Robust Regression with Data-Dependent Regularization Parameters and Autoregressive Temporal Correlations

We introduce robust procedures for analyzing water quality data collected over time. One challenging task in analyzing such data is how to achieve robustness in presence of outliers while maintaining high estimation efficiency so that we can draw valid conclusions and provide useful advices in water management. The robust approach requires specification of a loss function such as the Huber, Tukey’s bisquare and the exponential loss function, and an associated tuning parameter determining the extent of robustness needed. High robustness is at the cost of efficiency loss in parameter loss. To this end, we propose a data-driven method which leads to more efficient parameter estimation. This data-dependent approach allows us to choose a regularization (tuning) parameter that depends on the proportion of “outliers” in the data so that estimation efficiency is maximized. We illustrate the proposed methods using a study on ammonium nitrogen concentrations from two sites in the Huaihe River in China, where the interest is in quantifying the trend in the most recent years while accounting for possible temporal correlations and “irregular” observations in earlier years.     

《环境监测 分析方法标准制修订技术导则》(HJ 168—2010)对土壤环境监测标准制修订适用性探讨

针对土壤环境监测的复杂性和特殊性,从空白试验、检出限、方法验证、质量控制和标准文本等方面,指出了《环境监测分析方法标准制修订技术导则》《HJ 168—2010》对土壤环境监测标准制修订工作的适用性和执行中存在的问题。提出,为保证土壤标准制修订质量和标准执行质量,应研究适宜土壤监测方法标准的质量控制指标体系和评价体系,及时修订《HJ 168—2010》或发布补充要求;对现有土壤监测方法标准进行技术评估,加强对于土壤标准制修订工作的指导和监管。     

江苏省2014-2016年臭氧污染区域特征分析

分析2014—2016年江苏省O₃污染状况,以及苏北、苏中和苏南3个典型区域O₃年度、季度、日变化和频度占比等分布特征。结果表明,江苏省的O₃空间分布呈现北低南高,2014—2016年的O₃超标占比由18.4%上升至34.9%;2016年苏北、苏中和苏南地区O₃-8h第90百分位数与2014年相比,上升2.7%,21.8%和3.3%;3个区域夏季O₃-8h均值最高,春、秋2季次之,冬季最低;O₃-1h日变化呈单峰状态,最低值出现在06:00—07:00,最高值出现在15:00—16:00;2016年3个地区的O₃频度占比均呈正态分布,主要集中在40~80 μg/m³,所占比例均>15%;苏中和苏南区域2016和2014年相比O₃频率占比的变化幅度较大,苏北地区变化幅度不大。指出,江苏省的O₃污染程度在逐年提高,污染范围从苏南逐渐往中部和北部城市扩大。     

WRF模式参数化方案对江西山地风电场的风模拟研究

在WRF模式中选取不同的陆面过程、边界层以及近地面层参数化方案,设计了6种不同的参数化方案组合,模拟江西省某高山风电场测风塔2016年1月和2017年1月逐时风速、风向,并与同期实测数据进行比较,选出MRF边界层参数、WSM3微物理过程参数和Noah陆面过程参数作为最优参数化组合方案。对最优参数化组合方案的模拟结果进行整一年的逐时模拟效果检验,结果表明：最优参数化组合方案对全年风速模拟效果较好,模拟结果风速日变化趋势及风速段（0~24时）分布与实测基本一致,模拟的风速峰值及概率偏大,主要是由于模式的精度不足以准确描述山地风场复杂下垫面造成的。模式最优参数化方案对风向模拟与实测主导风向分布一致且风向频率相似     

基于DMSP-OLS夜间灯光数据的长江经济带城镇体系空间格局演变（1992～2013）

研究长江经济带城镇体系空间格局演变,对于透视长江经济带城镇体系空间格局演变特征和规律以及促进长江经济带城镇体系空间格局优化发展有着重要意义。利用多时相同期Landsat卫星数据以及运用聚类分析方法对长江经济带夜间灯光数据进行校正,并采用其他辅助数据法对比分析获取城镇建成区面积的阈值,在此阈值基础之上选取景观总面积、总斑块数量和聚集度指数等总共8个典型景观格局指标, 继而使用FRAG-STATS 4.2 软件对1992~2013年间长江经济带城镇发展的空间格局变化进行计算分析。研究结果表明：(1）1992~2013年间,长江经济带城镇化快速扩展,城镇建成区面积增加了9.68倍,斑块数量增加了2.39倍,斑块密度也得到较大的增加,反映出长江经济带城镇数量不断增加和城镇建成区面积不断扩大;（2）景观斑块形状复杂度逐渐上升,中小城市不断壮大,同时出现了较多的新兴小城镇,总边界长度和平均边界密度的年均增长速度分别为21.56%和21.58%,体现了长江经济带城镇间聚集度越来越高,相互影响也越来越大;(3）最大斑块指数和聚集度指数两个指标在整体上呈现出逐年下降的态势,但是景观总面积、总斑块数量和斑块密度等8个指标在演变过程中均存在一定的波动和无序化,反映出长江经济带在城镇化过程中呈现出不规则和无序化的特征。     

Larval and Juvenile Fish Assemblage Structure of Inshore Habitats in the Middle Reaches of Li River,China: Spatial and Temporal Patterns in Relation to Abiotic Factors

To evaluate the effect of abiotic factors on larval and juvenile fish assemblage in shallow waters of middle reaches of Li River, Guilin, China. Samplings were taken monthly at 7 stations in the mainstream and 2 stations in 3 tributaries from May 2014 to April 2015. Synchronously, temperature, pH, turbidity, conductivity, dissolved oxygen rainfall and discharge were obtained. In all, 11.886 larval and juvenile fish from 18 species belonging to 8 families, 16 genera was captured. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) showed obvious significant difference between the environmental variables across sampling areas and months. The results of Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA) indicated that water temperature, turbidity, discharge and rainfall were dominant factors on larval and juvenile fish assemblage.     

原子荧光法测定水中汞的原子化条件研究

分别采用热原子化原子荧光法(热汞法)和冷原子化原子荧光法(冷汞法)测定水中汞,比较了两种方法的检出限、线性相关系数、准确度和精密度的差异。冷汞法和热汞法的检出限分别为0.003和0.01μg/L,标准曲线相关系数分别为0.999 9和0.999 7,加标回收率范围分别为102%~106%和106%~113%。结果表明,冷汞法比热汞法具有更低的检出限,灵敏度和准确度也略优于热汞法。对于冷汞法,提高负高压有利于提高方法的灵敏度、准确度,并具有更低的方法检出限。     

Technological innovation paths toward green industry in China

With the environmental carrying capacity reaching its limits and the decreasing margin benefits of traditional production factors, the green transformation and green development through technological innovations has been a major direction for the future development of Chinese industries. However, the characteristics and heterogeneities of various types of industries call for different approaches regarding technological innovations. How to choose the most effective mode of technological innovation according to the characteristics of a certain industry has been a key issue. This paper measures the green total factor productivity of 32 industrial trades using the Slacks Based Measure(SBM)-DDF method. The effects of three innovation modes in the green transformation of industrial industry, including the independent innovation(Ⅱ), the technology introduction(TI), and the government support(GS), are empirically analyzed based on industry heterogeneity. Results indicate that the green total factor productivities of different industries show significant differences if taking into account the energy input and the undesirable output of pollutant emissions. The green total factor productivities of traditional high input,high pollution, and high energy consumption industrial trades were significantly lower than those with obvious green features. The year of 2009 is a leap year for the industrial green transformation in China. For resource-intensive industries, the II and the GS are the important ways to achieve green transformation. For labor-intensive industries, the TI is the best path to achieve green transformation, while for technology-intensive industries, the II is the primary driving force for the promotion of green developments. In addition, the innovation-compensating effect of the current Chinese environmental regulations to the resource-intensive industries has been revealed. Improving the overall scale and the industrial concentration of the industries is also beneficial for the green transformation of the industries.     

长江三角洲城市群工业用水效率评价及时空差异研究

在水资源约束趋紧的背景下,选取长江三角洲城市群中26个城市2005~2014年的面板数据,运用SBM模型对工业用水效率进行测算,并基于可分解的泰尔指数分析长江三角洲城市群内部工业用水效率的空间差异。结果显示：（1）长江三角洲城市群工业用水效率水平整体偏低,在不考虑与考虑非期望产出的情况下,工业用水效率10a平均值分别为 0.591 8.和 0.519 7;（2）工业用水效率的地区内部差异是造成总差异的主要部分,并且有随时间递增的趋势,其中安徽省对于地区内部差异的贡献率最大,其次为浙江省,江苏省贡献率最低;（3）江苏省各城市工业用水效率虽然差异不大但整体水平较低,而上海市工业用水效率较高并处于稳步上升状态。因此,缩小地区内部差异是实现长江三角洲城市群工业用水效率整体上升的重要途径。     

Soil surface Hg emission flux in coalfield in Wuda,Inner Mongolia,China

Hg emission flux from various land covers, such as forests, wetlands, and urban areas, have been investigated. China has the largest area of coalfield in the world, but data of Hg flux of coalfields, especially, those with coal fires, are seriously limited. In this study, Hg fluxes of a coalfield were measured using the dynamic flux chamber (DFC) method, coupled with a Lumex multifunctional Hg analyzer RA-915+ (Lumex Ltd., Russia). The results show that the Hg flux in Wuda coalfield ranged from 4 to 318 ng m^?2 h^?1, and the average value for different areas varied, e.g., coal-fire area 99 and 177 ng m^?2 h^?1; no coal-fire area 19 and 32 ng m^?2 h^?1; and backfilling area 53 ng m^?2 h^?1. Hg continued to be emitted from an underground coal seam, even if there were no phenomena, such as vents, cracks, and smog, of coal fire on the soil surface. This phenomenon occurred in all area types, i.e., coal-fire area, no coal-fire area, and backfilling area, which is universal in Wuda coalfield. Considering that many coalfields in northern China are similar to Wuda coalfield, they may be large sources of atmospheric Hg. The correlations of Hg emission flux with influence factors, such as sunlight intensity, soil surface temperature, and atmospheric Hg content, were also investigated for Wuda coalfield.

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