Bayesian analysis of Jolly-Seber type models

We propose the use of finite mixtures of continuous distributions in modelling the process by which new individuals, that arrive in groups, become part of a wildlife population. We demonstrate this approach using a data set of migrating semipalmated sandpipers (Calidris pussila) for which we extend existing stopover models to allow for individuals to have different behaviour in terms of their stopover duration at the site. We demonstrate the use of reversible jump MCMC methods to derive posterior distributions for the model parameters and the models, simultaneously. The algorithm moves between models with different numbers of arrival groups as well as between models with different numbers of behavioural groups. The approach is shown to provide new ecological insights about the stopover behaviour of semipalmated sandpipers but is generally applicable to any population in which animals arrive in groups and potentially exhibit heterogeneity in terms of one or more other processes.     

Territory characteristics and coexistence with heterospecifics in the Dartford warbler <Emphasis Type="Italic">Sylvia undata</Emphasis> across a habitat gradient

The study of successional gradients may help to understand the relative influence of habitat structure and competition on territory characteristics. Here, we evaluate the effects of vegetation cover, conspecific and heterospecific densities, and distance to the nearest neighbor on territory size, shape, and overlap in insectivorous birds. We studied these effects along a gradient of postfire habitat regeneration in which foliage cover and densities of focal species varied several-fold. We delineate 197 territories (minimum convex polygons) of the shrub-dwelling Dartford warbler (Sylvia undata) and 255 of the syntopic Sardinian (Sylvia melanocephala), subalpine (Sylvia cantillans) and melodious (Hippolais polyglotta) warblers at three plots in NE Catalonia (Spain and France) in 1987–2005. After accounting for the effect of the number of locations used to delineate polygons, generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) showed a reduction in territory area of the Dartford warbler as conspecific density increased and distance to nearest neighbor decreased, in accordance with the contender pressure hypothesis for territory size regulation. Heterospecific density was not included in the final model of territory size and the effect of habitat structure was marginal. Territory roundness was positively correlated with its size and with conspecific density, probably in relation to energetic constraints, and negatively with heterospecific density. Territorial exclusion was almost complete among Dartford warblers, whereas interspecific territory overlap was extensive and tended to increase with heterospecific density and with structural diversity along the gradient. Our results support the hypothesis that Mediterranean warbler coexistence derives from ecological segregation and not from interspecific territoriality.     

Ecosystem services and hydroelectricity in Central America: modelling service flows with fuzzy logic and expert knowledge

Because ecosystem services are generally not produced and used in the same place, their assessment should consider the flows of services from ecosystems to users. These flows depend on the characteristics and spatial distribution of ecosystems and users, the spatial relationships between them, and the presence of filters or barriers between ecosystems and users. The objective of this paper is to map the ecosystem services provided to the Costa Rican and Nicaraguan hydroelectric sectors, which are crucial sectors for national sustainable development and depend directly on hydrological ecosystem services. The paper presents an approach for modelling the flows of multiple services from diverse ecosystems to diverse users through different kinds of filters in a landscape. The approach uses expert knowledge and fuzzy numbers to handle uncertainties. The analyses for Costa Rica and Nicaragua show how the approach helps identify priority areas for the conservation and restoration of forests for the services they provide to the hydroelectric sector. As such, it is a useful tool for defining spatially targeted policies for the conservation of ecosystem services and for involving the users of ecosystem services in ecosystem management.     

Land-cover changes in and around a National Park in a mountain landscape in the Pyrenees

The current state of Mediterranean mountain areas has been driven by two main factors: intense traditional human activity and the dynamics of the ecosystem itself. In this study, we examine land-cover changes in a National Park in the Pyrenees mountains (NE Iberian Peninsula), which was designated a protected area 55 years ago. First, we have analyzed spatio-temporal changes in land-cover pattern and forest dynamics from 1957 to 2005. During this period, land-cover dynamics consisted of two main processes: (i) expansion of the forest area and (ii) increasing cover of forests already present in 1957. To analyze the role of the conservation level of the park, we have also compared the results obtained within the park with those of unprotected, peripheral areas. In the two areas with different protection level, dense forests increased throughout the period because of the reduction in forestry activities. The peripheral area showed a higher rate of forest-cover change from 1957 to 2005 compared to the National Park. This higher increase in forest cover in the peripheral area could be related to a higher proportion in the National Park of screes and rocky areas and to the decline and transformation of forest activities in these peripheral, lower elevation areas.     

Changes in bird‐migration patterns associated with human‐induced mortality

Many bird populations have recently changed their migratory behavior in response to alterations of the environment. We collected data over 16 years on male Great Bustards (Otis tarda), a species showing a partial migratory pattern (sedentary and migratory birds coexisting in the same breeding groups). We conducted population counts and radio tracked 180 individuals to examine differences in survival rates between migratory and sedentary individuals and evaluate possible effects of these differences on the migratory pattern of the population. Overall, 65% of individuals migrated and 35% did not. The average distance between breeding and postbreeding areas of migrant individuals was 89.9 km, and the longest average movement of sedentary males was 3.8 km. Breeding group and migration distance had no effect on survival. However, mortality of migrants was 2.4 to 3.5 times higher than mortality of sedentary birds. For marked males, collision with power lines was the main cause of death from unnatural causes (37.6% of all deaths), and migratory birds died in collisions with power lines more frequently than sedentary birds (21.3% vs 6.3%). The percentage of sedentary individuals increased from 17% in 1997 to 45% in 2012. These results were consistent with data collected from radio‐tracked individuals: The proportion of migratory individuals decreased from 86% in 1997–1999 to 44% in 2006–2010. The observed decrease in the migratory tendency was not related to climatic changes (temperatures did not change over the study period) or improvements in habitat quality (dry cereal farmland area decreased in the main study area). Our findings suggest that human‐induced mortality during migration may be an important factor shaping the migration patterns of species inhabiting humanized landscapes.     

Metabolic transformations of acquired lucibufagins by firefly “femmes fatales”

Summary. Female Photuris fireflies sequester defensive steroidal pyrones (lucibufagins) from male fireflies of the genus Photinus. Lucibufagin analyses of Photuris females and Photinus ignitus males show that the lucibufagin mixtures of predator and prey differ in their composition. Analyses of whole body extracts showed that P. ignitus males contain a mixture of eight non-glycosylated lucibufagins, composed mostly of compounds with two oxygenated positions in the steroidal A-ring (C-3, C-5). After feeding on P. ignitus males, Photuris females contain six major lucibufagins. Three of these compounds are not present in the prey, including the novel lucibufagin glycoside 5β,11α-dihydroxy-12-oxo-3β-O-β-D-xylopyranosylbufalin, and two other lucibufagins with a trioxygenated A-ring (C-2, C-3, C-5). These results indicate that Photuris females transform the sequestered lucibufagins both by glycosylation and oxidation, which could affect the systemic transportability of these compounds due to an increase in their polarity. Received 18 February 1999; accepted 19 April 1999.     

Within-plant allocation of a chemical defense in Secale cereale. Is concentration the appropriate currency of allocation?

Summary. The among-leaves allocation of DIBOA, a hydroxamic acid associated with plant resistance, in the shoot of rye (Secale cereale) was evaluated over the vegetative development of the plant. The appropriateness of using the concentration of secondary metabolites, DIBOA in this case, as the parameter to evaluate defense allocation in plants is discussed. Both biological and statistical arguments are put forward to suggest that allocation of chemical defenses should refer to absolute content and not to concentration. Results showed that leaf age was significantly linked to leaf concentration of DIBOA, young leaves having higher concentrations. In contrast, leaf content of DIBOA, our proposed currency of allocation, was not significantly higher in younger leaves. Furthermore, a regression analysis showed that the DIBOA content of leaves was better explained by the leaf relative biomass (proportion of shoot biomass) than by leaf biomass itself. It is suggested that, rather than leaf age, leaf relative biomass is the major factor determining DIBOA allocation in rye shoots. It is proposed that studies addressing within-plant defense allocation should use chemical defense content as the currency, emphasizing the major factors driving this process and its underlying mechanisms. Likewise, it is proposed that studies aiming at characterizing optimal patterns of plant defense should use chemical defense concentration as the currency, and be accompanied by evaluations of the actual resistance against herbivores of the plant parts analyzed, together with the effect on plant fitness. Received 19 February 1999; accepted 28 April 1999.     

Differential timing and latitudinal variation in sex ratio of Aquatic Warblers during the autumn migration

Differential migration has been extensively reported in spring, but less so in autumn, particularly in relation to sex in monomorphic bird species. Here, we analysed the autumn passage of a monomorphic, globally threatened passerine, the Aquatic Warbler Acrocephalus paludicola throughout Western Europe, with regard to age and sex. We showed that, overall, adults migrated earlier than first-year birds, and males migrated earlier than females during the autumn migration. This may be caused by an overall social dominance of adults over immatures, and differentiated migration strategy of males and females. In addition, we found male-skewed sex proportions, with a tendency to an equalised ratio in more southern stopover sites. This may indicate a male bias in the global population or different migration strategies of the sexes. Differential migration may cause the age and sex classes to be exposed differently to various threats affecting demographic structure of the species.     

Prevalence and clinical significance of anticardiolipin antibodies in pregnancies complicated by parvovirus B19 infection

Anticardiolipin antibodies were measured in 60 pregnant women with acute parvovirus B19 infection. Test results for eight (13.3 per cent) women were positive for anticardiolipin antibody. Six of these eight women became negative later, yielding a prevalence of anticardiolipin antibodies of 3.3 per cent (2/60) 6 months after acute parvovirus B19 infection. Anticardiolipin antibody positivity was not associated with an increased risk of abortion, fetal death, or maternal complications. This study suggests that there is an elevated frequency of anticardiolipin antibodies in pregnant women with acute parvovirus B19, probably representing an epiphenomenon. However, this is not associated with an adverse maternal or perinatal outcome.