution models (SDMs) have become integral tools in scientific research and conservation planning. Despite progress in the assessment of various statistical models for use in SDMs, little has been done in way of evaluating appropriate ecological models. In this paper, we evaluate the multiscale filter framework as a suitable theoretical model for predicting freshwater fish distributions in the upper Green River system (Ohio River drainage), USA. The spatial distributions of six fishes with contrasting biogeographies were modeled using boosted regression trees and multiscale landscape data. Species biogeography did not appear to affect predictive performance and all models performed well statistically with receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) ranging from 0.87 to 0.98. Predictive maps show accurate estimations of ranges for five of six species based on historical collections. The relative influence of each type of environmental feature and spatial scale varied markedly with between species. A hierarchical effect was detected for narrowly distributed species. These species were highly influenced by soil composition at larger spatial scales and land use/land cover (LULC) patterns at more proximal scales. Conversely, LULC pattern was the most influential feature for widely distributed at all spatial scales. Using multiscale data capable of capturing hierarchical landscape influences allowed production of accurate predictive models and provided further insight into factors controlling freshwater fish distributions.     

Parental care and sexual size dimorphism in wasps and bees

Sexual size dimorphism, in which one sex is larger than the other, occurs when body size has differential effects on the fitness of males and females. Mammals and birds usually have male-biased size dimorphism, probably because of strong sexual competition among males. Invertebrates usually have female-biased size dimorphism, perhaps because their inflexible exoskeletons limit ovary size, leading to a strong correlation between female body size and fecundity. In this paper, we test whether an additional factor, the type of parental care provided, affects the degree of sexual size dimorphism. Among wasps and bees, there is a contrast between provisioning taxa, in which females must gather and transport heavy loads of provisions to nests they have constructed, and non-provisioning taxa, in which females lay eggs but do not construct nests or transport provisions. Males have no role in parental care in either case. An analysis of British wasps and bees shows that provisioning taxa have significantly more female-biased size dimorphism than non-provisioning taxa. This is true for simple cross‑species comparisons and after controlling for phylogeny. Our data imply that the demands of carrying provision loads are at least part of the explanation for this pattern. Thus, sexual size dimorphism is greatest in pompilid wasps, which carry the heaviest prey items. Bees, which transport minute pollen grains, exhibit the least dimorphism. We also find that cavity‑nesting species, in which nest construction costs may be minimized, exhibit reduced dimorphism, but this was not significant after controlling for phylogeny.     

Quantifying species recovery and conservation success to develop an IUCN Green List of Species

Stopping declines in biodiversity is critically important, but it is only a first step toward achieving more ambitious conservation goals. The absence of an objective and practical definition of species recovery that is applicable across taxonomic groups leads to inconsistent targets in recovery plans and frustrates reporting and maximization of conservation impact. We devised a framework for comprehensively assessing species recovery and conservation success. We propose a definition of a fully recovered species that emphasizes viability, ecological functionality, and representation; and use counterfactual approaches to quantify degree of recovery. This allowed us to calculate a set of 4 conservation metrics that demonstrate impacts of conservation efforts to date (conservation legacy); identify dependence of a species on conservation actions (conservation dependence); quantify expected gains resulting from conservation action in the medium term (conservation gain); and specify requirements to achieve maximum plausible recovery over the long term (recovery potential). These metrics can incentivize the establishment and achievement of ambitious conservation targets. We illustrate their use by applying the framework to a vertebrate, an invertebrate, and a woody and an herbaceous plant. Our approach is a preliminary framework for an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Green List of Species, which was mandated by a resolution of IUCN members in 2012. Although there are several challenges in applying our proposed framework to a wide range of species, we believe its further development, implementation, and integration with the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species will help catalyze a positive and ambitious vision for conservation that will drive sustained conservation action.     

Assessing the shelf life of cost‐efficient conservation plans for species at risk across gradients of agricultural land use

High costs of land in agricultural regions warrant spatial prioritization approaches to conservation that explicitly consider land prices to produce protected‐area networks that accomplish targets efficiently. However, land‐use changes in such regions and delays between plan design and implementation may render optimized plans obsolete before implementation occurs. To measure the shelf life of cost‐efficient conservation plans, we simulated a land‐acquisition and restoration initiative aimed at conserving species at risk in Canada's farmlands. We accounted for observed changes in land‐acquisition costs and in agricultural intensity based on censuses of agriculture taken from 1986 to 2011. For each year of data, we mapped costs and areas of conservation priority designated using Marxan. We compared plans to test for changes through time in the arrangement of high‐priority sites and in the total cost of each plan. For acquisition costs, we measured the savings from accounting for prices during site selection. Land‐acquisition costs and land‐use intensity generally rose over time independent of inflation (24–78%), although rates of change were heterogeneous through space and decreased in some areas. Accounting for spatial variation in land price lowered the cost of conservation plans by 1.73–13.9%, decreased the range of costs by 19–82%, and created unique solutions from which to choose. Despite the rise in plan costs over time, the high conservation priority of particular areas remained consistent. Delaying conservation in these critical areas may compromise what optimized conservation plans can achieve. In the case of Canadian farmland, rapid conservation action is cost‐effective, even with moderate levels of uncertainty in how to implement restoration goals.     

Indicator Taxa, Rapid Biodiversity Assessment, and Nestedness in an Endangered Ecosystem

Abstract: To prioritize areas for conservation, biologists and managers need information on species diversity in threatened habitats. The resources available for such inventories remain severely limited, increasing the need to develop speedier ways to estimate the status of target habitats. We present a study of the use of such techniques in the highly fragmented oak savannas of southern Ontario, including selection of indicator taxa, use of rapid biodiversity assessment based on morphospecies, and analysis of community structure. We found that butterflies and skippers can be used to predict richness among Hymenoptera in the study sites, which is consistent with the hypothesis that these easily surveyed Lepidoptera are good candidates for indicator status. Richness values for hymenoptera morphospecies in these savanna remnants were strongly correlated with species richness scores as estimated by systematists, although nonspecialists tended to "split" species into more than one morphospecies. Finally, both the Hymenoptera and Lepidoptera communities in these oak savannas exhibited a high degree of nestedness, suggesting that local extinctions, mostly undocumented, are important determinants of the richness patterns across these widely separated savanna study sites. We found no evidence of significant spatial autocorrelation, probably because of the wide separation of study sites.