Scenario analysis of perspective change to support climate adaptation: lessons from a pilot study on Dutch river management

Climate adaptation is a complex task surrounded by uncertainty. To support climate adaptation policies, a new scenario approach is pursued to explore possible discontinuous future developments of societal perspectives on climate adaptation issues. The scenario approach was tested for a case study on Dutch river management. In a series of scenario development workshops, a select group of stakeholders explored the perspectives on the management of the River Meuse in the past, present, and future. The process was supported by an analytical perspectives mapping tool to illustrate and analyze the development of perspectives over time. The process and analytical tools contributed to insight into the drivers of perspective change for the case study at hand. Moreover, the stakeholders highlighted the potential of the approach for water management policy for creating awareness about the plurality of perspectives and the dynamics of perspective change, monitoring perspectives and perspective change as part of a flexible policy approach, and anticipating on the occurrence of shock events. Further work is required to better represent the social dynamics of perspectives change, to better empirically ground the perspective change model, and to apply integrated water models in the scenario development process to assess water–society interactions.     

Impacts of Surface Gold Mining on Land Use Systems in Western Ghana

Land use conflicts are becoming increasingly apparent from local to global scales. Surface gold mining is an extreme source of such a conflict, but mining impacts on local livelihoods often remain unclear. Our goal here was to assess land cover change due to gold surface mining in Western Ghana, one of the world’s leading gold mining regions, and to study how these changes affected land use systems. We used Landsat satellite images from 1986–2002 to map land cover change and field interviews with farmers to understand the livelihood implications of mining-related land cover change. Our results showed that surface mining resulted in deforestation (58%), a substantial loss of farmland (45%) within mining concessions, and widespread spill-over effects as relocated farmers expand farmland into forests. This points to rapidly eroding livelihood foundations, suggesting that the environmental and social costs of Ghana’s gold boom may be much higher than previously thought.     

Implications of geographic variability on Comparative Toxicity Potentials of Cu, Ni and Zn in freshwaters of Canadian ecoregions

Current methods of estimating potential environmental impacts of metals in hazard and Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) do not consider differences in chemistry and landscape properties between geographic sites. Here, we developed and applied a model for regional aquatic impact characterization of metals using an updated method for estimating environmental fate factor (FF), bioavailability factor (BF) and aquatic ecotoxicity factor (EF). We applied the model to analyze differences in Comparative Toxicity Potentials (CTPs) of Cu, Ni and Zn for 24 Canadian ecoregions. The combined impacts of regional variability in ambient chemistry (in particular DOC, pH and hardness) and landscape properties (water residence time) can change the CTPs of these metals for freshwater by up to three orders of magnitude and change the relative ranking of metal hazard between ecoregions. Variation among Canadian freshwater chemistries and landscape characteristics influence the FFs within two orders of magnitude, BFs within two orders of magnitude for Ni and Zn and four orders of magnitude for Cu, and EFs within one order of magnitude. Sensitivity of metal FFs to environmental parameters alone spans three orders of magnitude when a constant water chemistry was used for all ecoregions. These results indicate that application of regionalised metal CTPs can have a significant influence in the analysis of ecotoxicological impacts in the life cycle assessment of products and processes.     

Aggregation and ecotoxicity of CeO₂ nanoparticles in synthetic and natural waters with variable pH, organic matter concentration and ionic strength

The influence of pH (6.0-9.0), natural organic matter (NOM) (0-10 mg C/L) and ionic strength (IS) (1.7-40 mM) on 14 nm CeO₂ NP aggregation and ecotoxicity towards the alga Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata was assessed following a central composite design. Mean NP aggregate sizes ranged between 200 and 10000 nm. Increasing pH and IS enhanced aggregation, while increasing NOM decreased mean aggregate sizes. The 48 h-E_rC20s ranged between 4.7 and 395.8 mg CeO₂/L. An equation for predicting the 48 h-E_rC20 (48 h-E_rC20 = −1626.4 × (pH) + 109.45 × (pH)² + 116.49 × ([NOM]) − 14.317 × (pH) × ([NOM]) + 6007.2) was developed. In a validation study with natural waters the predicted 48 h-E_rC20 was a factor 1.08-2.57 lower compared to the experimental values.     

Temporal variations of atmospheric aerosol in four European urban areas

Purpose

The concentrations of PM₁₀ mass, PM_2.5 mass and particle number were continuously measured for 18 months in urban background locations across Europe to determine the spatial and temporal variability of particulate matter.

Methods

Daily PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 samples were continuously collected from October 2002 to April 2004 in background areas in Helsinki, Athens, Amsterdam and Birmingham. Particle mass was determined using analytical microbalances with precision of 1 ??g. Pre- and post-reflectance measurements were taken using smoke-stain reflectometers. One-minute measurements of particle number were obtained using condensation particle counters.

Results

The 18-month mean PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 mass concentrations ranged from 15.4 ??g/m³ in Helsinki to 56.7 ??g/m³ in Athens and from 9.0 ??g/m³ in Helsinki to 25.0 ??g/m³ in Athens, respectively. Particle number concentrations ranged from 10,091 part/cm³ in Helsinki to 24,180 part/cm³ in Athens with highest levels being measured in winter. Fine particles accounted for more than 60% of PM₁₀ with the exception of Athens where PM_2.5 comprised 43% of PM₁₀. Higher PM mass and number concentrations were measured in winter as compared to summer in all urban areas at a significance level p?Conclusions Significant quantitative and qualitative differences for particle mass across the four urban areas in Europe were observed. These were due to strong local and regional characteristics of particulate pollution sources which contribute to the heterogeneity of health responses. In addition, these findings also bear on the ability of different countries to comply with existing directives and the effectiveness of mitigation policies.     

Improved phosphorus use efficiency in agriculture: a key requirement for its sustainable use

Mineral phosphorus (P) fertilizers processed from fossil reserves have enhanced food production over the past 50 years and, hence, the welfare of billions of people. Fertilizer P has, however, not only been used to lift the fertility level of formerly poor soils, but also allowed people to neglect the reuse of P that humans ingest in the form of food and excrete again as faeces and urine and also in other organic wastes. Consequently, P mainly moves in a linear direction from mines to distant locations for crop production, processing and consumption, where a large fraction eventually may become either agronomically inactive due to over-application, unsuitable for recycling due to fixation, contamination or dilution, and harmful as a polluting agent of surface water. This type of P use is not sustainable because fossil phosphate rock reserves are finite. Once the high quality phosphate rock reserves become depleted, too little P will be available for the soils of food-producing regions that still require P supplements to facilitate efficient utilization of resources other than P, including other nutrients. The paper shows that the amounts of P applied in agriculture could be considerably smaller by optimizing land use, improvement of fertilizer recommendations and application techniques, modified livestock diets, and adjustment of livestock densities to available land. Such a concerted set of measures is expected to reduce the use of P in agriculture whilst maintaining crop yields and minimizing the environmental impact of P losses. The paper also argues that compensation of the P exported from farms should eventually be fully based on P recovered from ‘wastes’, the recycling of which should be stimulated by policy measures.     

Toxicity assessment of a common laundry detergent using the freshwater flagellate Euglena gracilis

Synthetic detergents are among the commonly used chemicals in everyday life. Detergents, reaching aquatic environments through domestic and municipal wastewater, can cause many different effects in aquatic organisms. The present study was aimed at the toxicity evaluation of a commonly used laundry detergent, Ariel, using the freshwater flagellate Euglena gracilis as a biotest organism. Different parameters of the flagellate like motility, swimming velocity, cell shape, gravitactic orientation, photosynthesis and concentration of light harvesting pigments were used as end points for the toxicity assessment. No Observed Effect Concentration (NOEC) and EC₅₀ values were calculated for the end point parameters at four different incubation times, i.e. 0, 6, 24 and 72 h. After 72 h incubation, swimming velocity of the cells was found to be the most sensitive parameter giving NOEC and EC₅₀ values of 10.8 and 34 mg L⁻¹, respectively. After 72 h exposure to the detergent, chlorophyll a and total carotenoids were significantly decreased in cultures treated with Ariel at concentrations of 50 mg L⁻¹ and above while chlorophyll b significantly decreased at concentrations above 750 mg L⁻¹. The maximum inhibitory effect on the quantum yield of photosystem II was observed after 24 h exposure and thereafter a recovery trend was observed. Motility, gravitaxis and cell shape were strongly impaired immediately upon exposure to the detergent, but with increasing exposure time these parameters showed acclimatization to the stress and thus the NOEC values obtained after 72 h were higher than those immediately after exposure.     

Effects of C60 nanoparticle exposure on earthworms (Lumbricus rubellus) and implications for population dynamics

Effects of C₆₀ nanoparticles (nominal concentrations 0, 15.4 and 154 mg/kg soil) on mortality, growth and reproduction of Lumbricus rubellus earthworms were assessed. C₆₀ exposure had a significant effect on cocoon production, juvenile growth rate and mortality. These endpoints were used to model effects on the population level. This demonstrated reduced population growth rate with increasing C₆₀ concentrations. Furthermore, a shift in stage structure was shown for C₆₀ exposed populations, i.e. a larger proportion of juveniles. This result implies that the lower juvenile growth rate due to exposure to C₆₀ resulted in a larger proportion of juveniles, despite increased mortality among juveniles. Overall, this study indicates that C₆₀ exposure may seriously affect earthworm populations. Furthermore, it was demonstrated that juveniles were more sensitive to C₆₀ exposure than adults.     

Assessing the recovery potential of alpine moss-sedge heath: reciprocal transplants along a nitrogen deposition gradient

The potential of alpine moss-sedge heath to recover from elevated nitrogen (N) deposition was assessed by transplanting Racomitrium lanuginosum shoots and vegetation turfs between 10 elevated N deposition sites (8.2-32.9 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) and a low N deposition site, Ben Wyvis (7.2 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹). After two years, tissue N of Racomitrium shoots transplanted from higher N sites to Ben Wyvis only partially equilibrated to reduced N deposition whereas reciprocal transplants almost matched the tissue N of indigenous moss. Unexpectedly, moss shoot growth was stimulated at higher N deposition sites. However, moss depth and biomass increased in turfs transplanted to Ben Wyvis, apparently due to slower shoot turnover (suggested to result partly from decreased tissue C:N slowing decomposition), whilst abundance of vascular species declined. Racomitrium heath has the potential to recover from the impacts of N deposition; however, this is constrained by the persistence of enhanced moss tissue N contents.