Meeting Concentration Targets in the Post-Kyoto World: Does Kyoto Further a Least Cost Strategy?

Preliminary analysis based on an aggregate model of global carbon emissions suggests that constraining emissions to the levels that would be imposed by compliance with the results of the Kyoto negotiations can increase the discounted cost of ultimately limiting atmospheric concentrations. Kyoto targets can be either too restrictive or too permissive depending upon the (currently unknown) trajectory of carbon emissions over the near- to medium-term and the (as yet unspecified) concentration target that frames long-term policy. The discounted cost of meeting low concentration targets like 450 ppmv. is diminished by allowing large sinks and/or by imposing more restrictive near-term emissions benchmarks (even if only Annex B countries are bound by the Kyoto accord). Conversely, the cost of achieving high concentration targets like 650 ppmv. is diminished by disallowing sinks and/or by imposing less restrictive emissions benchmarks. Intermediate concentration targets like 550 ppmv. look like high concentration targets (favoring no sinks and expanded near-term emissions) along low emissions paths; but they look like low concentration targets (favoring the opposite) along high emissions paths. Emissions trajectories that lie above the median, but not excessively so, represent cases for which adjustments in the Kyoto emissions benchmarks and/or negotiated allowances for sinks have the smallest effect on the cost of mitigation.     

The importance of tangible and intangible factors in human–carnivore coexistence

Conflict with humans is one of the major threats facing the world's remaining large carnivore populations, and understanding human attitudes is key to improving coexistence. We surveyed people living near Hwange National Park about their attitudes toward coexisting with lions. We used ordinal regression models with the results of the survey to investigate the importance of a range of tangible and intangible factors on attitudes. The variables investigated included the costs and benefits of wildlife presence, emotion, culture, religion, vulnerability, risk perception, notions of responsibility, and personal value orientations. This was for the purpose of effectively tailoring conservation efforts but also for ethical policy making. Intangible factors (e.g., fear and ecocentric values) were as important as, if not more important than, tangible factors (such as livestock losses) for understanding attitudes, based on the effect sizes of these variables. The degree to which participants’ fear of lions interfered with their daily activities was the most influential variable. The degree to which benefits accrue to households from the nearby protected area was also highly influential, as was number of livestock lost, number of dependents, ecocentric value orientation, and participation in conflict mitigation programs. Contrary to what is often assumed, metrics of livestock loss did not dominate attitudes to coexistence with lions. Furthermore, we found that socioeconomic variables may appear important when studied in isolation, but their effect may disappear when controlling for variables related to beliefs, perceptions, and past experiences. This raises questions about the widespread reliance on socioeconomic variables in the field of human–wildlife conflict and coexistence. To facilitate coexistence with large carnivores, we recommend measures that reduce fear (through education and through protective measures that reduce the need to be fearful), reduction of livestock losses, and ensuring local communities benefit from conservation. Ecocentric values also emerged as influential, highlighting the need to develop conservation initiatives tailored to local values.     

Value for Money: Protecting Endangered Species on Danish Heathland

Biodiversity policies in the European Union (EU) are mainly implemented through the Birds and Habitats Directives as well as the establishment of Natura 2000, a network of protected areas throughout the EU. Considerable resources must be allocated for fulfilling the Directives and the question of optimal allocation is as important as it is difficult. In general, economic evaluations of conservation targets at most consider the costs and seldom the welfare economic benefits. In the present study, we use welfare economic benefit estimates concerning the willingness-to-pay for preserving endangered species and for the aggregate area of heathland preserved in Denmark. Similarly, we obtain estimates of the welfare economic cost of habitat restoration and maintenance. Combining these welfare economic measures with expected species coverage, we are able to estimate the potential welfare economic contribution of a conservation network. We compare three simple nonprobabilistic strategies likely to be used in day-to-day policy implementation: i) a maximum selected area strategy, ii) a hotspot selection strategy, and iii) a minimizing cost strategy, and two more advanced and informed probabilistic strategies: i) a maximum expected coverage strategy and ii) a strategy for maximum expected welfare economic gain. We show that the welfare economic performance of the strategies differ considerably. The comparison between the expected coverage and expected welfare shows that for the case considered, one may identify an optimal protection level above which additional coverage only comes at increasing welfare economic loss.     

Assessment of long-term pH developments in leachate from waste incineration residues.

Environmental assessment of residue disposal needs to account for long-term changes in leaching conditions. Leaching of heavy metals from incineration residues are highly affected by the leachate pH; the overall environmental consequences of disposing of these residues are therefore greatly influenced by changes in pH over time. The paper presents an approach for assessing pH changes in leachate from municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) air-pollution-control (APC) residues. Residue samples were subjected to a stepwise batch extraction method in order to obtain residue samples at a range of pH values (similar to common pH-dependence tests), and then on these samples to determine leaching of alkalinity as well as remaining solid phase alkalinity. On a range of APC residues covering various pretreatment and disposal options, this procedure was used to determine leachable and residual alkalinity as a function of pH. Mass balance calculations for typical disposal scenarios were used to provide data on pH as a function of the liquid-to-solid (L/S) ratio in the leaching system. Regardless of residue type and pretreatment, pH was found to stay above 7 for L/S ratios up to about 2000 L kg(-1) corresponding to about 100,000 years in typical landfill scenarios. It was found that pH changes were mainly governed by alkalinity decreases from leaching processes rather than neutralization reactions. The results suggest that leaching testing for assessment purposes should be carried out in the alkaline range, for example, at pH 9. The paper offers a thorough basis for further modelling of incineration residue leaching and for modelling the environmental consequences of landfilling and utilization of these residues.     

Persistence of testosterone and 17beta-estradiol in soils receiving swine manure or municipal biosolids

Natural and synthetic steroidal hormones can be carried to agricultural soil through fertilization with municipal biosolids, livestock manure, or poultry manure. The persistence and pathways of dissipation of [4-(14)C]-testosterone and of [4-(14)C]-17beta-estradiol in organic-amended soils were investigated using laboratory microcosms. Testosterone dissipation was investigated over a range of amendment concentrations, temperatures, and soil types. Under all conditions the parent compound and transformation products were dissipated within a few days. Addition of swine manure slurry to soil hastened the transformation of testosterone and 17beta-estradiol to the corresponding less hormonally active ketones, 4-androstene-3,17-dione and estrone. Two other testosterone transformation products, 5alpha-androstan-3,17-dione and 1,4-androstadiene-3,17-dione, were also detected. Experiments with sterilized soil and sterilized swine manure slurry suggested that the transformation of (14)C-labeled hormonal parent compounds was mainly caused by microorganisms in manure slurry, while mineralization of the hormones to (14)CO(2) required viable soil microorganisms. Organic amendments transiently inhibited the mineralization of [4-(14)C]-testosterone, perhaps by inhibiting soil microorganisms, or by enhancing sorption and reducing the bioavailability of testosterone or transformation products. Overall, organic amendments influenced the pathways and kinetics of testosterone and estradiol dissipation, but did not increase their persistence.     

用分布式混合试验系统模拟结构的倒塌行为

采用分布式混合试验系统模拟四层钢结构框架在强震下的倒塌行为。变形集中的首层作为试验对象,而上部结构作为数值子结构。各子结构通过协调器满足界面上的平衡和协调条件,并被协调器的输入输出接口封装起来。采用柔性的试验方案,可以在当前有限控制精度的限制下,灵活地处理边界条件。试验结果与日本E-D efense振动台足尺试验结果进行了对比,得到了类似的倒塌机制,证明混合试验有能力进行结构倒塌模拟,而误差主要来自于模型简化。     

Social demand for multiple benefits provided by Aleppo pine forest management in Catalonia,Spain

This paper estimates the social demand for key benefits provided by Aleppo pine forests in Catalonia that can be enhanced by management. These so-called externalities are the side effects of forest management on citizens’ welfare and can be either positive or negative. The externalities addressed are: biodiversity (measured as the number of tree species), accessibility for practicing recreational activities, CO₂ sequestration and annual burned area by wildfires. By the use of a choice experiment, an economic valuation method, we estimate in a joint manner people’s preferences for these externalities and show that there is a social demand for their enhanced provision. Based on these estimates, we construct three hypothetical scenarios reflecting the range of likely outcomes of different management strategies and calculate the social demand for these scenarios. Results show that the highest gains in terms of social benefits are obtained under a scenario that minimizes the burned area (2044.23 €/ha year). Our estimates show that an increase in the investment in forest management is in line with the social demand for forest benefits and the social support that exists for a related cost increase for inhabitants.     

Blood clinical-chemical parameters and feeding history in growing Japanese quail (Coturnix japonica) chicks exposed to Tris(1,3-dichloro-2-propyl) phosphate and Dechlorane Plus in ovo

Blood clinical-chemical parameters (BCCPs) are used to investigate physiological consequences attributed to exposure to anthropogenic stressors, such as exposure to Tris(1,3-dichloro-2-propyl) phosphate (TDCIPP) and Dechlorane Plus (DP), which are flame retardants (FRs), on avian health. Japanese quail (Coturnix japonica) were used as a model species to investigate individual and mixture effects of both FRs by injecting different concentrations (5, 50, or 500 ng/µL) of either of these compounds as well as a 1:1 mixture of both into fertilized eggs. To estimate post-hatching effects, 18 BCCPs were evaluated from 101 chicks at day 14. Albumin levels were found to be significantly elevated in the groups exposed to high doses of TDCIPP alone as well as a mixture of TDCIPP and DP. However, during the course of the study, the initial corn-based feed had to be substituted by a fishmeal-based feed. The 8 days consuming the new feed played a significant role on 12 of 18 BCCPs measured. Consequently, it is recommended that dietary habits need to be considered when investigating the physiological impact of contaminants using BCCPs as biomarkers in growing nestlings both in controlled in vivo and field experiments.     

Determination of total organic halogen (TOX) in humic acids after microwave-induced combustion

Chemically chlorinated organic matter as well as natural background humic acids contain significant amounts of organically bound halogens that must be determined for assessment of environmental pollution. In this work the use of ion chromatography (IC) and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) is proposed for the determination of total organic Cl, Br and I concentration in humic acids extracted from various forest soil horizons after a single digestion by microwave-induced combustion (MIC). Samples were pressed as pellets and combusted using 20 bar of oxygen and ammonium nitrate solution as igniter. Analytes were absorbed in diluted alkaline solution (50 mM (NH₄)₂CO₃) and a reflux step was applied after combustion to improve analyte recoveries (5 min, microwave power of 1400 W). The accuracy was evaluated using certified reference materials (CRM) and spiked samples. Using MIC the agreement with CRM values and spike recoveries was higher than 97% for all analytes. As an advantage over conventional procedures, using MIC it was possible to digest up to eight samples in only 25 min, obtaining a single solution suitable for all halogens determination in humic acids samples by different techniques (IC and ICP-MS). The limit of detection (3σ) for Cl, Br and I obtained by IC was 1.2, 2.5 and 4.3 μg g⁻¹ and by ICP-MS it was 1.4, 0.03 and 0.002 μg g⁻¹, respectively.