Bayesian analysis of Jolly-Seber type models

We propose the use of finite mixtures of continuous distributions in modelling the process by which new individuals, that arrive in groups, become part of a wildlife population. We demonstrate this approach using a data set of migrating semipalmated sandpipers (Calidris pussila) for which we extend existing stopover models to allow for individuals to have different behaviour in terms of their stopover duration at the site. We demonstrate the use of reversible jump MCMC methods to derive posterior distributions for the model parameters and the models, simultaneously. The algorithm moves between models with different numbers of arrival groups as well as between models with different numbers of behavioural groups. The approach is shown to provide new ecological insights about the stopover behaviour of semipalmated sandpipers but is generally applicable to any population in which animals arrive in groups and potentially exhibit heterogeneity in terms of one or more other processes.     

Trace elements in muscle of three fish species from Todos os Santos Bay,Bahia State,Brazil

In this study, an analysis was performed on the concentrations of the trace elements Al, As, Ba, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, V, and Zn in muscle of two carnivorous and one planktivorous fish species collected at Todos os Santos Bay (BTS). The accumulation order of the trace elements in Lutjanus analis was Al >Zn >Fe >Cr >Ba >Ni. In Cetengraulis edentulus, the order was Al >Fe >Zn >Cr >Ni >Mn >As. In the species Diapterus rhombeus, the order was Al >Fe >Zn >Cr >Ni >Mn >Cd. To determine the risk related to the consumption of fish, toxicity guidelines were used as standard references. It was observed that the species C. edentulus contained concentrations of As exceeding WHO limits, but these concentrations were acceptable according to the Agência Nacional de Vigilância Sanitária (ANVISA) guidelines. Cd levels were found only in D. rhombeus and in low concentrations according to the determinations of WHO and ANVISA. Pb levels were not detected in any of the three fish species. The analyzed elements did not differ statistically according to the species and feeding habits. The results point to possible risks of human contamination by As related to the consumption of the fish species C. edentulus from the BTS.     

Particulate matter levels in a South American megacity: the metropolitan area of Lima-Callao,Peru

The temporal and spatial trends in the variability of PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 from 2010 to 2015 in the metropolitan area of Lima-Callao, Peru, are studied and interpreted in this work. The mean annual concentrations of PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 have ranges (averages) of 133–45 μg m^?3 (84 μg m^?3) and 35–16 μg m^?3 (26 μg m^?3) for the monitoring sites under study. In general, the highest annual concentrations are observed in the eastern part of the city, which is a result of the pattern of persistent local winds entering from the coast in a south-southwest direction. Seasonal fluctuations in the particulate matter (PM) concentrations are observed; these can be explained by subsidence thermal inversion. There is also a daytime pattern that corresponds to the peak traffic of a total of 9 million trips a day. The PM_2.5 value is approximately 40% of the PM₁₀ value. This proportion can be explained by PM₁₀ re-suspension due to weather conditions. The long-term trends based on the Theil-Sen estimator reveal decreasing PM₁₀ concentrations on the order of ?4.3 and ?5.3% year^?1 at two stations. For the other stations, no significant trend is observed. The metropolitan area of Lima-Callao is ranked 12th and 16th in terms of PM₁₀ and PM_2.5, respectively, out of 39 megacities. The annual World Health Organization thresholds and national air quality standards are exceeded. A large fraction of the Lima population is exposed to PM concentrations that exceed protection thresholds. Hence, the development of pollution control and reduction measures is paramount.     

A Novel Formulation for Designing a Monitoring Strategy: Application to the Design of a River Quality Monitoring System

In this work, we propose a technique to automatically optimize the monitoring of any distributed indicator (concentration of a substance along a river, blood pressure of a patient over time, etc.) for which a reliable estimate is previously available. From a mathematical point of view, the problem is based on obtaining a reliable estimate of the chosen indicator (e.g., by numerical simulation), and then solving a multi-objective optimization problem (with mixed real and integer variables) whose solution must provide an efficient and satisfactory monitoring strategy. As an illustrative case, we show the steps to follow in order to implement that strategy when designing a system for monitoring water quality in a river. Finally, we present and analyze the results when applying the proposed technique to study a real case in the Neuse River (North Carolina, USA).     

A methodology to identify representative configurations of sensors for monitoring soil moisture

Soil moisture is the key link among hydroecological compartments, responding dynamically to sequences of atmospheric processes and management conditions and modulating physical, chemical, and biological processes in the soil. Currently, there are a variety of monitoring techniques to measure, directly or indirectly, the soil moisture. However, some practical issues remain open like the definition a priori of the number, location and depth of the monitoring points, and the impact of failing or poor performance soil moisture sensors. Here, we present a set of techniques, namely Δθ time series, wavelet filtering, and time stability, to identify representative points and monitoring depths through an analysis of hourly soil moisture time series for different configuration of the monitoring network. We used real data from a monitoring network consisting of seven monitoring points, each one with four EC-5 probes (Decagon Devices Inc., Pullman, WA) at 20, 40, 60, and 100?cm. The use of simple time series of Δθ allowed us to assess the spatiotemporal influence of the monitoring points, while the wavelet periodograms allowed us to get insight about the response of the monitoring points at different time scales. Both methods are easy to implement or adapt to specific conditions, being coherent to the results derived from time stability analysis. For our case study, we concluded that we could reallocate 16 sensors (out of 28) without a significant loss of information. However, the final decision strongly relies on a deep knowledge of the site features and the objectives of the monitoring network.     

Relevance of the economic crisis in chemical PM10 changes in a semi-arid industrial environment

This paper shows the changes in PM(10) levels and chemical composition in a region in southeast Spain between two periods: September 2005-August 2006 and June 2008-May 2009. PM(10) levels in this arid region, with a great number of cement, ceramic and related industries, have decreased in the second period in concordance with the reduction of industrial production due to the economic crisis and the closure of a cement plant. Annual average levels of PM(10) decreased from 41?μg?m(-3) in 2005 to 30?μg?m(-3) in 2008 (27%) and to 23?μg?m(-3) in 2009 (23%). The relative contribution of the different sources has not changed in the area in the latter period and the elements with mineral origin are the main components of the PM(10) composition. There is a reduction in the concentration of the components that have soil-related industries and crustal material resuspension as their main sources, mainly in the case of CO(3) (2-), Ca, Sr, Tl and Pb, but the seasonal patterns were the same in both periods. As a particular case, there is an uncoupling between the seasonal evolution of SO(2) and sulphates in the two study periods, which remarks the existence of a sulphate regional background that does not depend on SO(2) local emissions. The decrease of V, Ni and Tl levels reflects the reduction of the industrial activity during the crisis period, affecting mainly the ceramic sector characterised by a great decrease of Tl levels.     

Biomonitoring of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in heavily polluted aquatic environment in different fish species

The distribution and concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were determined in fish species (European perch Perca fluviatilis, northern pike Esox lucius, pike perch Sander lucioperca, wels catfish Silirus glanus, common carp Cyprinus carpio, European eel Anguilla anguilla, freshwater bream Abramis brama, goldfish Carassius auratus, and roach Rutilus rutilus) in a heavily polluted water reservoir Zemplínska ?írava (Slovakia). The study performed at two different time points 5?years apart (2004 and 2009) revealed serious PCB contamination of fish muscle tissue and significant interspecies as well as tissue-specific differences in PCB uptake by fish. Total PCBs broadly correlated with the trophic position of individual fish species within a food chain (P??0.05). The study has shown that the kind of fish, its feeding habit, and specific conditions of the habitat are mutually interrelated factors that are responsible for significant variations in fish body burdens. A tendency to PCB biomagnification was also proved in some fish species of this water reservoir.     

Workplace aerosol mass concentration measurement using optical particle counters

Direct-reading aerosol measurement usually uses the optical properties of airborne particles to detect and measure particle concentration. In the case of occupational hygiene, mass concentration measurement is often required. Two aerosol monitoring methods are based on the principle of light scattering: optical particle counting (OPC) and photometry. The former analyses the light scattered by a single particle, the latter by a cloud of particles. Both methods need calibration to transform the quantity of scattered light detected into particle concentration. Photometers are simpler to use and can be directly calibrated to measure mass concentration. However, their response varies not only with aerosol concentration but also with particle size distribution, which frequently contributes to biased measurement. Optical particle counters directly measure the particle number concentration and particle size that allows assessment of the particle mass provided the particles are spherical and of known density. An integrating algorithm is used to calculate the mass concentration of any conventional health-related aerosol fraction. The concentrations calculated thus have been compared with simultaneous measurements by conventional gravimetric sampling to check the possibility of field OPC calibration with real workplace aerosols with a view to further monitoring particle mass concentration. Aerosol concentrations were measured in the food industry using the OPC GRIMM? 1.108 and the CIP 10-Inhalable and CIP 10-Respirable (ARELCO?) aerosol samplers while meat sausages were being brushed and coated with calcium carbonate. Previously, the original OPC inlet had been adapted to sample inhalable aerosol. A mixed aerosol of calcium carbonate and fungi spores was present in the workplace. The OPC particle-size distribution and an estimated average particle density of both aerosol components were used to calculate the mass concentration. The inhalable and respirable aerosol fractions calculated from the OPC data are closely correlated with the results of the particle size-selective sampling using the CIP 10. Furthermore, the OPC data allow calculation of the thoracic fraction of workplace aerosol (not measured by sampling), which is interesting in the presence of allergenic particles like fungi spores. The results also show that the modified COP inlet adequately samples inhalable aerosol in the range of workplace particle-size distribution.     

Organochlorine pesticide residue levels in blood serum of inhabitants from Veracruz, Mexico

The objective of the present study was to monitor the levels of organochlorine pesticides HCB; α-, β-, γ-HCH; pp'DDE; op'DDT; and pp'DDT in blood serum of Veracruz, Mexico inhabitants. Organochlorine pesticides were analyzed in 150 blood serum samples that constituted that which remained after clinical analyses, using gas chromatography-electron-capture detection (GC-ECD). The results were expressed as milligrams per kilogram on fat basis and micrograms per liter on wet weight. Only the following pesticides were detected: p,p'-DDE was the major organochlorine component, detected in 100% of samples at mean 15.8 mg/kg and 8.4 μg/L; p,p'-DDT was presented in 41.3.% of monitored samples at mean 3.1 mg/kg and 1.4 μg/L; β-HCH was found in 48.6% of the samples at mean 4.9 mg/kg and 2.7 μg/L; op'DDT was determined to be in only 3.3% of monitored samples at mean 2.7 mg/kg and 1.4 μg/L. The pooled samples divided according to sex showed significant differences of β-HCH and pp'DDE concentrations in females. The samples grouped according to age presented the third tertile as more contaminated in both sexes, indicating age as a positively associated factor with serum organochlorine pesticide levels in Veracruz inhabitants.     

Apportionment of the airborne PM10 in Spain. Episodes of potential negative impact for human health

The particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 10 and 2.5 microns respectively (PM10 and PM2.5) constitutes one of the main air pollutants, which is currently regulated in Europe through Directive 2008/50/EC due to its proven harmful effects on human health. In this paper, the airborne PM10 samples collected in Zaragoza city during 2001-2009 were apportioned by statistical tools based on principal component analysis with absolute principal component scores (PCA-APCS). PM10 samples were characterized regarding their concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and water-soluble ions. PAH were analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry-mass spectrometry detection (GC-MS-MS) and ions were analyzed by ion chromatography. A total of five factors were identified by PCA-APCS corresponding to different anthropogenic and natural sources. This work was focused on analyzing in more detail those samples involving higher negative impact on human health, in particular, PM10 samples exceeding the daily PM10 limit value of 50 μg m(-3) according to Directive 2008/50/EC and samples with concentrations of benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) higher than the upper assessment threshold (BaP > 0.6 ng m(-3)) established by the Directive 2004/107/EC. Most of the exceedances of the daily PM10 limit value were associated with direct and indirect North-African long-range transport. During these exceedances, it was observed that anthropogenic pollution sources slightly decreased with regard to the natural sources. This indicated that episodes of high PM10 could have a natural origin associated with long-range transport from the African continent. On the contrary, those exceedances with regional contribution and samples with BaP concentrations higher than 0.6 ng m(-3) showed an important contribution of anthropogenic pollution sources increasing their negative impact on human health.