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31.
Chris J. Matthews David B. Newton Roger D. Braddock Bofu Yu 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2007,12(1):27-41
Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The
New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects)
and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of
two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various
inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and
Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex
processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness
of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition
System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the
sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss
the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring
the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing
these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method
estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown
that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different
metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock. 相似文献
32.
Charles S. Tapiero 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2005,9(4):201-206
Conclusion In this paper we have considered a specific environmental game emphasizing both control-prevention efforts and the propensity to pollute by a firm which adopts a given pollution abatement technology. A random payoff game was constructed and solved under a risk neutral assumption and quadratic utilities for both the firm and the environmental controller. The game thus defined, provides a wide range of interpretations and potential approaches for selecting a control-inspection policies to prevent environmental risks. There are of course many facets to this problem, which could be considered and have not been considered in sufficient depth. For example, more complex control mechanisms and liabilities, the effects of insurance and risk sharing, the application of cooperative efforts and subvention of pollution abatement investments (through tax incentives and their like), etc. have not been considered [5,7]. These are topics for further research. The basic presumption of this paper is that it is very difficult to fully enforce pollution prevention by firms, as a result, some controls are needed to ensure that firms be controlled so that appropriate efforts are carried. 相似文献
33.
Gottfried Tappeiner Ulrike Tappeiner Janette Walde 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2007,12(4):253-256
The complexity of today’s research problems increasingly demands that scientists move beyond the confines of their own discipline.
In this special issue, the basics of a transdisciplinary framework are established and problems analyzed in a specific discipline
are successfully integrated in this transdisciplinary network. The intent has been to go beyond only statements about the
importance of enabling early stage researchers to work across disciplinary boundaries, and to show that important discoveries
are being made at the intersection of disciplines. Embedding various research projects in a more global framework can meet
the demands of an interdisciplinary or transdisciplinary approach (especially for early stage researchers) and contribute
significantly to sustainable research. 相似文献
34.
A study on the orbit of air temperature movement 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Zong-Chang Yang 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2007,12(2):131-143
In this paper, we describe an air temperature movement by mapping its time series to the polar coordinates: the value of the
time series is plotted on the radial coordinate and the time on the angular coordinate. In this way, both the yearly and daily
air temperature movements from five different locations of China are used to demonstrate that, in an intuitionistic view,
air temperature movement is neither random nor chaotic, but has its own orbit. We then propose an elliptic orbit model for
the air temperature movement. Our proposed model provides quite good results when it is applied to the evaluation of yearly
air temperature movements in eight locations in various parts of the world, and the evaluation of daily air temperature movements
in five locations in Hunan Province of China on December 17, 2005. Results show that our approach provides a concise and helpful
model for air temperature analysis. 相似文献
35.
Assessing land use impacts on flood processes in complex terrain by using GIS and modeling approach 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Y. B. Liu F. De Smedt L. Hoffmann L. Pfister 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2005,9(4):227-235
A distributed hydrologic modeling and GIS approach is applied for the assessment of land use impact in the Steinsel sub-basin, Alzette, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg. The assessment focuses on the runoff contributions from different land use classes and the potential impact of land use changes on runoff generation. The results show that the direct runoff from urban areas is dominant for a flood event compared with runoff from other land use areas in this catchment, and tends to increase for small floods and for the dry season floods, whereas the interflow from forested, pasture and agricultural field areas contributes to the recession flow. Significant variations in flood volume, peak discharge, time to the peak, etc., are found from the model simulation based on the three hypothetical land use change scenarios. 相似文献
36.
Application of a checklist for quality assistance in environmental modelling to an energy model 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
James Risbey Jeroen van der Sluijs Penny Kloprogge Jerry Ravetz Silvio Funtowicz Serafin Corral Quintana 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2005,10(1):63-79
Large, complex energy models present considerable challenges to develop and test. Uncertainty assessments of such models provide only partial guidance on the quality of the results. We have developed a model quality assistance checklist to aid in this purpose. The model checklist provides diagnostic output in the form of a set of pitfalls for the model application. The checklist is applied here to an energy model for the problem of assessing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Use of the checklist suggests that results on this issue are contingent on a number of assumptions that are highly value-laden. When these assumptions are held fixed, the model is deemed capable of producing moderately robust results of relevance to climate policy over the longer term. Checklist responses also indicate that a number of details critical to policy choices or outcomes on this issue are not captured in the model, and model results should therefore be supplemented with alternative analyses. 相似文献
37.
本报告介绍DDT经金属对处理后降解产物的分析鉴定和有关反应机制的初步研究。 降解产物主要是用气相色谱—质谱联用分析鉴定的。水溶液中的DDT用Cu-Zn金属对还原其降解产物经鉴定是DDD、DDMS、DDE_t,它们是DDT分子脱去烷基碳原子上不同数目的氯原子的产物。而在Cu-Fe金属对作用下,水溶液中的DDT的还原则是同时得到四种不同类型的产物。它们是DDT脱去烷基碳原子上的1个和3个氯原子的DDD和DDE_t;DDT脱氯、氧化产物DBP和DBH;DDT脱去HCI生成的DDE;两个DDT分子二聚脱氯的产物TTTB和TTDB。 实验证明金属对对DDT的作用是催化还原反应,金属对起着催化剂和还原剂双重作用。通过实验结果对DDT在金属对作用下的反应机制进行了初步探讨。 相似文献
38.
餐厨垃圾对环境的污染和人们身心健康的危害日益显现,重庆市对餐厨垃圾的统一管理与处置基本还处于空白状态.本文介绍了国内外餐厨垃圾管理的政策和措施,剖析重庆城市餐厨垃圾污染的现状及原因,进而提出全市餐厨垃圾管理的总体思路,并着重从健全法律法规体系、转变政府管理职能、建立市场化机制及引导公众参与等方面提出了相应的对策建议. 相似文献
39.
掌握了解水系和水污染源状况,以便更好地控制水污染、保护水环境、合理利用水资源。发展工农业生产等具有重要战略意义。对抚顺市水系和水污染源进行了调查,结果表明:发源于抚顺市的河流5条,分别属于辽河水系、鸭绿江水系和黑龙江水系。水库120座,工业废水排放总量为4752.0975t/a。 相似文献
40.
久效磷对海洋微藻毒性机理的初步研究III.超氧化物歧化酶和过氧化物酶活性的变化 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
报道了久效磷对3种海洋微藻细胞内2种清除活性氧的关键性酶--超氧化物歧化酶和过氧化物酶活性的影响.结果显示:1.在久效磷的胁迫下,扁藻和三角褐指藻细胞的超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)活性均表现出下降的总变化趋势,而叉鞭金藻细胞的SOD活性时而上升,时而下降,在整个胁迫过程中呈现出无规律性的变化.2.随着久效磷胁迫时间的延长,3种微藻细胞的过氧化物酶活性均逐渐下降,表现出相同的变化规律性.这说明不同的藻种,久效磷对其细胞内酶活性的影响不尽相同.推测超氧化物歧化酶和过氧化物酶(POD)活性的降低是微藻细胞内过量产生活性氧,进而引起藻细胞膜脂过氧化伤害的主要原因之一. 相似文献