The growth discourse,growth policy and sustainable development: two thought experiments

This paper addresses three aspects of ‘growth’: the discourse, the policy, and the impacts. The growth discourse claims that the central factor for social, economic, political and environmental progress is economic growth – it is assumed to create wealth, and provide the necessary means for social and environmental purposes. On the basis of the growth discourse, different growth policies can be derived, based on different economic and political ideologies.In order to reveal the implications of de facto degrowth, two thought experiments are conducted, for physical and economic end-to-growth strategies. The latter is capable of meeting environmental objectives, but implies significant social tensions and hardships and calls for transition strategies consisting of carefully designed steps.     

Parameterizing,evaluating and comparing metapopulation models with data from individual-based simulations

Due to the lack of sufficient data and appropriate ecological information parameterizing predictive population dynamical models usually is a difficult task. The approach proposed in this study is meant to overcome this problem by using detailed individual-based simulations to generate artificial data. With short-term data samples, the models to be investigated can be parameterized and their predictions be compared. The flexibility of individual-based simulations as experimental tools also facilitates the evaluation and comparison of different (aggregated) model types. The presented approach is a step towards unifying models of different complexity. As an example we applied it to two metapopulation models of insect species in a highly fragmented landscape: the well-known incidence function model with a patch-based representation of space and a grid-based analogue. The models are tested with respect to their data requirement and recommendations for a better data sampling are derived.     

Maternal rank affects reproductive success of male Barbary macaques (Macaca sylvanus): evidence from DNA fingerprinting

Summary Paternity determination by oligonucleotide fingerprinting confirms that maternal rank affects the reproductive success of male Barbary macaques (Macaca sylvanus). High-born males began to reproduce significantly earlier and sired significantly more infants surviving to at least 1 year of age during the first 4 years of their reproductive career than low-born males. This relation was independent of the natal/non-natal status of the males, and was not affected by external conditions such as the level of intrasexual competition or the number of fertilizable females. Since high-ranking females in this population produced significantly more male offspring than low-ranking females, the data on sex ratio adjustment and comparative breeding success of sons and daughters are consistent with the predictions of the Trivers-Willard hypothesis. Offprint requests to: A. Paul     

The control of emigration and its consequences for the survival of populations

Dispersal is the key process enhancing the long-term persistence of metapopulations in heterogeneous and dynamic landscapes. However, any individual emigrating from a occupied patch also increases the risk of local population extinction. The consequences of this increase for metapopulation persistence likely depend on the control of emigration. In this paper, we present results of individual-based simulations to compare the consequences of density-independent (DIE) and density-dependent (DDE) emigration on the extinction risk of local populations and a two-patch metapopulation. (1) For completely isolated patches extinction risk increases linearly with realised emigration rates in the DIE scenario. (2) For the DDE scenario extinction risk is nearly insensitive to emigration as longs as emigration probabilities remain below ≈0.2. Survival chances are up to half an order of magnitude larger than for populations with DIE. (3) For low dispersal mortality both modes of emigration increase survival of a metapopulation by ca. one order of magnitude. (4) For high dispersal mortality only DDE can improve the global survival chances of the metapopulation. (5) With DDE individuals are only removed from a population at high population density and the risk of extinction due to demographic stochasticity is thus much smaller compared to the DIE scenario.With density-dependent emigration prospects of metapopulations survival may thus be much higher compared to a system with density-independent emigration. Consequently, the knowledge about the factors driving emigration may significantly affect our conclusions concerning the conservation status of species.